Second-Tier Position Prospects

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
The trio of Heyward, Freeman and Simmons spoiled us. They rocketed through the farm system and had success in the majors at young ages.

No position prospect in our system is in the same class as those three. We do have a couple, Peraza and Bethancourt, who are young for their levels and project as major league regulars. But what I find really interesting about the current group of position prospects is that we have a large number who currently project as major league bench players/fringe regulars. Some are young and very far from the majors. Others were drafted as college players and have had success while playing in leagues they are a bit old for.

This group of players includes: Terdoslavich, La Stella, Cunningham, Salcedo, Kubitza, Elmer Reyes, Victor Reyes, Wren, Elander, Caratini, Lipka, Camargo, Pastornicky.

We have to be realistic about the likely outcomes for prospects of this type. Of these thirteen, half will probably not make the majors or just play briefly. Five or six will have solid careers as bench players/fringe starters. But out of thirteen the odds favor one being the Martin Prado of his generation. Prado was not highly touted coming up and went on to be a valuable starting player. Another former Braves prospect who comes to mind is Gregor Blanco. He is the same age as Francoeur and for a while had a similar path through the minors. Then Francouer got jumped from AA to the majors and had a strong rookie season. Anyone care to guess which of Blanco and Francoeur has the higher career WAR numbers?

Looking at the thirteen I listed, it is very difficult to pick one and say that one will be the Prado of this group and to pick another and say this one will have a career similar to Blanco. But that's the discussion I'm interested in starting. To me second-tier prospects are in some ways more interesting than those who have already been touted as future All-Stars. The qualities that separate the ones who go on to be successful are more difficult to spot. So have at it.
 
La Stella has the best chance to succeed. Not saying he's a lock of course, but if you told me there was a second baseman with a career .900 OPS in the minors, fresh off a near .900 OPS season in AA and never had to repeat a level, what would your gut reaction be? The only reason Tommy isn't higher on the prospect lists is he's not a sick defender and he's old for a blue chip prospect. But Tommy has hit at every level with no set backs and plays a defensive first position.
 
1. La Stella
2. Terdoslavich
3. Caratini
4. Victor Reyes

I have very little hope for any of the rest.
 
Marcus Semien had an OPS of over .900 in AA. He is younger than La Stella. Also bigger, faster, more athletic. Not saying that I don't like La Stella, but what he did last year is not that unusual.
 
My two would be Wren and Caratini.

A lot of players have very good speed but it doesn't translate into their games. Wren exploits his to very good effect. He's a very good defensive center fielder and excellent base runner. It remains to be seen if the bat continues to be productive as he moves up to more age-appropriate competition, but I think he has a chance to be a Brett Butler type player.

As for Caratini, he has the best hitting potential in our minor league system. I always give switch hitters bonus points. Plus his walk and strikeout numbers are good. He hit a lot of doubles last year, which I think will translate into home run power as he matures. I don't know if he can make it as a catcher, but the bat is likely to be good enough for a corner infield spot.
 
nsacpi said:
Marcus Semien had an OPS of over .900 in AA. He is younger than La Stella. Also bigger, faster, more athletic. Not saying that I don't like La Stella, but what he did last year is not that unusual.
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Semien had a one year surge in numbers. He went from a guy who didn't walk too much and then cut down on his Ks while increasing his BB. And given that he went to AAA and his K and BB returned to more normal levels. His .900 OPS was more of an outlier than Tommy's.

I think the fact that Tommy continued raking in AFL while Semien didn't shows that Tommy's pure hitter skill set is of a different regard.

Tommy is gonna hit.
 
zitothebrave said:
Semien had a one year surge in numbers. He went from a guy who didn't walk too much and then cut down on his Ks while increasing his BB. And given that he went to AAA and his K and BB returned to more normal levels. His .900 OPS was more of an outlier than Tommy's.

I think the fact that Tommy continued raking in AFL while Semien didn't shows that Tommy's pure hitter skill set is of a different regard.

Tommy is gonna hit.
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There are sample size issues with all these players. For the record, Semien had 393 ABs in AA, 125 in AAA, 69 in the majors and 77 in the AFL.

La Stella had 283 ABs in AA and 62 in the AFL.

I expect La Stella to be a better hitter than Semien. But Semien to be the more valuable player once defense and baserunning are taken into account.
 
But we were strictly talking about the offensive side. Defense and Baserunning for a prospect that's not in our system, who cares?
 
zitothebrave said:
But we were strictly talking about the offensive side. Defense and Baserunning for a prospect that's not in our system, who cares?
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I put position prospects in the title, by which I meant the whole package. It is the reason I rate Wren relatively high. He brings a lot to the table in terms of defense and baserunning.
 
You can't steal first. Many great defensive players never make or stick around in the majors if they don't hit.

Look at Ryan Langerhans, he was a great defender, but he couldn't hit enough to stay in the majors.

Conversely Pat Burrell is an atrocious defensive player, but he stuck around baseball for years.
 
Victor Reyes is one to watch. What this kid did at 18 y.o. is nothing to sneeze at. Although he didn't show much power his 6'3" frame has plenty of room to grow and add power but his hand/eye coordination for an 18 y.o. was superb! I'll be able to see him on a regular basis this season in Rome.
 
LaStella is probably the most likely to contribute, largely because other than Terdoslavich and Cunningham (who have both been in the bigs), he's the closest to the major leagues. Outside of LaStella, I don't think there's a lot on the list with the exception of Victor Reyes, Victor Caratini, and Johan Camargo. Each of the other guys seems to have a plus skill, but aren't very well rounded. Think Kubitza's ability to walk and Elmer Reyes' glove as the shining examples of this type. They could surprise, but they (like the others), look to be fairly one-dimensional. Doesn't mean they won't contribute or have some value, but they are probably 23rd, 24th, 25th man types.

I think Terdoslavich is going to be a guy without a position. If he shows he can play the OF at all, there may be a place for him.
 
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