Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Maybe we go back to the Lance Lynn negotiation table. Only has one year so his surplus value is low.

I also wonder if we'd sniff around Lindor. He's an impact bat. Would they move Swanson? Would let one of them play 3B? Lindor only has the one year left. Maybe he'd be willing to negotiate an extension in the off season with the strike looming? Could they get him with a big signing bonus to hold him over in 2022?
 
clvclv said:
Yes. Unless they'll take Ender back too.

AA has already started trying to let fans down softly and trying to explain that we can't bring Ozuna back because of the financial hit the organization took in 2020. Trading the only almost-ready prospect with serious offensive upside for a SP making $38 million over the next 3 years doesn't seem to make much sense when you're already telling people you can't pay Ozuna $50-$60 million over the same period to play every day.

Don't misunderstand - it's not about a Carrasco trade being "bad" (or even Waters for him being a bad value) - it's simply economics. If you weren't going to trade Waters and others for the younger and cheaper Clevinger at the deadline, how can you afford to trade him for the more expensive Carrasco now? Dansby's getting a $5 million raise, Acuna's getting a $4 million raise, Fried's getting a $4 million raise, Duvall's getting a $3.8 million raise, Ozzie's getting a $2 million raise. There goes every bit of your Hamels savings.

How are you going to try to replace the offense you're losing in Ozuna with the money that would be left - particularly with so few bats available?
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Quick answer: Braves were already eating Hamels money. Clevenger would not have rounded out the rotation. Carrasco earns 12M in 2021 and 14/3 in 2022. Face it, nobody is taking Ender.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Could be another super slow FA period with lots of cries of collusion if teams back up payroll a ton.

Really hope it isn't.
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I think you've hit it on the head. I think it's going to be super-slow. Unlike the last collusion go-round, the owners will have at least some justification in holding down salary offers. I see a lot of one- and two-year deals for some of the premium guys with the players hoping they can continue to perform well and look forward to a day when owners won't have the lost revenue excuse.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Quick answer: Braves were already eating Hamels money. Clevenger would not have rounded out the rotation. Carrasco earns 12M in 2021 and 14/3 in 2022. Face it, nobody is taking Ender.
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You missed the entire point.

The same amount of money wasted on Hamels in 2020 will be spent to pay for raises for Dansby, Acuna, Fried, Duvall, and Ozzie in 2021 so Hamels' money doesn't come off of the books - you're just spending it to pay other players you already have.

This means the money "coming off" is what you're paying Ozuna, Melancon, Greene, Markakis, Flowers, Folty, and presumably Jackson and Camargo. If you give $12 million of that to Carrasco (essentially what you paid Markakis, Flowers, and Folty in 2020), you still need to sign a DH replacement for Ozuna, two bullpen arms, a platoon partner for Duvall and Riley (unless you want a black hole in LF and at 3B against RHPs), a utility IF that can play SS, and potentially a backup Catcher - all while significantly reducing payroll.

If you spend $12 million on a SP - while trading away a cheap bat that might be ready to help - the offense (and potentially bullpen) is going to take a serious hit.

BTW - how would Clevinger not have "rounded out the rotation"? If you'd have traded Waters for him in August, you'd have him instead of Carrasco next February, AND owe him less money than you'd have to pay Carrasco.
 
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clvclv said:
You missed the entire point.

The same amount of money wasted on Hamels in 2020 will be spent to pay for raises for Dansby, Acuna, Fried, Duvall, and Ozzie in 2021 so Hamels' money doesn't come off of the books - you're just spending it to pay other players you already have.

This means the money "coming off" is what you're paying Ozuna, Melancon, Greene, Markakis, Flowers, Folty, and presumably Jackson and Camargo. If you give $12 million of that to Carrasco (essentially what you paid Markakis, Flowers, and Folty in 2020), you still need to sign a DH replacement for Ozuna, two bullpen arms, a platoon partner for Duvall and Riley (unless you want a black hole in LF and at 3B against RHPs), a utility IF that can play SS, and potentially a backup Catcher - all while significantly reducing payroll.

If you spend $12 million on a SP - while trading away a cheap bat that might be ready to help - the offense (and potentially bullpen) is going to take a serious hit.

BTW - how would Clevinger not have "rounded out the rotation"? If you'd have traded Waters for him in August, you'd have him instead of Carrasco next February, AND owe him less money than you'd have to pay Carrasco.
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I think you might have missed the point. By the time Clevenger was available (along with the bad press for he and Plesac) Soroka had gone down, Hamels was on 60 day DL, Folty and Newk crapped the bed. Rotation at the time was Fried, Anderson (big surprise BTW) and Wright (had shown nothing yet) and Tomlin. Just what did anyone other than die hard fans really expect of the season at that point? Virtually everyone on this forum acknowledges that the rotation needs and anchor next year BTW.
DH, while everyone feels that it will become permanent it still is not definite. I suggest you look at this years stats for Riley and Duvall. Except for HRs they are virtually the same. Only big difference is age and salary. Are you betting that Duvall will be kept?
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
I think you might have missed the point. By the time Clevenger was available (along with the bad press for he and Plesac) Soroka had gone down, Hamels was on 60 day DL, Folty and Newk crapped the bed. Rotation at the time was Fried, Anderson (big surprise BTW) and Wright (had shown nothing yet) and Tomlin. Just what did anyone other than die hard fans really expect of the season at that point? Virtually everyone on this forum acknowledges that the rotation needs and anchor next year BTW.
DH, while everyone feels that it will become permanent it still is not definite. I suggest you look at this years stats for Riley and Duvall. Except for HRs they are virtually the same. Only big difference is age and salary. Are you betting that Duvall will be kept?
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There's little doubt in most people's minds that he will be - even if they don't resign him they won't have enough money to pay Ozuna. 25 HRs from Duvall for $7 million or 35 HRs from Ozuna for $20 million? Pretty simple math, even without a calculator.

I completely understand you're trying to make a point about production - unfortunately it's irrelevant. The reality is that AA is probably going to have $30+ million less to work with in 2021 than he did this year, and he's going to have to replace a LOT of production with far less money. Giving $12 million of that to Carlos Carrasco isn't going to replace any of that production - Soroka's likely going to be back relatively early on and you'll have Anderson right out of the gate. This team was one start short of making it to the World Series even with all the starts you didn't get from Soroka and Anderson.

Take Ozuna away from the offense and add Carrasco to the rotation and you probably don't get as far as this team did - this is what you're proposing.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Cleveland plain dealer article saying Carlos Carrasco is likely trade candidate for young OFers. Any interest? Waters too much to give up?
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The thing about Carrasco is he's going to be 34 to start the season next year. Looks like he's got 2 more years guaranteed, plus a team option for 2023. Personally I'd have to see how his stuff has been trending. Contract is pretty reasonable all things considered though.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Maybe we go back to the Lance Lynn negotiation table. Only has one year so his surplus value is low.

I also wonder if we'd sniff around Lindor. He's an impact bat. Would they move Swanson? Would let one of them play 3B? Lindor only has the one year left. Maybe he'd be willing to negotiate an extension in the off season with the strike looming? Could they get him with a big signing bonus to hold him over in 2022?
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Trading for a player and then immediately signing them to an extension is a pipe dream. It always gets brought up, but never happens in real life. Someone like Lindor is going to wait out for the highest bidder in free agency, which won't be the Braves.
 
clvclv said:
There's little doubt in most people's minds that he will be - even if they don't resign him they won't have enough money to pay Ozuna. 25 HRs from Duvall for $7 million or 35 HRs from Ozuna for $20 million? Pretty simple math, even without a calculator.

I completely understand you're trying to make a point about production - unfortunately it's irrelevant. The reality is that AA is probably going to have $30+ million less to work with in 2021 than he did this year, and he's going to have to replace a LOT of production with far less money. Giving $12 million of that to Carlos Carrasco isn't going to replace any of that production - Soroka's likely going to be back relatively early on and you'll have Anderson right out of the gate. This team was one start short of making it to the World Series even with all the starts you didn't get from Soroka and Anderson.

Take Ozuna away from the offense and add Carrasco to the rotation and you probably don't get as far as this team did - this is what you're proposing.
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Are you now saying that Duvall will be the DH next year? What I would look at first is the fact that I can get almost as much production from Riley for $600K as I can from Duvall for $7M. But the bottom line is we need rotation anchor, LH OFer and DH somehow if the DH becomes permanent.
 
I have to admit I haven’t looked forward to another Braves game as much as I do right now. This offseason is going to be very painful. Hopefully, AA can keep us entertained.
 
NYCBrave said:
Trading for a player and then immediately signing them to an extension is a pipe dream. It always gets brought up, but never happens in real life. Someone like Lindor is going to wait out for the highest bidder in free agency, which won't be the Braves.
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See Betts, Mookie. It's a different deal now with COVID and the Strike. That money may not be there until the labor situation is fixex.
 
i'm not high on Waters and giving him up for Carrasco would be way too much. going to be 34 years old. i'm not even close to giving that up, even with Ender going the other way.
 
Super said:
i'm not high on Waters and giving him up for Carrasco would be way too much. going to be 34 years old. i'm not even close to giving that up, even with Ender going the other way.
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I can buy that. Knowing that we have limited trade chips other than unproven pitchers, what/who would you trade and for what in return. I used Waters because the Plain Dealer writer stated that Indians would be looking for young OFers.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
I can buy that. Knowing that we have limited trade chips other than unproven pitchers, what/who would you trade and for what in return. I used Waters because the Plain Dealer writer stated that Indians would be looking for young OFers.
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yeah, we probably don't match up too well with them unless we're talking about a younger pitcher. i might do it for Plesac or Civale.
i don't think the Indians will get like, a top-ish prospect for Carrasco either. he's just too old.
 
i would also love to deal Waters for Tristen McKenzie, but i doubt they're open to dealing him. maybe tho.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Are you now saying that Duvall will be the DH next year? What I would look at first is the fact that I can get almost as much production from Riley for $600K as I can from Duvall for $7M. But the bottom line is we need rotation anchor, LH OFer and DH somehow if the DH becomes permanent.
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He'll likely be a factor there, yes.

As chop2chip mentioned, this is going to be a pretty painful offseason - and not just because we were so close and want to get back out there. Money is going to be that much tighter than it used to be - even with the team-friendly Acuna and Albies deals.

It's all just speculation at this point, but I'm relatively confident that those that are expecting AA to be in a position to make that one significant "push you over the top" move are going to be terribly disappointed. The Braves' organization arguably took a bigger hit than others this year because of all the damage the virus did to revenues from The Battery. He also already mentioned the uncertainty about whether or not fans will be in the stands at the beginning of 2021. This will compound financial problems even more since having an empty stadium will likely mean that Battery revenues will take another huge hit. It's not only going to affect the Braves, but payrolls are likely going down substantially league-wide. Teams were already getting smarter by leaps and bounds BEFORE the pandemic - with the virus causing such a huge reduction in revenues everywhere, teams that were open to splurging even a little aren't likely going to be in a position to for a while. Everybody's going to be trimming as much fat as absolutely possible, and only the truly elite players are going to get paid what has been considered "market value" in the past.

Given the fact that front offices were already moving away from trading prospects for players in their mid-30s, there's probably even less chance that we see Top 100 talents moved for older Pitchers in this economic environment, particularly the ones that are really close to being able to help their MLB team - even if they're not expected to turn into "stars". The Braves already have two "rotation" anchors in Fried and Soroka, Anderson is more than solid, and Wright and Wilson gave AA more than a few reasons to feel like he doesn't need to spend money on the rotation this winter - beyond maybe bringing a veteran MOR-type in to compete with them and as insurance against Soroka not being ready right away or other injuries (somebody like a Minor/Paxton/Archer/Taijuan Walker/Lester/Hamels ought to cost significantly less than $12 million on a one year deal, AND won't cost you Waters).
 
Just too many unknowns coming down the pipe to know how the offseason will look one way or the other. Sorry, i just see a lot of question marks....
 
Russ2dollas said:
See Betts, Mookie. It's a different deal now with COVID and the Strike. That money may not be there until the labor situation is fixex.
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The Dodgers also carry the most expensive payroll in baseball, and would have been able to outbid everyone anyway. The contract they gave him would have only been affordable by a handful of other teams, since it was at or above market value. So any other team who would have traded for him would not have had the same opportunity.
 
Russ2dollas said:
See Betts, Mookie. It's a different deal now with COVID and the Strike. That money may not be there until the labor situation is fixex.
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Rigghhhhttt.... so getting traded to the richest team in baseball and them offering a lifetime absolute max value contract happens every year?
 
Tapate50 said:
Rigghhhhttt.... so getting traded to the richest team in baseball and them offering a lifetime absolute max value contract happens every year?
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Didn't say that. The response from me was in response to him saying "never happens in real life." It did happen. Last year.

I didn't say it was likely. I didn't say it would work with any team. But it is possible.

Mookie is still going to FA if we don't have COVID and the work stoppage looming. I believe that. No reason not to.

This is going to be a very unique year.
 
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