We finally got to see 90 pitches from Ian Anderson. The results were outstanding, but what about the arsenal responsible for those results?
FA: 94.2 mph (Grade 55), -2.3" xMov (Grade 35), 9.2" zMov (Grade 70/75)
My expectations were wrong, and my eye test during the game was spot on. This is a straight as an arrow FA with plus-plus or better rise. The most interesting part is his 2001 RPM spin rate on the pitch ranks him #414 out of 427 MLB pitchers who have thrown 25+ FAs in 2020. How is this possible? Well, we all saw him come straight over the top, resulting in almost perfect backspin (meaning very high spin efficiency). That same pure back spin gives him very little arm side run, and means a SI is likely not something he can add easily without altering his arm slot. Overall this is a plus pitch, and I am pleasantly surprised.
CH: 6.5 mph delta (Grade 45), -5.8" xMov (Grade 35/40), 5.0" zMov (Grade 50)
The eye test was mostly right, though I expected to see more sink on this pitch. Overall, this is an average or worse CH, but he seems to be able to locate and execute it well, which makes it play up a bit.
CU: 80.2 mph (Grade 55), 0.8" xMov (Grade 30), -4.2" zMov (Grade 50)
The CU grades out better than I expected, and is probably average-ish overall. The actual spin rate on it is 2076, and clearly higher than the 1700 that was kicked around for a couple years now...so no real surprise there. That spin rate ranks #246 out of 271 MLB pitches who have thrown 10+ CUs in 2020.
Command:
It's obviously way too early to grade command, but we saw the guy fill up the strike zone last night despite being fired up for his MLB debut. We saw him locate the CH well. I have no doubt he's closer to the FV half of the 45/55 grades FG hung on his command.
Overall:
We saw a straight rising FA, an average-ish CU, and a CH that's average-ish but played up due to good execution. Due to his over the top arm slot, nothing moves side to side, but he gets good up and down movement. Watching him on TV I figured the CH was his main weapon, but after looking at the data his rising FA is his main pitch that makes everything else more effective.
A single plus pitch and a couple of average-ish secondary pitches with average control is pretty much the definition of a #4 SP. It's basically one step up in value from a BP arm. Maybe his command plays up and he flashes stints of being a #3 type guy, but his low spin rates leave very little opportunity to add additional secondary pitches as was the case with Fried.
I expect to see Anderson showcase a FA with poor rise, and tomorrow I expect to be calling for him to switch to a sinker.
I expect to see Anderson throw a usable CU with a spin rate much higher than 1700, but only be a pitch good enough for early strikes.
I expect to see a plus or better change that will be the key to any MLB success he has, as it is likely his out pitch.
I expect to see command issues while he over throws, followed by a lot of complaining on this board.
So far....
FA: 95+, little horizontal movement, may have good rise
CU: 80-81, not much movement, spin rates may be an issue
CH: 88-89 mediocre speed difference from FA, minimal horizontal, seems to have good sink, and based on hitter's reactions so far it mimics the FA well
FA: 94.2 mph (Grade 55), -2.3" xMov (Grade 35), 9.2" zMov (Grade 70/75)
My expectations were wrong, and my eye test during the game was spot on. This is a straight as an arrow FA with plus-plus or better rise. The most interesting part is his 2001 RPM spin rate on the pitch ranks him #414 out of 427 MLB pitchers who have thrown 25+ FAs in 2020. How is this possible? Well, we all saw him come straight over the top, resulting in almost perfect backspin (meaning very high spin efficiency). That same pure back spin gives him very little arm side run, and means a SI is likely not something he can add easily without altering his arm slot. Overall this is a plus pitch, and I am pleasantly surprised.
CH: 6.5 mph delta (Grade 45), -5.8" xMov (Grade 35/40), 5.0" zMov (Grade 50)
The eye test was mostly right, though I expected to see more sink on this pitch. Overall, this is an average or worse CH, but he seems to be able to locate and execute it well, which makes it play up a bit.
CU: 80.2 mph (Grade 55), 0.8" xMov (Grade 30), -4.2" zMov (Grade 50)
The CU grades out better than I expected, and is probably average-ish overall. The actual spin rate on it is 2076, and clearly higher than the 1700 that was kicked around for a couple years now...so no real surprise there. That spin rate ranks #246 out of 271 MLB pitches who have thrown 10+ CUs in 2020.
Command:
It's obviously way too early to grade command, but we saw the guy fill up the strike zone last night despite being fired up for his MLB debut. We saw him locate the CH well. I have no doubt he's closer to the FV half of the 45/55 grades FG hung on his command.
Overall:
We saw a straight rising FA, an average-ish CU, and a CH that's average-ish but played up due to good execution. Due to his over the top arm slot, nothing moves side to side, but he gets good up and down movement. Watching him on TV I figured the CH was his main weapon, but after looking at the data his rising FA is his main pitch that makes everything else more effective.
A single plus pitch and a couple of average-ish secondary pitches with average control is pretty much the definition of a #4 SP. It's basically one step up in value from a BP arm. Maybe his command plays up and he flashes stints of being a #3 type guy, but his low spin rates leave very little opportunity to add additional secondary pitches as was the case with Fried.
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