Braves 2021 Payroll

[Enscheff]

Using the method 3 arb numbers from MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2021.html

And filling in with mostly internal options:

Pos Player 2021 Salary
1 C d'Arnaud $8.00
2 1B Freeman $22.00
3 2B Albies $3.00
4 3B Riley $0.60
5 SS Swanson $3.30
6 LF Acuna $5.00
7 CF Pache $0.60
8 RF Duvall $4.70

9 SP1 Soroka $0.60
10 SP2 Fried $2.40
11 SP3 Anderson $0.60
12 SP4 SP $0.00
13 SP5 Wright $0.60

14 BN1 IF $0.00
15 BN2 Camargo $2.00
16 BN3 OF $0.00
17 BN4 Inciarte $8.70
18 BN5 Contreras $0.60

19 BP1 Jackson $2.00
20 BP2 Minter $1.10
21 BP3 Dayton $0.80
22 BP4 Martin $7.00
23 BP5 Smith $13.00
24 BP6 O'Day $3.50
25 BP7 Matzek $0.60
26 BP8 Webb $0.60

Total $91.3M

Assuming a payroll decrease to around $120M, that's about $30M to fill 4 holes on the roster: a SP, a RHH big bat at either OF, 3B or DH, another bench spot on the IF, and maybe a BP arm.

Folks love to postulate about somehow dumping Ender, but reality is that the overall payroll won't change much since the player coming back will also be making significant money. O'Day is also a popular cut to save cash, but a net gain of $3M isn't going to change the calculus much. Any way you slice it, there's something like $30M for those spots, with SP and RHH impact bat the top priorities.

Someone like Hech fills the IF bench spot for roughly $1M. Pencil him in.

The BP seems in pretty good shape as is, so even if O'Day is replaced by someone else, I don't expect much additional money spent there.

I don't know how they plan on replacing Ozuna and adding a 2-3 win SP for $30M, so hopefully the payroll is closer to $130M.

 

[50PoundHead]

I know letting Jackson and O'Day go doesn't give the team a pile of cash, but if they are are looking to save every possible nickel I have to believe those guys may be gone. Toss Camargo into the equation and they would be looking at somewhere between 6MM and 7MM in savings that could go toward more pressing needs.

There is going to be a lot of guesswork going on early in the off-season. There could be a flood of non-tenders which would drive down the cost on those players. I imagine the issue is going to be trying to figure out which teams are going to blink first in that regard.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Foolish question. Ive seen somewhere that season may wind up being 100 games. So if Braves go to $150M less something like 50# writes and pro-rated winds up at $100M, will the Battery and other concessions in 50 home games offset potential losses such as 2020?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Is Folty gone in everyone’s eyes next year? He could still be another option on the SP front. Maybe he is done though. Maybe the Rays pick him up and make him a 6 win pitcher.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Is Folty gone in everyone’s eyes next year? He could still be another option on the SP front. Maybe he is done though. Maybe the Rays pick him up and make him a 6 win pitcher.

He is not on the 40 man. Without looking I think he has one more year of arb and I doubt Braves would want to gamble what it would take to keep him. IOW, look for non tender.

 

[Hudson2]

I think they bring back one of Greene or MM.

 

[NYCBrave]

He is not on the 40 man. Without looking I think he has one more year of arb and I doubt Braves would want to gamble what it would take to keep him. IOW, look for non tender.

I was reading since he's a minor league free agent, he's not eligible for arb this year. So yea, we can offer him a contract, but he really feels like a pick up a team like the Orioles will throw a bone to and try to get value out of him and flip.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I was reading since he's a minor league free agent, he's not eligible for arb this year. So yea, we can offer him a contract, but he really feels like a pick up a team like the Orioles will throw a bone to and try to get value out of him and flip.

Not sure how all this works but he does not have any options left according to SPOTRAC. So if you sign him is there a minimum you can offer and what if he needs more time in the minors do you have to DFA him?

 

[clvclv]

Using the method 3 arb numbers from MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2021.html

And filling in with mostly internal options:

Pos Player 2021 Salary
1 C d'Arnaud $8.00
2 1B Freeman $22.00
3 2B Albies $3.00
4 3B Riley $0.60
5 SS Swanson $3.30
6 LF Acuna $5.00
7 CF Pache $0.60
8 RF Duvall $4.70

9 SP1 Soroka $0.60
10 SP2 Fried $2.40
11 SP3 Anderson $0.60
12 SP4 SP $0.00
13 SP5 Wright $0.60

14 BN1 IF $0.00
15 BN2 Camargo $2.00
16 BN3 OF $0.00
17 BN4 Inciarte $8.70
18 BN5 Contreras $0.60

19 BP1 Jackson $2.00
20 BP2 Minter $1.10
21 BP3 Dayton $0.80
22 BP4 Martin $7.00
23 BP5 Smith $13.00
24 BP6 O'Day $3.50
25 BP7 Matzek $0.60
26 BP8 Webb $0.60

Total $91.3M

Assuming a payroll decrease to around $120M, that's about $30M to fill 4 holes on the roster: a SP, a RHH big bat at either OF, 3B or DH, another bench spot on the IF, and maybe a BP arm.

Folks love to postulate about somehow dumping Ender, but reality is that the overall payroll won't change much since the player coming back will also be making significant money. O'Day is also a popular cut to save cash, but a net gain of $3M isn't going to change the calculus much. Any way you slice it, there's something like $30M for those spots, with SP and RHH impact bat the top priorities.

Someone like Hech fills the IF bench spot for roughly $1M. Pencil him in.

The BP seems in pretty good shape as is, so even if O'Day is replaced by someone else, I don't expect much additional money spent there.

I don't know how they plan on replacing Ozuna and adding a 2-3 win SP for $30M, so hopefully the payroll is closer to $130M.

Assuming there's no DH...

1.) Hechavarria/Mercer - 1 year/$1 million.
2.) Whichever of Lester, Smyly, Quintana, Minor, Hamels, Wood comes cheapest - 1 year/$5 million (or less).
3.) Whichever of Pederson, Reddick, Gardner comes cheapest - 1 year/$8 million.
4.) Let Camargo walk, trade A-Jax to Pittsburgh for Moran - saves $100K.

$13.9 million ($105.2 million total based on your calculations). - leaves you some cushion in case you need to stretch a little for Pederson and/or whichever SP you prefer, or in case AA decides to bring Melancon or Greene back (or another RH late-inning option in on a 1 year deal) - otherwise hold the rest until the deadline. In the event the DH is implemented and payroll is in the $130 million range, you'd still have ~ $20 million per to throw at Ozuna.

 

[50PoundHead]

I was reading since he's a minor league free agent, he's not eligible for arb this year. So yea, we can offer him a contract, but he really feels like a pick up a team like the Orioles will throw a bone to and try to get value out of him and flip.

I don't know that that's the case because I'm not up on all the rules, but that would seem to make sense.

 

[50PoundHead]

Assuming there's no DH...

1.) Hechavarria/Mercer - 1 year/$1 million.
2.) Whichever of Lester, Smyly, Quintana, Minor, Hamels, Wood comes cheapest - 1 year/$5 million (or less).
3.) Whichever of Pederson, Reddick, Gardner comes cheapest - 1 year/$8 million.
4.) Let Camargo walk, trade A-Jax to Pittsburgh for Moran - saves $100K.

$13.9 million ($105.2 million total based on your calculations). - leaves you some cushion in case you need to stretch a little for Pederson and/or whichever SP you prefer, or in case AA decides to bring Melancon or Greene back (or another RH late-inning option in on a 1 year deal) - otherwise hold the rest until the deadline. In the event the DH is implemented and payroll is in the $130 million range, you'd still have ~ $20 million per to throw at Ozuna.

After watching him kick it all over the place during his stint at 3B and his worse than Camargo (that's my new term for a spot on the lower end of the futility scale) performance at the plate, I don't know if he should be brought back unless he offers to pay the Braves for the spot on the roster.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I dont know how this does or does not apply to the Braves but was reading somewhere earlier that MLB is claiming a $3B loss and the Cubs among many other teams including the Braves have fired/furloughed/eliminated many staff jobs. Going back to Cubs, thterminated 100 jobs. Gives credence to all the rumors about Bryant, Schwarber and others. Back to Braves, if they lost their share of the $3B and eliminated dozens of jobs and considering shape of prospects list I doubt there will be much signing of FAs by AA.

 

[clvclv]

After watching him kick it all over the place during his stint at 3B and his worse than Camargo (that's my new term for a spot on the lower end of the futility scale) performance at the plate, I don't know if he should be brought back unless he offers to pay the Braves for the spot on the roster.

Any defensive specialist that can backup SS - whoever's signed for that role would rarely see the field anyway, and certainly not at 3B since Riley and Moran would be platooning there in the scenario I laid out. Pretty sure they've decided Camargo can't be that guy defensively - they likely wouldn't have brought Hech back in 2020 if they thought Johan would've been OK at SS. Was really surprised to see him (Adeiny) spend any time at 3B in the first place personally. Filed it under Snitker trying to show off his "versatility" on his own in my mind - kinda like when he played Riley in RF twice in 2019.

 

[50PoundHead]

Any defensive specialist that can backup SS - whoever's signed for that role would rarely see the field anyway, and certainly not at 3B since Riley and Moran would be platooning there in the scenario I laid out. Pretty sure they've decided Camargo can't be that guy defensively - they likely wouldn't have brought Hech back in 2020 if they thought Johan would've been OK at SS. Was really surprised to see him (Adeiny) spend any time at 3B in the first place personally. Filed it under Snitker trying to show off his "versatility" on his own in my mind - kinda like when he played Riley in RF twice in 2019.

I'd almost--stress on almost--rather have Pete Kozma. Hechavarria showed me nothing. If Swanson were to go down for an extended period, my guess is Shewmake would be rushed up (or Albies would move over). If all they need is a guy to stand at the position until Shewmake could get an Uber to take him from Coolray to Truist, it wouldn't necessarily need to be a SS-first guy. I agree that Camargo simply outgrew the position. He was never going to be a great defensive SS, but he hit the weight room and simply beefed up too much. There will likely be a lot of options available this winter.

 

[clvclv]

I'd almost--stress on almost--rather have Pete Kozma. Hechavarria showed me nothing. If Swanson were to go down for an extended period, my guess is Shewmake would be rushed up (or Albies would move over). If all they need is a guy to stand at the position until Shewmake could get an Uber to take him from Coolray to Truist, it wouldn't necessarily need to be a SS-first guy. I agree that Camargo simply outgrew the position. He was never going to be a great defensive SS, but he hit the weight room and simply beefed up too much. There will likely be a lot of options available this winter.

Yeah, that's why I mentioned Jordy Mercer. Kozma, Chris Owings, Andrew Romine, Eduardo Nunez, and Ehire Adrianza could be out there as well, and that's BEFORE any unexpected non-tenders - plus Riley Delgado's due to be added to the 40-Man Roster if they don't want to expose him to the Rule V draft. Delgado had the third-most hits of Braves' minor leaguers in 2019, and Kazmar and Riley Unroe are other minor leaguers who might be OK for the role on a short-term basis.

As you mention, we're only talking about a place-holder that won't be a butcher for a handful of games - if Dansby misses significant time, AA would probably have to get creative at that point.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Looking at that, we have a really well maintained Roster. Ender is the only bad money (smith has a chance to be, but I think he will do well) on the sheet.

120 Million seems like a fair assessment. Some room to move to add at the deadline or if revenues are up.

When we get back from the strike, Ronnie starts to make real money. It's going to be interesting to see if liberty will ok 150-175 million payrolls for the rest of decade.

I think AA will do what he has done before, go out and get a big move done early and then sit around all offseason and wait for opportunities to fall into his lap. This could be an awful offseason of players getting no decent offers.

I'd want us to add two impact bats to compete for a WS. One DH (if it's there) and one at LF. I think we need an impact starter and a vet to compete with Wright. No way we are doing all of that for 30 million.

There will be some very interesting trades and non-tenders out there.

The braves also have a number of AAAA starters that a team might like to stealth tank/wait out COVID and labor dispute with upside.

Going back to Lance Lynn seems very reasonable. Getting an impact starter just under 10 million a year really helps you stretch this budget.

 

[NYCBrave]

The Braves just e-mailed out a thank you to fans, basically an end of season recap. They normally do it every year. But with so much uncertainty going into this off season, there are a few lines in there that to me read like we should not expect a miserable off season. Sure, it could mean nothing. But I read it optimistically that we're not going to slash payroll.

"The team defied prognosticators again and again as we won the division, defeated the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card Series and defeated our NL East rivals the Miami Marlins in the Division Series. And while we were one-win shy of a World Series berth, the world witnessed that the Braves are a team to be reckoned with and are poised to have a long and successful run with our young roster."

We can’t wait for 2021 to celebrate our organization's 150th Anniversary and to have the world’s eyes on Truist Park for All-Star Week in mid-July!

 

[CyYoung31]

The Braves just e-mailed out a thank you to fans, basically an end of season recap. They normally do it every year. But with so much uncertainty going into this off season, there are a few lines in there that to me read like we should not expect a miserable off season. Sure, it could mean nothing. But I read it optimistically that we're not going to slash payroll.

"The team defied prognosticators again and again as we won the division, defeated the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card Series and defeated our NL East rivals the Miami Marlins in the Division Series. And while we were one-win shy of a World Series berth, the world witnessed that the Braves are a team to be reckoned with and are poised to have a long and successful run with our young roster."

We can’t wait for 2021 to celebrate our organization's 150th Anniversary and to have the world’s eyes on Truist Park for All-Star Week in mid-July!

If anyone should know, it’s the intern in the PR department writing up the email.

 

[goldfly]

100 games? where is that word coming from?

this is the first i've seen that mentioned anywhere

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

100 games? where is that word coming from?

this is the first i've seen that mentioned anywhere

IIRC it was an arbitrary number used by some baseball exec about the time that NFL started allowing fans in attendance. The quote as I recall "we dont know where we are heading this winter. Another 60 game season will not happen. 100 is not much better without the fan generated income".