For the most part the Dodgers only platoon at the bottom of the order. Here is their lineup with career OPS splits vs LHP/RHP
Betts (R) .888/.897
Seager (L) .786/.900
Turner (R) .828/.843
Muncy (L) .865/.835
Smith (R) .745/1.028
Bellinger (L) .832/.951
Pollock (R) .857/.788
Hernandez (R) .820/.673
Taylor(R) .776/.780
As we already know, this is a very good team top to bottom. There are very few places the Braves can go for outs, even with the platoon advantage (in bold). Even most of those are above MLB average offensive lines.
Snit probably wants to let Max face the full lineup 2x, and then face Seager the 3rd time with the platoon advantage if his pitch count is ~70 and facing Betts doesn't come in a high leverage spot. If Max is sitting at ~80 pitches and/or Betts is coming up a 3rd time in a high leverage spot, Matzek should probably be called upon.
The tough choice will happen after Max faces Seager the 3rd time. Snit probably shouldn't let Bellinger face a single LHP in this series, so it seems like one of the RHP BP studs should face Turner/Muncy/Smith (Smith's reverse splits come from a small career sample size, so it will be hard to put a lot of stock into them), and then a LHP to face Bellinger.
Snit should probably burn O'Day on the bottom half of the order, either to completely neutralize them, or to force the Dodgers into making substitutions in the mid/late innings.
Due to the 3 batter rule, it may be impossible to use a LHP vs Bellinger and then O'Day vs the bottom half. So, it might be best to let Matzek face Turner/Muncy/Smith/Bellinger before bringing in O'Day for the bottom half. If the Dodgers PH for Bellinger vs Matzek, this strategy allows the Braves to counter with a RHP, whereas if they bring in Matzek too late they won't be able to make the pitching change.
Tentative pitching plan:
Fried - faces 18-20 batters depending on the situation when Betts bats a 3rd time.
Matzek - faces 4 or 6 batters through Bellinger depending on when Fried was pulled.
O'Day (if before 7th inning) - faces a potential Bellinger PHer and the bottom 3 batters of the lineup.
Martin (if the 7th or later) - faces a potential Bellinger PHer and the bottom 3 batters of the lineup.
Smith - faces 3-6 batters and must face Seager for his 4th PA.
Melancon - faces whoever bats in the 9th.
Minter must be ready to face Bellinger for his 4th PA if Smith can't get that far, and it's not Melancon time yet.
Bottom line is neither Seager nor Bellinger gets to face a RHP in a high leverage spot, and the bottom half must be neutralized for their 3rd PA with a RHP to force LA to burn bench bats.
It is a tactical failure on Snit's part if those simple points aren't followed. This has to happen no matter how well Fried is "cruising", unless he is truly masterful and has a pitch count of ~50 when Betts bats a 3rd time.
