The Braves Roster: Where It Stands Now. Where Does It Go From Here

[cajunrevenge]

Not sure who you're referring to with Melvin.

25 years is worthless if you think the Braves farm is anywhere near bottom 5. That doesn't mean we're close to top 5 either. We have a lot of talent, but most of it just happens to be in the lower levels thanks to the penalties from Coppy-gate.

Melvin is Kyle Wright. I dont have a good grasp of other teams farm system so bottom 5, bottom, 10, whatever, the farm is really really bad is the point. And to be clear, I am talking about prospects that havent hit the majors. If we include Pache and Anderson of course we arent bottom 5. A lot of teams have players who throw ball hard, hit ball far, and run fast at the lower levels. I really dont put a lot of stock in players below A ball unless they are a high draft pick or are a big international signing. Things are a lot more logical with Enscheff dominating the boards these days but I still remember this board getting hyped for every 24 year old dominating tee ball. Spoiler warning, I give my opinion and I dont just regurgitate what the "experts" say. I dont really see the point in that. Dismiss my opinion as uninformed if you want, it just motivates me to keep kicking that dead horse when I am right, like when this board was in an uproar over taking Soroka because MLB.com had him ranked 50th and we took him like 30th. Or the time I was laughed at for saying Scott Thorman couldnt hit. I sure as hell wont shy away if I am wrong. If Melvin turns into Pedro Martinez in his prime and wins 12 Cy Youngs in a row I will be here to take the ridicule.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Melvin is Kyle Wright. I dont have a good grasp of other teams farm system so bottom 5, bottom, 10, whatever, the farm is really really bad is the point. And to be clear, I am talking about prospects that havent hit the majors. If we include Pache and Anderson of course we arent bottom 5. A lot of teams have players who throw ball hard, hit ball far, and run fast at the lower levels. I really dont put a lot of stock in players below A ball unless they are a high draft pick or are a big international signing. Things are a lot more logical with Enscheff dominating the boards these days but I still remember this board getting hyped for every 24 year old dominating tee ball. Spoiler warning, I give my opinion and I dont just regurgitate what the "experts" say. I dont really see the point in that. Dismiss my opinion as uninformed if you want, it just motivates me to keep kicking that dead horse when I am right, like when this board was in an uproar over taking Soroka because MLB.com had him ranked 50th and we took him like 30th. Or the time I was laughed at for saying Scott Thorman couldnt hit. I sure as hell wont shy away if I am wrong. If Melvin turns into Pedro Martinez in his prime and wins 12 Cy Youngs in a row I will be here to take the ridicule.

We are way off topic now but I can't disagree with you more.

If you want to say we are just ok, that is very valid. Bad just isn't true.

Saying we can't include players who have been in the majors is tough because Pache, Anderson, Wright, Wilson and Contreras were in the majors this year. That is a big class.

I still think Contreras should count as a prospect.

Keith Law is one guy, but he's not a sheep on rankings. He had Pache, Anderson, Wright, Wilson, Contreras and Shewmake in his top 100. Waters is in basically everyone else's top 100. Langaliers is still in the system. There are high upside guys in Tarnok, Vodnik and owens who all have great stuff but are short. Micheal Harris and Backstrom are high upside guys in the lower minors. Bryce Ball is a much better prospect with a DH.

We have the double whammy of a bunch of graduations and Coppy penalties putting us down. We are now picking much lower. I have to admit I was not a fan of the last draft.

But I think we are going to be in the 10-15 range my most everyone when the new rankings come out. Rankings that are especially hard b/c nobody saw any of those guys play this year unless the player made it to the majors.

 

[chop2chip]

Based on what AA says, a FF extension seems inevitable for this offseason.

I’m hopeful that is will be in the ballpark of reason. He’s a great player and AA is prudent. I predict it’s going to be below market.

 

[NYCBrave]

Based on what AA says, a FF extension seems inevitable for this offseason.

I’m hopeful that is will be in the ballpark of reason. He’s a great player and AA is prudent. I predict it’s going to be below market.

What do you estimate is reasonable?

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Based on what AA says, a FF extension seems inevitable for this offseason.

I’m hopeful that is will be in the ballpark of reason. He’s a great player and AA is prudent. I predict it’s going to be below market.

At 30 (or 31) Freddie is not the typical player looking for the BIG contract. He already has that in the bank and will now be looking for security more than anything else. At the same time I expect he will have the high dollar Braves contract going forward.

 

[Enscheff]

Based on what AA says, a FF extension seems inevitable for this offseason.

I’m hopeful that is will be in the ballpark of reason. He’s a great player and AA is prudent. I predict it’s going to be below market.

Market rate in terms of AAV is fine.

Locking him up into his late 30s is not fine.

I trust AA understands this.

 

[cajunrevenge]

We are way off topic now but I can't disagree with you more.

If you want to say we are just ok, that is very valid. Bad just isn't true.

Saying we can't include players who have been in the majors is tough because Pache, Anderson, Wright, Wilson and Contreras were in the majors this year. That is a big class.

I still think Contreras should count as a prospect.

Keith Law is one guy, but he's not a sheep on rankings. He had Pache, Anderson, Wright, Wilson, Contreras and Shewmake in his top 100. Waters is in basically everyone else's top 100. Langaliers is still in the system. There are high upside guys in Tarnok, Vodnik and owens who all have great stuff but are short. Micheal Harris and Backstrom are high upside guys in the lower minors. Bryce Ball is a much better prospect with a DH.

We have the double whammy of a bunch of graduations and Coppy penalties putting us down. We are now picking much lower. I have to admit I was not a fan of the last draft.

But I think we are going to be in the 10-15 range my most everyone when the new rankings come out. Rankings that are especially hard b/c nobody saw any of those guys play this year unless the player made it to the majors.

I wasnt including players that hit the majors because I was unclear how prospect status was going to work with the service time from a 60 game season. I kind of forgot Contreras hit the majors this year so I was actually still counting him as a prospect. If anyone wants to fill me in on who still counts as a prospect I would appreciate it. I am sold on Pache, Anderson, and Waters. Cautiously optimistic about Wilson and Shewmake. Meh on Contreras. Never liked Langeliers. Tarnok is trying my patience. Not gonna give up just yet on him. Vodnik is a solid prospect imo. Harris and Backstrom I have hopes for, just need to see more. Not going to take Bryce Ball seriously until he gets to some more age appropriate levels. Yes, I do know that the average age for the levels. Succeeding while being the average age for the level or worse doesn't impress me. I didnt pay any attention to the 2020 draft class so no opinion on them.

 

[Enscheff]

"Prospect status" is a grey area, but it usually approximates rookie status.

 

[chop2chip]

Market rate in terms of AAV is fine.

Locking him up into his late 30s is not fine.

I trust AA understands this.

This is my gut feeling as well.

 

[cajunrevenge]

"Prospect status" is a grey area, but it usually approximates rookie status.

Thats the standard I would go with but I dont know what amounts to exhausting rookie status in a 60 game season.

 

[NYCBrave]

Market rate in terms of AAV is fine.

Locking him up into his late 30s is not fine.

I trust AA understands this.

Fortunately for us, Freddie appears to be one of the most humble, level headed and intelligent players you will find. It appears highly unlikely he will hold out for the biggest contract he can find and sacrifice his happiness in the process. By all indications he loves it where he's at. He's also super close with Chipper, who also worked with the Braves on his own contracts to remain with the team longer term.

The only unknown is if he has any desire to return to the west coast. But he's been in the Braves organization since 2007, so not sure if that's still a desire.

 

[Hulavol]

Can’t see Freddie wanting to uproot his family at this point ....

 

[clvclv]

I wasnt including players that hit the majors because I was unclear how prospect status was going to work with the service time from a 60 game season. I kind of forgot Contreras hit the majors this year so I was actually still counting him as a prospect. If anyone wants to fill me in on who still counts as a prospect I would appreciate it. I am sold on Pache, Anderson, and Waters. Cautiously optimistic about Wilson and Shewmake. Meh on Contreras. Never liked Langeliers. Tarnok is trying my patience. Not gonna give up just yet on him. Vodnik is a solid prospect imo. Harris and Backstrom I have hopes for, just need to see more. Not going to take Bryce Ball seriously until he gets to some more age appropriate levels. Yes, I do know that the average age for the levels. Succeeding while being the average age for the level or worse doesn't impress me. I didnt pay any attention to the 2020 draft class so no opinion on them.

There's that *amn word again. Out of curiosity, just how many times have you "seen" any of those names play? You wouldn't be rating prospects based on boxscores or radar gun readings, would you?

You say you don't put any weight in what the folks paid to watch them say in their reports and rankings, so I assume you travel all the time and see hundreds of minor league games each year, right? Surely you don't base your opinions on YouTube clips and milb.com blurbs.

 

[thewupk]

Thats the standard I would go with but I dont know what amounts to exhausting rookie status in a 60 game season.

Same as any other season. It's based on ABs/Innings and days on the active roster. None of that was prorated like service time was.

So it's 130 ABs, 50 innings, or 45 days on the active roster.

The only difference is days in September actually counted as part of the 45 days on the active roster where in years past they did not.

 

[Carp]

I wasnt including players that hit the majors because I was unclear how prospect status was going to work with the service time from a 60 game season. I kind of forgot Contreras hit the majors this year so I was actually still counting him as a prospect. If anyone wants to fill me in on who still counts as a prospect I would appreciate it. I am sold on Pache, Anderson, and Waters. Cautiously optimistic about Wilson and Shewmake. Meh on Contreras. Never liked Langeliers. Tarnok is trying my patience. Not gonna give up just yet on him. Vodnik is a solid prospect imo. Harris and Backstrom I have hopes for, just need to see more. Not going to take Bryce Ball seriously until he gets to some more age appropriate levels. Yes, I do know that the average age for the levels. Succeeding while being the average age for the level or worse doesn't impress me. I didnt pay any attention to the 2020 draft class so no opinion on them.

Well the a bunch of teams are in the same boat then, as 2020 was a lost year for development and had several players graduate.

The 2019 draft, while not having that immediate "star" prospect that we generally have been accustomed to, it netted us several prospects with high upside including Langeliers, Shewmake, Harris, Grissom, Ball, Owens, Barger, Backstrom. Most of these guys simply haven't had enough of an opportunity yet to establish themselves. Not saying they are will be great players or even great prospects, but this group isn't exactly organizational filler either.

 

[Enscheff]

There's that *amn word again. Out of curiosity, just how many times have you "seen" any of those names play? You wouldn't be rating prospects based on boxscores or radar gun readings, would you?

You say you don't put any weight in what the folks paid to watch them say in their reports and rankings, so I assume you travel all the time and see hundreds of minor league games each year, right? Surely you don't base your opinions on YouTube clips and milb.com blurbs.

This is funny.

I too would like to know what Cajun is basing his opinions on. I’d like to add it to my baseball references.

 

[cajunrevenge]

There's that *amn word again. Out of curiosity, just how many times have you "seen" any of those names play? You wouldn't be rating prospects based on boxscores or radar gun readings, would you?

You say you don't put any weight in what the folks paid to watch them say in their reports and rankings, so I assume you travel all the time and see hundreds of minor league games each year, right? Surely you don't base your opinions on YouTube clips and milb.com blurbs.

I will freely admit to using scouting reports and stat lines to make my judgements. Not gonna deny it. Prospecting/scouting is a pseduo-science with no real right answers. We can only judge by the results. I have my own preferences and very specific things I look for in prospects that I could go into great detail about but will mostly spare you. I have based this on and refined this based on the results I see and its an ever improving formula. I do read just about every "expert" out there and I weight them based on the results I see from them. My personal favorite for many years was John Sickels. Theres so much that goes into my projections about a prospect including the organization they are drafted in. I used to just write off Royals prospects just because their player development system was so bad that it was like the kiss of death to prospects. I have always been very good at pattern recognition and thats basically what I am using in my assessments. For those of you were around in the Scout years, which I know you were, with Bill Shanks who remembers the "mystery pitcher" Shanks used to always hint at. I am the only one who guessed right on that one.

 

[Enscheff]

Please share this formula!!

I'll do the legwork to retroactively apply it to past data, and we can see how accurate it is.

Of course, unless you've already done that type of regression testing.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Well the a bunch of teams are in the same boat then, as 2020 was a lost year for development and had several players graduate.

The 2019 draft, while not having that immediate "star" prospect that we generally have been accustomed to, it netted us several prospects with high upside including Langeliers, Shewmake, Harris, Grissom, Ball, Owens, Barger, Backstrom. Most of these guys simply haven't had enough of an opportunity yet to establish themselves. Not saying they are will be great players or even great prospects, but this group isn't exactly organizational filler either.

My assesment has nothing to do with the lost year. I am pretty sure every team feels like they got a lot of talented players in the 2019 draft. Theres any number of factors on a lot of things that I know most of you dont know much less factor in. For example, in rookie ball and below they force pitchers to mainly work on their fastballs and locating them. Prospects that struggle to make contact facing mostly fastballs is a huge red flag to me. GCL league also has them working out a lot and they play in a pretty hot environment. Many players struggle just based on fatigue. When it comes to hits allowed and defense in the minor leagues I try and factor in that teams dont prioritize defense in the minors. Many players are learning new positions or are playing positions they would never be allowed to in the majors because they are a huge defensive liability. A good example of this I remember is Jose Peraza had a lot of errors at AAA and people questioned his defense because of it. My position was that the person playing 1B, Terdoslavich aka the Terd Buglar, was a piss poor defensive 1B and many of the throws that resulted in error would be made up by Freeman who is very good at receiving throws and scooping at 1B. You can also factor in that the fields of play in the minor leagues are not kept up near as well as they are in the majors and that can create issues as well. I am used to the condescending reaction to my takes. Just makes it sweeter for me when I am right but from my experience even when I am right people will still not admit it because they dont agree with my methods.

 

[clvclv]

My assesment has nothing to do with the lost year. I am pretty sure every team feels like they got a lot of talented players in the 2019 draft. Theres any number of factors on a lot of things that I know most of you dont know much less factor in. For example, in rookie ball and below they force pitchers to mainly work on their fastballs and locating them. Prospects that struggle to make contact facing mostly fastballs is a huge red flag to me. GCL league also has them working out a lot and they play in a pretty hot environment. Many players struggle just based on fatigue. When it comes to hits allowed and defense in the minor leagues I try and factor in that teams dont prioritize defense in the minors. Many players are learning new positions or are playing positions they would never be allowed to in the majors because they are a huge defensive liability. A good example of this I remember is Jose Peraza had a lot of errors at AAA and people questioned his defense because of it. My position was that the person playing 1B, Terdoslavich aka the Terd Buglar, was a piss poor defensive 1B and many of the throws that resulted in error would be made up by Freeman who is very good at receiving throws and scooping at 1B. You can also factor in that the fields of play in the minor leagues are not kept up near as well as they are in the majors and that can create issues as well. I am used to the condescending reaction to my takes. Just makes it sweeter for me when I am right but from my experience even when I am right people will still not admit it because they dont agree with my methods.

You're still avoiding the question. There are plenty of people here who read just as many reports and blurbs you do. Sickels isn't some hidden treasure trove of information - I routinely read everything he put out too (until he lost funding for his site). He differed from the usual suspects at times, but he was wrong at least as often as Law, the guys at BA, and the guys at Pipeline are - and a lot of those times it was because he was trying to be different than them, not because he had legitimate reasons. He constantly admitted that he ranked people higher than other sites at times because he "had a feeling" about this guy or that guy - not because of anything he could measure.

We're all "right" about the occasional prospect when others weren't every once in a while - the difference is you want someone to pat you on the back for that but don't want anyone to mention when your "system" fails.

If matching wits with Bill Shanks is something you feel is worth crowing about, more power to you.