Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Southcack77 said:
The Braves have about 67.5 guaranteed. If they pick up O'Day that would put them at 70m.

If they offered everyone arbitration, the ceiling there would probably be about 30m, but that includes picking up options on guys like Camargo, Folty, Duvall, Jackson. Those 4 are probably more than half of the Braves arbitration expenses between them.

I think the Braves are likely to start free agency with somewhere between 85-95m in payroll.

I'm not sure anyone really understands what the economics of next season look like. The economics of this season were pretty austere as pretty much no one took on much money or bad deals at the deadline.

If mid and small market teams are bleeding players the beneficiaries are still likely to be big market clubs, but the Braves are somewhat well positioned to benefit if they have a reasonable payroll limit.
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"Reasonable" is the operative term that players and fans are going to whine about though.

No fans in the stands (as well as the resulting revenue streams like parking, merchandising, food and beer sales, etc.) while the players required full prorated salaries is a huge loss. The players aren't SHARING in anything here - they're being paid in full for every game that is played in 2020. The players were shortsighted and selfish - they wanted to get paid as if things were "normal", and they weren't.

The ~ $150 million payroll was set because the projected "normal" revenues would have supported that. The players took their normal piece of the pie while ownership lost its *ss on gate revenue, merchandising revenue, parking revenue, and food/beer sales. On top of that, the revenues The Battery was expected to generate tanked.

A 2021 payroll around $120 million would be a gift. If you're at $95 million with your figures and you bring Ozuna back you have less than $10 million to spend. Happy shopping!
 
Simply put the rotation needs to be improved. They should be able to add someone of significance to the rotation since there isn’t a lot of money tied up there. No more Hamels, King Felix, Tomlin’s, etc to try and outsmart the league.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Won't be a work stoppage.

The 2020 COVID season is the best thing that could have happened for the owners and players in terms of forcing a negotiation the CBA. Let's face it, with COVID19, the shortened season, the whole social justice part of 2020 (whether you agree with it or not, doesn't matter) and the likely economic downturn experienced by many coming out of the 2020 COVID and political scene, baseball as we know it won't be the same for a while, if ever (although I think memories tend to be short and most will be back sooner than later).

Neither side can afford to have a work stoppage under any circumstances anytime soon. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see them both agree to kick the can down the road and just extend the current agreement a few years so they could let things stabilize before they get their fight on later.
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Disagree 100%. There will be a stoppage and it will be nasty.

These guys are stupid. They almost ruined this year because there is no trust.

This isn't a negotiation about tweaks. They need to blow up the system. If teams are going to be smart and not pay for past performance, then the players are going to have to get more money upfront or become free agents earlier. The teams are cleaning up now and will fight not to give on that given they will have lost money two years in a row.
 
Southcack77 said:
The Braves have about 67.5 guaranteed. If they pick up O'Day that would put them at 70m.

If they offered everyone arbitration, the ceiling there would probably be about 30m, but that includes picking up options on guys like Camargo, Folty, Duvall, Jackson. Those 4 are probably more than half of the Braves arbitration expenses between them.

I think the Braves are likely to start free agency with somewhere between 85-95m in payroll.

I'm not sure anyone really understands what the economics of next season look like. The economics of this season were pretty austere as pretty much no one took on much money or bad deals at the deadline.

If mid and small market teams are bleeding players the beneficiaries are still likely to be big market clubs, but the Braves are somewhat well positioned to benefit if they have a reasonable payroll limit.
Click to expand...

I think $120m is a good guess as that’s the pre-Battery payroll level, which is now probably revenue neutral at best next season. Camargo and Folty are pretty easy guys to let walk, and Duvall as part of a platoon in the OF is probably a good guy to pair with someone like Markakis. It is conceivable the Braves let Ozuna walk and have an OF mix of Acuna, Duvall, Ender, and Markakis with Pache on the verge of taking over mid-year.

Riley has shown enough to probably get an extended look at 3b in 2021. There may be no reason to bring in another C on an MLB deal with Contreras appearing to be ready For at least part time duty behind TDA. Every other position seems more or less set.

If the Braves have $30m+ to spend, I’m guessing it goes to 1-2 SPs on short deals...exactly like how Hamels was supposed to play out. The results were horrible, but the plan was solid. Bauer would be ideal, but there will be options at the end of the off-season like there always are.

And trades...this offseason could be the craziest trade market we’ve ever seen as clubs try to free up cash.
 
Enscheff said:
I think $120m is a good guess as that’s the pre-Battery payroll level, which is now probably revenue neutral at best next season. Camargo and Folty are pretty easy guys to let walk, and Duvall as part of a platoon in the OF is probably a good guy to pair with someone like Markakis. It is conceivable the Braves let Ozuna walk and have an OF mix of Acuna, Duvall, Ender, and Markakis with Pache on the verge of taking over mid-year.

Riley has shown enough to probably get an extended look at 3b in 2021. There may be no reason to bring in another C on an MLB deal with Contreras appearing to be ready For at least part time duty behind TDA. Every other position seems more or less set.

If the Braves have $30m+ to spend, I’m guessing it goes to 1-2 SPs on short deals...exactly like how Hamels was supposed to play out. The results were horrible, but the plan was solid. Bauer would be ideal, but there will be options at the end of the off-season like there always are.

And trades...this offseason could be the craziest trade market we’ve ever seen as clubs try to free up cash.
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In your scenario, one of the worst OFs in baseball with one of the OFs being in the top tier of OFs in all of baseball. That shows you how bad the other guys are. I was a bit disappointed that they didn't take a longer look at Starling Marte at the deadline. Help for this year and, with one more year of control, a sensible bridge to Pache and Waters. The finances being what they are probably made Marte cost prohibitive.
 
When does Cohen take over Mets. Might nightmare scenario is that he comes in and buys up all of the talent bc he is the only one willing to spend. He's a billionaire. In real life I assume there will be some collusion where the cheap MLB owners say you can't come in our club if you are going to drive up labor costs and make us look bad.
 
I think it's possible guys like Ordozzi, Stroman, Paxton and Quintana would entertain a one year deal to pump up their values and/or hope there is more money 2 years post COVID. We might be able to get two of those for 20-30 million. Not amazing but much better than today. If we have that much to spend.

If we lose Ozuna we will need another bat.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I think it's possible guys like Ordozzi, Stroman, Paxton and Quintana would entertain a one year deal to pump up their values and/or hope there is more money 2 years post COVID. We might be able to get two of those for 20-30 million. Not amazing but much better than today. If we have that much to spend.

If we lose Ozuna we will need another bat.
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I think there will be, as you point out, a number of buy-low pitchers (boy, did Odorizzi guess wrong) so I think we should be able to patch something together. While the rotation is important, I'm with you on concerns about the offense if Ozuna departs.
 
Russ2dollas said:
When does Cohen take over Mets. Might nightmare scenario is that he comes in and buys up all of the talent bc he is the only one willing to spend. He's a billionaire. In real life I assume there will be some collusion where the cheap MLB owners say you can't come in our club if you are going to drive up labor costs and make us look bad.
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Probably next season. Mets are in an interesting position. They currently have one of the worst farm teams (along with the Nationals and Phillies). They have one more year of Syndegaard, DeGrom will be 33 next year. Their hitting core consists of Pete Alonso (26 next year), Jeff McNeil (29 next year), who are both struggling mightily this year. Along Dominic Smith who finally broke out (but is really a DH being asked to play LF) with Michael Conforto who has one year of team control left and will be 28 next year. Top pitching prospect David Peterson has held his own and will be 26 next year. So they have A LOT of holes to fill in the near term to remain competitive. There is a good argument to be made that they should have begun a rebuild the past couple of years, but instead they went for it.
 
Russ2dollas said:
What I’d like to see is us look at springer. Down year this year. Maybe he will take the aa one year deal. If not he’s still 30 with solid obp even when not hitting.

Add Springer and it gives versatility. You could move waters. You could have a future of Springer, pache, acuna waters if they all hit . Dh allows you to play all 4 and have an amazing defense. Springer hits rh well.

Take all the money and go springer plus Bauer. Then look to trade to shake loose another starter.

Replace melancin, Greene, etc with guys on 60 man and a one year vet.

Dump ender, eat the money. Let duval go. Sign neck for less than 5 to dh and ph and veteran lead.

Let flowers go and ease Contreras in as the second catcher.

Keep Hech. Lose Culberson.
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I’d keep Flowers (framing alone is worth keeping him) and Duvall has been good for us I’d like to see him as 4th OF platoon player.
 
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With the cost-cutting we expect is on the way, Brantley looks more and more intriguing to me. He fits as a left-handed DH/LF replacement for Ozuna and Markakis. Probably only going to get a one-year deal, and he should come much cheaper than Ozuna. If you could get him for ~ $10 million you've cut $12 million from this season's payroll and replaced two guys without having the offense take a huge hit - while freeing up money to add a veteran SP. Keep Duvall and Brantley really helps with lineup balance since you could keep hitting Freeman second...

Acuna
Freeman
d'Arnaud
Brantley
Duvall
Ozzie
Dansby
Riley
Inciarte (assuming AA can't find a way out)
 
clvclv said:
With the cost-cutting we expect is on the way, Brantley looks more and more intriguing to me. He fits as a left-handed DH/LF replacement for Ozuna and Markakis. Probably only going to get a one-year deal, and he should come much cheaper than Ozuna. If you could get him for ~ $10 million you've cut $12 million from this season's payroll and replaced two guys without having the offense take a huge hit - while freeing up money to add a veteran SP. Keep Duvall and Brantley really helps with lineup balance since you could keep hitting Freeman second...

Acuna
Freeman
d'Arnaud
Brantley
Duvall
Ozzie
Dansby
Riley
Inciarte (assuming AA can't find a way out)
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Would you say no matter what Pache starts next year? Ender bench?
 
TheBravos said:
Would you say no matter what Pache starts next year? Ender bench?
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I don't think so. If they're unable to get someone to take a little bit of Ender's salary, there's going to be little reason for them not to game his clock. If you're going to be responsible for the entire $9 million (almost), you might as well platoon him with Acuna for the first month and hope he shockingly gets hot - or someone develops a desperate need for a CF.

I actually think there may be more of a chance that Shewmake starts the season on the roster than there is that Pache does as things stand today. I do think Pache will be given a legitimate chance to win the job next spring, but he's going to have to blow them away to win it. Carrying Shewmake gives them an easy way to cut costs - if you're paying Ender anyway you might as well play him until Pache forces his way onto the roster.
 
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I'm going to guess the payroll is 100-120 million. Keeping 5 million for the deadline. I don't think it's going to be pretty.

Ozuna gets replaced with Matt Joyce or David Peralta
 
I don't see any way or reason Shewmake would be on the team. He doesn't have hardly any professional at bats. Where does he play? He's Dansby insurance.

Pache likely needs to go to AAA and show he can hit for at least long enough to get another year of control. Pache really needs to show he can hit before we put him in MLB, unless they find a sucker to dump Ender on and we are pinching pennies.
 
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