2020 Field

Pew has a poll out of over 10,000 voters.

The massive sample size is great because it gives you some more reliable reads on particular groups that are very sparsely sampled in the other polls. We get to see, for example, that Jorgensen's support skews young. The future is libertarian?

Interesting to see that Asians are more strongly for credibly accused creepy joe than are Hispanics. Personally, I know quite a few older Asian voters who voted for very poorly chosen one in 2016. They are naturally conservative in their politics. But boy have they turned against him. Some are so angry they have been contributing to down ballot Democrats (with my encouragement of course). A couple weeks ago, I went to pick up some Indian takeout. I've known the owner for a long time and never discussed politics with him. He talks about India, about his children, but never about politics. But he couldn't contain himself anymore. It was an interesting convo. He was quite emotional about his concerns for our country.

Also worth noting that 8% of voters who went for very poorly chosen one in 2016 will be voting for someone else this time. I think this number has probably grown a bit the past few days.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...de-leads-on-coronavirus-unifying-the-country/
 
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This part could lead to an interesting election night:

As voters consider how to cast their ballot in the 2020 election this fall, there are sizable gaps in vote preference by method of voting.

Mirroring divides in preferred method of voting, Biden holds an advantage among registered voters who plan to cast their ballots in person before Election Day: 55% of these voters say they plan to support Biden or lean toward Biden, compared with 40% of in-person, early voters who plan to cast a ballot for Trump.

Biden’s advantage among absentee or mail voters is even larger: 69% of these voters say they plan to cast a ballot – or have already cast their ballot – for Biden. Only about a quarter say they plan to vote for Trump (27%).

However, Trump captures a sizable majority of those who plan to vote in person on Election Day; 63% of these voters favor Trump, compared with three-in-ten who plan to vote for Biden.
 
The Pew data add to something that other polling data have hinted at. Which is that there is a large group of apolitical younger voters who are just tired of very poorly chosen one's act. This is not much discussed. We know about the yutes for Bernie. And the yutes for this and the yutes for that. But there is a bigger group that is not really for anything. They are just tired of very poorly chosen one.

If I were in the Biden campaign I would focus a lot of my voter turnout efforts on this group. They are somewhat apathetic and providing them with a nudge to vote will have a bigger payoff than with other groups.

From the Pew poll:

Only about half of registered voters ages 18 to 34 (52%) say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with much larger shares of voters in older age categories.
 
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Georgia's in the bag.

The big one is Texas.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see a deep red state or two go for credibly accused creepy joe. Maybe Alaska. Maybe South Carolina.
 
One of the more astute observations at predicting presidential elections I've heard is to look where the candidates are going and where they're spending money leading up to the election. No matter how good the polling is we see, you can bet the candidates have better polls.

Right now we're seeing Trump pouring money in to places like Texas and Georgia. States he should be carrying with ease. States that the next Republican candidate probably will carry with ease. He's also pulling ads in states like Ohio. That's a really bad sign.

I think the problem Trump has is with moderate Republicans. He's got his fanatic base but I think a lot of affluent conservatives who flocked to the polls to vote against Hillary have been turned off by Trump's antics while in office and aren't nearly as scared of Biden.
 
striker42 said:
One of the more astute observations at predicting presidential elections I've heard is to look where the candidates are going and where they're spending money leading up to the election. No matter how good the polling is we see, you can bet the candidates have better polls.

Right now we're seeing Trump pouring money in to places like Texas and Georgia. States he should be carrying with ease. States that the next Republican candidate probably will carry with ease. He's also pulling ads in states like Ohio. That's a really bad sign.

I think the problem Trump has is with moderate Republicans. He's got his fanatic base but I think a lot of affluent conservatives who flocked to the polls to vote against Hillary have been turned off by Trump's antics while in office and aren't nearly as scared of Biden.
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This is me, though I didn't vote last election, he was my preference between him and HRC. 2 straight elections of **** choices for POTUS, but no way can I, in good conscience, vote for Trump. Biden at least is more like Obama than HRC. And even if you're against his policies, Obama wasn't nearly as bad as most Republicans pretend he is.
 
Carp said:
This is me, though I didn't vote last election, he was my preference between him and HRC. 2 straight elections of **** choices for POTUS, but no way can I, in good conscience, vote for Trump. Biden at least is more like Obama than HRC. And even if you're against his policies, Obama wasn't nearly as bad as most Republicans pretend he is.
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This is why I think you'll see Jo Jorgensen get a record number of votes for a Libertarian candidate. There are a lot of conservatives out there who don't feel like they can vote for either candidate.
 
Donald Trump came for Steve Schmidt (founder of Lincoln Project) on Twitter this morning. It did not go well. This is Steve’s reply:

You’ve never beaten me at anything.
This is our first dance. Did you like, Covita? We are so much better at this than your team of crooks, wife beaters, degenerates, weirdos and losers. You are losing.
We heard you loved Evita. You saw it so many times. Where will you live out your years in disgrace? Will you buy Jeffrey Epstein’s island? One last extra special deal from him? Or will you be drooling on yourself in a suite at Walter Reed? Maybe you will be in prison? I bet you fear that.
The Manhattan District Attorney may not be around to cover for you or your crooked kids anymore. Eliza Orlins doesn’t believe in different sets of rules for the Trumps. What about the State Attorney General? You know what you’ve done.
Oh, Donald. Who do you owe almost $500 million in personally guaranteed loans to? It's all coming down. You think you and your disgusting family are going to be in deal-flow next year? Are you really that delusional?
You are lucky Chris Wallace interrupted you after Joe Biden said you weren’t smart. You started to melt down. That’s the place that hurts the most. Right? Fred Sr., knew it. You’ve spent your whole life proving it. You aren’t very smart. You couldn’t take the SAT on your own. What was the real score? 970? We both know you know.
Are the steroids wearing off? Is the euphoria fading? Do you feel foggy? Tired? Do you ache? How is the breathing? Hmmm. Are you watching TV today? We will have some nice surprises for you. Everyone is laughing at you. You are a joke. A splendid moron turned deadly clown.
Did you watch Martha McSally in her debate against American hero, fighter pilot, test pilot, astronaut Capt. Mark Kelly? She is so embarrassed by you. She is ashamed and full of self-loathing for the choice she made in following you over the cliff. She is in free fall now. She will lose, like most of them, because of you.
We hear from the White House and the campaign everyday. They are betraying you. They are looking to get out alive and salvage careers and their names. It’s Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner vs. Donald Trump Jr., and Kimberly Guilfoyle on the inside. They are at war over scraps and who gets to command what will be the remnants of your rancid cult.
It’s almost over now. You are the greatest failure in American history. You are the worst president in American history. Disgrace will always precede your name. Your grandchildren and great-grandchildren will grow up ashamed of their names.
One day, I suppose there will be some small and not-much-visited library that bears your name. It will be the type of place where a drunk walks by, staring at the wall for a minute, before deciding it is beneath his dignity to piss on. That’s what is waiting for you.
Joe Biden is a better man. He’s smarter. He’s winning. Do you remember when you didn’t want to name Donald Trump Jr., Donald because you were worried about him being a loser named Donald? You were right about that. He is. But it is you who will be remembered as America’s greatest loser. You will be crushed in the election.
Shhhhhhhh.
 
Is William Barr, having seen the falling poll numbers, having 2nd thoughts on his big October surprise? Time is running out.
 
nsacpi said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...904202-095d-11eb-a166-dc429b380d10_story.html

A miffed President Trump pulled out of next week’s second presidential debate on Thursday after organizers said it would be held virtually “to protect the health and safety of all involved” given his coronavirus diagnosis — only to have his campaign demand hours later that the event go on as originally planned.

sowwy but that's not the way it works
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striker42 said:
One of the more astute observations at predicting presidential elections I've heard is to look where the candidates are going and where they're spending money leading up to the election. No matter how good the polling is we see, you can bet the candidates have better polls.

Right now we're seeing Trump pouring money in to places like Texas and Georgia. States he should be carrying with ease. States that the next Republican candidate probably will carry with ease. He's also pulling ads in states like Ohio. That's a really bad sign.

I think the problem Trump has is with moderate Republicans. He's got his fanatic base but I think a lot of affluent conservatives who flocked to the polls to vote against Hillary have been turned off by Trump's antics while in office and aren't nearly as scared of Biden.
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This is exactly correct.
 
striker42 said:
One of the more astute observations at predicting presidential elections I've heard is to look where the candidates are going and where they're spending money leading up to the election. No matter how good the polling is we see, you can bet the candidates have better polls.

Right now we're seeing Trump pouring money in to places like Texas and Georgia. States he should be carrying with ease. States that the next Republican candidate probably will carry with ease. He's also pulling ads in states like Ohio. That's a really bad sign.

I think the problem Trump has is with moderate Republicans. He's got his fanatic base but I think a lot of affluent conservatives who flocked to the polls to vote against Hillary have been turned off by Trump's antics while in office and aren't nearly as scared of Biden.
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If we could simply swap Trump out for almost anyone, I would sign up in a heartbeat. I'm only going to vote Trump because the idea of Dems in complete control of all three branches (and I mean branches, because they will absolutely pack the Court) is horrifying. A packed court, a gerrymandered Senate, and an uncapped House will mean the end of America. What's left will be it's fetid corpse, eaten from within by parasites.

The people worried about the so called damage Trump has done (what is it, exactly?) are about to learn the meaning of irreparable harm. We're fixing to go over the cliff.
 
Jaw said:
If we could simply swap Trump out for almost anyone, I would sign up in a heartbeat. I'm only going to vote Trump because the idea of Dems in complete control of all three branches (and I mean branches, because they will absolutely pack the Court) is horrifying. A packed court, a gerrymandered Senate, and an uncapped House will mean the end of America. What's left will be it's fetid corpse, eaten from within by parasites.

The people worried about the so called damage Trump has done (what is it, exactly?) are about to learn the meaning of irreparable harm. We're fixing to go over the cliff.
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same reason I'm voting for Trump.

In reality he hasn't done anything other than not start wars, undo.bad regulations... and cut taxes.

He has spent like a drunken sailer but they are all going to so whats the difference.

Trump hasn't tried to dictate my life. The dems can't speak 2 sentences without the word mandate
 
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sturg33 said:
same reason I'm voting for Trump.

In reality he hasn't done anything other than not start wars, undo.bad regulations... and cut taxes.

He has spent like a drunken sailer but they are all going to so whats the difference.

Trump hasn't tried to dictate my life. The dems can't speak 2 sentences without the word mandate
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and, he gave you $4000.

" Now that we have established what you are, we are free to negotiate the price"
so the old joke goes
 
Yeah that wasn't part of my post.

But yes, I prefer government letting me keep more of what I have earned... thats called freedom pal
 
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