Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

clvclv said:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/twins-rumors-nelson-cruz-two-year-deal.html

If it's going to take 3 or more years at $20 million to bring Ozuna back - and the DH is here to stay - not sure why Cruz wouldn't be an option if he's looking for 2 years at similar money to what he's been making and the Twins blink. They have Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach ready to step in and help them cut costs if they choose to use Cruz' and Rosario's money to chase pitching.
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If the NL will have a DH in 2020, then Cruz on a 1 year deal is probably better than Ozuna for 3. I honestly didn’t know Cruz was still so effective.

If the NL won’t have a DH in 2020, then living with Ozuna in LF for 1 season before moving him to DH after the new CBA comes out might be the best move.

If Springer is affordable he is preferable to both, but I’m guessing he will cost a ton. He might be one of those guys who ask for too much and end up having to take a 1 year deal late, so here’s hoping that happens.

The SP will pretty obviously be another Hamels-like 1 year contract...with hopefully better results. Folks here have already mentioned many good options, but Stroman seems most likely to me, just like Hamels seemed likely last year.

And who knows what types of cash dump trades will be available. Will be very interesting, but I expect AA to continue limiting risk.
 
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Sign Brantley to play LF. If DH comes in for 2021, move him to DH and bring up Waters. Hopefully you can get rid of Ender somehow.
 
Enscheff said:
If the NL will have a DH in 2020, then Cruz on a 1 year deal is probably better than Ozuna for 3. I honestly didn’t know Cruz was still so effective.

If the NL won’t have a DH in 2020, then living with Ozuna in LF for 1 season before moving him to DH after the new CBA comes out might be the best move.

If Springer is affordable he is preferable to both, but I’m guessing he will cost a ton. He might be one of those guys who ask for too much and end up having to take a 1 year deal late, so here’s hoping that happens.

The SP will pretty obviously be another Hamels-like 1 year contract...with hopefully better results. Folks here have already mentioned many good options, but Stroman seems most likely to me, just like Hamels seemed likely last year.

And who knows what types of cash dump trades will be available. Will be very interesting, but I expect AA to continue limiting risk.
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Was the way I was looking at it. If there's as active a market for Ozuna as I'm afraid there's going to be, I'm afraid he's getting 4 years - or at least an option for a 4th to separate the bidders (kinda like the way it went for Donaldson).

If he's looking at a 4th year and the Twins blink, I would certainly be interested in pivoting to Cruz if I were in AA's shoes. Then there's a chance you could get both he and Pederson on one year deals for the same price you'd have to pay for Ozuna. If you could get the two of them for ~ $20 million, payroll would be ~ $120.5 million even if you can't unload a dime of Ender's money. Hold onto him to game Pache's clock early, then DFA him.

Since Lester's already going to get $10 million from the Cubs, maybe you can get him for the King Felix $1 million "go out on top" deal to add another lefty to the rotation. Maybe Hamels feels guilty and takes something like that. If not, take a look at Wood on a split deal.

Sign whatever backup SS you can get for $1 million, and you'd still be able to add someone like Shaw (or Holt or Moran if their options aren't picked up) and still come in at around $125 million.
 
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I think it will be just a matter of hours after the WS is completed til Manford announces the fate of the DH for 2021. Going forward, my targets, dependent on money of course, would be Bryant, Brantley and Chris Archer in that order. Archer should be dirt cheap but then we dont need anyone except for the 4 or 5 slot. Bryant we know the dollars just not what Cubs want but it shouldnt be back breaking. Bryant can play LF, 3rd and DH. Brantley can play OF and DH. Talk about a potential platoon and would strengthen the bottom of lineup at worse.
 
I’m hoping the DH is announced so the Braves can get someone like Ozuna or Cruz to bat behind Freeman, a LHH OFer to pair with Duvall, and then let Riley sink or swim until the trade deadline. Pache probably stays at AAA for a month or more before taking over CF permanently, but perhaps is deemed ready opening day.

Then I expect AA to hand a 1 year contract, maybe with an option, to someone like Stroman. I’d stay away from Paxton since is pretty clearly on the TJ surgery path with a flexor strain. There are probably quite a few options for a 1 year guy to stabilize the middle of the rotation, so no need to spend prospect capital trading for one.
 
Enscheff said:
I’m hoping the DH is announced so the Braves can get someone like Ozuna or Cruz to bat behind Freeman, a LHH OFer to pair with Duvall, and then let Riley sink or swim until the trade deadline. Pache probably stays at AAA for a month or more before taking over CF permanently, but perhaps is deemed ready opening day.

Then I expect AA to hand a 1 year contract, maybe with an option, to someone like Stroman. I’d stay away from Paxton since is pretty clearly on the TJ surgery path with a flexor strain. There are probably quite a few options for a 1 year guy to stabilize the middle of the rotation, so no need to spend prospect capital trading for one.
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This is where the whole offseason gets decided IMO.

For argument's sake, let's say the DH is here for good. Let's also assume the Twins move on from Cruz since they have replacements available and are probably better off spending that money on pitching.

Given the preference is to avoid long-term deals - particularly for someone you prefer only hits - wouldn't giving Cruz a second year (or at least an attainable option) be more attractive than guaranteeing 3 or more years to Ozuna? You can make the argument that Ozuna was great in the clubhouse (which he was), but so was Donaldson - and Cruz has long been lauded as one of the better clubhouse presences in the league too. Amazingly, Cruz has shown no signs of slowing down yet, so if you can somehow get one more year of similar production out of him you'd arguably be better off than having tp pay Ozuna for 3 years beyond 2021 in case he falls off a cliff. I realize he's not shown anyone much of a reason to be concerned about that, but wouldn't you prefer to have the flexibility to turn Freeman into a DH in 2023 in the event he's given an extension? 2021 ZiPS projections have Ozuna with a .357 wOBA and Cruz at .349.

You have to expect Cruz to slow down at some point, but if he and Ozuna will be that close in 2021 and signing him rather than Ozuna leaves you money to chase Pederson to pair with Duvall isn't it worth it?
 
If the choice is between Cruz for 2 years vs Ozuna for 3 years, I think the answer is pretty obviously Ozuna. Cruz is only an option if he requires a single year.
 
Enscheff said:
If the choice is between Cruz for 2 years vs Ozuna for 3 years, I think the answer is pretty obviously Ozuna. Cruz is only an option if he requires a single year.
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Cruz is uber popular up here in the frozen tundra and I venture the Twins will fork over some bucks for him. Viewed as a real plus in the clubhouse.
 
Enscheff said:
I’m hoping the DH is announced so the Braves can get someone like Ozuna or Cruz to bat behind Freeman, a LHH OFer to pair with Duvall, and then let Riley sink or swim until the trade deadline. Pache probably stays at AAA for a month or more before taking over CF permanently, but perhaps is deemed ready opening day.

Then I expect AA to hand a 1 year contract, maybe with an option, to someone like Stroman. I’d stay away from Paxton since is pretty clearly on the TJ surgery path with a flexor strain. There are probably quite a few options for a 1 year guy to stabilize the middle of the rotation, so no need to spend prospect capital trading for one.
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Very sensible plan. I do wonder about how long of a leash Riley will have. If Camargo is not non-tendered, would they give him the job back should Riley struggle the first two months?

I still think we will be outbid on both Cruz and Ozuna. But this is an offseason unlike any other, due to Covid, and teams may not be spending. We will have to see.
 
NYCBrave said:
Very sensible plan. I do wonder about how long of a leash Riley will have. If Camargo is not non-tendered, would they give him the job back should Riley struggle the first two months?

I still think we will be outbid on both Cruz and Ozuna. But this is an offseason unlike any other, due to Covid, and teams may not be spending. We will have to see.
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If money is tight then I think Riley showed enough Legit improvement to earn another few hundred PAs. If he can improve his plate discipline and contact skills as much next year as he did this year he will be pretty valuable.

If there is no DH, and the Braves can only add a bat at 3b, then I think Riley is done.
 
Enscheff said:
I’m hoping the DH is announced so the Braves can get someone like Ozuna or Cruz to bat behind Freeman, a LHH OFer to pair with Duvall, and then let Riley sink or swim until the trade deadline. Pache probably stays at AAA for a month or more before taking over CF permanently, but perhaps is deemed ready opening day.

Then I expect AA to hand a 1 year contract, maybe with an option, to someone like Stroman. I’d stay away from Paxton since is pretty clearly on the TJ surgery path with a flexor strain. There are probably quite a few options for a 1 year guy to stabilize the middle of the rotation, so no need to spend prospect capital trading for one.
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They may have a hard time keeping Pache down after he showed that, at the very least, he wasn't completely overmatched in the postseason. Given the state of negotiations with the CBA it wouldn't shock me to see him as the opening day CF.
 
salmagundy said:
What would the Braves have to give up when the Astros offer a QO to Brantley?? Is he worth 19 mil for 1 yr?
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Brantley would probably be second fiddle for a QO considering his age et al. I think it was MLBTrade Rumors or possibly the Houston newspaper that said he should expect somewhere around 2/25-30.
 
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