Ian Anderson's stuff

Carp said:
Only deception? None. But Dontrelle Willis and Alex Wood come to mind as guys who had success in part due to deception. Of course they also had unique deliveries and were LHP.
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Nomo but I think his pitches were filthy too.
 
Enscheff said:
The FA is probably plus, but I mostly agree. He’s more 4 than TOR, or even MOR. However, on a team with exactly 1 SP, that’s quite valuable.
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2-3 WAR guy through team control would be amazing. That is what I see. If I had to put money on it, I would lower it to 1.5 to 2.5 WAR.

That might not make people happy given his prospect rating and his drafting before Kyle Lewis. I was on team draft Kyle Lewis after Senzel went. I really wanted Senzel. They wanted Anderson, Wentz and Muller. We shall see if Muller is able to make an argument for Anderson plus Muller over Lewis.

I think Muller is going to be best as an Andrew Miller style Reliever. I think Kyle is going to win this argument hands down.
 
Enscheff said:
Can you name a single pitcher who used "deception" to have success for more than a few starts?
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Clearly not anymore. The game has changed so much in terms of the tools to provide analysis and the fact that guys work year-round on their game now. Back in the Dark Ages when I first started watching the game, there were a few guys with really odd deliveries that would keep batters off-stride. Warren Spahn always said--in a very wise-a** way--that he only needed two pitches: The one the batter thought we was going to throw and the one was going to throw. That simply won't work anymore and a lot of it is due to the kinds of data you post here. Teams just know guys a lot more thoroughly now through the data and video tape. The last two guys I remember whose deception held up over the long period were Luis Tiant (after he re-invented himself) and Fernando Valenzuela.
 
50PoundHead said:
Clearly not anymore. The game has changed so much in terms of the tools to provide analysis and the fact that guys work year-round on their game now. Back in the Dark Ages when I first started watching the game, there were a few guys with really odd deliveries that would keep batters off-stride. Warren Spahn always said--in a very wise-a** way--that he only needed two pitches: The one the batter thought we was going to throw and the one was going to throw. That simply won't work anymore and a lot of it is due to the kinds of data you post here. Teams just know guys a lot more thoroughly now through the data and video tape. The last two guys I remember whose deception held up over the long period were Luis Tiant (after he re-invented himself) and Fernando Valenzuela.
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Although he's struggled mightily over the last few seasons, you could probably add Cueto to that list - not sure that a significant part of his success shouldn't be attributed to deception. He had good but not great stuff for the majority of his career, and I'm not sure how much of it was owed to having significantly better movement than others during the time period. He'd probably make for a decent case-study.
 
Russ2dollas said:
2-3 WAR guy through team control would be amazing. That is what I see. If I had to put money on it, I would lower it to 1.5 to 2.5 WAR.

That might not make people happy given his prospect rating and his drafting before Kyle Lewis. I was on team draft Kyle Lewis after Senzel went. I really wanted Senzel. They wanted Anderson, Wentz and Muller. We shall see if Muller is able to make an argument for Anderson plus Muller over Lewis.

I think Muller is going to be best as an Andrew Miller style Reliever. I think Kyle is going to win this argument hands down.
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While Wentz didn't contribute anything at the MLB level for the Braves, he did get Greene in trade. We can't forget that when assessing the fruits of the Anderson/Wentz/Muller trio over Lewis.
 
Russ2dollas said:
2-3 WAR guy through team control would be amazing. That is what I see. If I had to put money on it, I would lower it to 1.5 to 2.5 WAR.

That might not make people happy given his prospect rating and his drafting before Kyle Lewis. I was on team draft Kyle Lewis after Senzel went. I really wanted Senzel. They wanted Anderson, Wentz and Muller. We shall see if Muller is able to make an argument for Anderson plus Muller over Lewis.

I think Muller is going to be best as an Andrew Miller style Reliever. I think Kyle is going to win this argument hands down.
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Supposedly the Braves plan was to get Trammell at #40 as it was believed his bonus requirements would allow him to drop that far. It was a bit of a surprise when the Reds picked him at #35 and then paid him mid-1st bonus money. While I doubt that left the Braves grasping, it threw a wrench into the gear box. Curious to see how Wentz recovers from surgery.
 
50PoundHead said:
Supposedly the Braves plan was to get Trammell at #40 as it was believed his bonus requirements would allow him to drop that far. It was a bit of a surprise when the Reds picked him at #35 and then paid him mid-1st bonus money. While I doubt that left the Braves grasping, it threw a wrench into the gear box. Curious to see how Wentz recovers from surgery.
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had not heard that. It is interesting.

That is the risk with the braves strategy.

If Anderson ends up averaging 2 wins for the next 6 years, that is not a horrible pick despite the high draft pick.
 
50PoundHead said:
Supposedly the Braves plan was to get Trammell at #40 as it was believed his bonus requirements would allow him to drop that far. It was a bit of a surprise when the Reds picked him at #35 and then paid him mid-1st bonus money. While I doubt that left the Braves grasping, it threw a wrench into the gear box. Curious to see how Wentz recovers from surgery.
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This is why I hate the strategy of going underslot with a high pick, especially a top 5 pick. You have to suffer through some truly wretched baseball to get a top 3 pick. To me you always go BPA there.
 
striker42 said:
This is why I hate the strategy of going underslot with a high pick, especially a top 5 pick. You have to suffer through some truly wretched baseball to get a top 3 pick. To me you always go BPA there.
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Baseball is the only sport that you don’t pick the best player on the board at your position. I hate the way it’s operated.
 
striker42 said:
This is why I hate the strategy of going underslot with a high pick, especially a top 5 pick. You have to suffer through some truly wretched baseball to get a top 3 pick. To me you always go BPA there.
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Correa was underslot at #1.
however he’s the exception not the rule. i agree in general.
HOWEVER however if Anderson can produce 3ish war for like 5 years i suspects that’s above average for a 1st rounder. add in what Wentz and Muller get/give you
 
Well, he went six innings in his first start against the Yankees(like the only starter besides Fried and Soroka to do that probably this year). At worst, it looks like he can throw strikes and eat innings. He “should” be in the rotation for years to come. I’ve watched so many of these high prospects looked scared to death and have problems locating. Watching him, he acted like he had been in the big leagues for a while. Was impressive.
 
Enscheff said:
We finally got to see 90 pitches from Ian Anderson. The results were outstanding, but what about the arsenal responsible for those results?





FA: 94.2 mph (Grade 55), -2.3" xMov (Grade 35), 9.2" zMov (Grade 70/75)

My expectations were wrong, and my eye test during the game was spot on. This is a straight as an arrow FA with plus-plus or better rise. The most interesting part is his 2001 RPM spin rate on the pitch ranks him #414 out of 427 MLB pitchers who have thrown 25+ FAs in 2020. How is this possible? Well, we all saw him come straight over the top, resulting in almost perfect backspin (meaning very high spin efficiency). That same pure back spin gives him very little arm side run, and means a SI is likely not something he can add easily without altering his arm slot. Overall this is a plus pitch, and I am pleasantly surprised.

CH: 6.5 mph delta (Grade 45), -5.8" xMov (Grade 35/40), 5.0" zMov (Grade 50)

The eye test was mostly right, though I expected to see more sink on this pitch. Overall, this is an average or worse CH, but he seems to be able to locate and execute it well, which makes it play up a bit.

CU: 80.2 mph (Grade 55), 0.8" xMov (Grade 30), -4.2" zMov (Grade 50)

The CU grades out better than I expected, and is probably average-ish overall. The actual spin rate on it is 2076, and clearly higher than the 1700 that was kicked around for a couple years now...so no real surprise there. That spin rate ranks #246 out of 271 MLB pitches who have thrown 10+ CUs in 2020.

Command:

It's obviously way too early to grade command, but we saw the guy fill up the strike zone last night despite being fired up for his MLB debut. We saw him locate the CH well. I have no doubt he's closer to the FV half of the 45/55 grades FG hung on his command.

Overall:

We saw a straight rising FA, an average-ish CU, and a CH that's average-ish but played up due to good execution. Due to his over the top arm slot, nothing moves side to side, but he gets good up and down movement. Watching him on TV I figured the CH was his main weapon, but after looking at the data his rising FA is his main pitch that makes everything else more effective.

A single plus pitch and a couple of average-ish secondary pitches with average control is pretty much the definition of a #4 SP. It's basically one step up in value from a BP arm. Maybe his command plays up and he flashes stints of being a #3 type guy, but his low spin rates leave very little opportunity to add additional secondary pitches as was the case with Fried.
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Last night we watched Anderson pick up pretty much where he left off, and have a great follow up performance to his stellar debut. He mostly mixed FA/CH the first 2 times through the lineup, and then relied heavily on the CU the 3rd time through. In the last inning he was clearly out of gas, but was still able to execute the CU over and over to get through the lineup a 3rd time. Granted, the lineups the Yankees and Red Sox threw out there weren't exactly world beaters, but there was a lot to like about both performances.

Several of us noted Anderson's CU looked better last night, but we all know the eye test on TV is unreliable...to put it nicely. However, in this case we were mostly right. Anderson was putting 2133 RPM on the CU last night, a nice improvement over the 2076 value in his debut. We can't get movement split by game, but his CU overall has improved as follows (15 pitches in debut, 30 pitches in second game):

80.2 mph up to 80.6 mph
0.8" xMov up to 1.1"
-4.2" zMov up to -5.1"

Now we have to be careful here because these readings were taken at 2 different parks using 2 different Trackman systems that may be calibrated differently, but knowing the number of pitches he threw in both games, we can use middle school algebra to solve for X and say the CU last night looked something like 5.5" of sink on the pitch. Adding over an inch of movement to his CU gives it Grade 55 drop, and is probably something we could have truly noticed with the eye test.

Anderson's execution of the CH was already known to be advanced for his age. Last night we saw him execute the CU similarly at the end of the game, which allowed him to navigate the lineup a 3rd time. This is precisely how a guy with #4 stuff goes from being a ~2 WAR SP to a 3+ WAR #3, and is what is meant when folks say "but his command allows his stuff to play up". Incremental improvements in the stuff like we saw last night, either through adding a bit of spin rate, or tweaking the rotation axis to get more efficient use of the spin, is how we see guys improve until the stuff starts to naturally fade as they age.

Oh, and that 1700 RPM value reported on his CU was obviously a joke by some FO member. We all guessed it was wrong, and we were right.
 
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Enscheff thanks for the analysis.

I am going to assume Soroka will be pitching next year as a starter but not up to his standards. I'm thinking about a Bauer, Fried, Soroka, Anderson, Other starting 5 and they are good thoughts.
 
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