zbhargrove
Well-known member
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2020 Field
- Thread starter sturg33
- Start date
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
You're not seeing the polls or the 2018 elections very well.
2018 in a midterm (which have historically favored conservative voters) 9 million more people voted for Democrats than Republicans.
Trump already lost the popular vote in 2016 and seems slated to lose it again.
If the "majority" of the country hates the far left why did 59M americans vote blue in 2018? Why did the majority of Americans vote for Hillary Clinton (who ran what has to be the most disastrous campaign ran in recent memory by a presidential candidate)?
Biden isn't making the same mistakes Hillary is, he's visiting and polling really well in states Hillary lost. At this point, Clinton was +2 While Biden is +7 in polls.
The only thing stopping Biden from winning is Trump's supreme court. That's really it. The numbers are on the wall. The Supreme Court telling states what to count and not count for votes is the only thing stopping Biden. Of course it's likely to not matter. As Biden could easily win enough states that states like Florida and PA don't matter.
Biden isn’t visiting or doing anything. He’s sitting at home. And yes, all the People I know on the left or left of center hate the far left and what they stand for. They all know Biden is a puppet and he won’t hold the real power.
acesfull86
Well-known member
Trump’s path to a legitimate victory is narrow, but it exists.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The 11% chance that FiveThirtyEight gives him seems about right.
I think it is plausible he wins Florida, NC, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Those are all within a standard polling error. And polling errors are often correlated across states.
Arizona and Nebraska 2 look to be a bit more of a lift. Those have emerged as a backup for credibly accused creepy joe should he lose PA.
Losing PA would require a bit more than a standard polling error.
And the states to the left of PA (with the possible exception of NV) look out of reach.
The other tail of the distribution is interesting too. It contains a victory for credibly accused creepy joe in Texas. And some of the polling in Montana, Kansas, Alaska and Nebraska has looked competitive. I've maintained for some time that an outcome in that tail of the distribution needed to be taken seriously.
very poorly chosen one's lead in Nebraska appears to be smaller than credibly accused creepy joe's lead in Wisconsin. Let that sink in for a moment.
#1932
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Turnout is the giant wildcard. It is always important. But because of the pandemic, related changes to voting procedures, high intensity on both sides, it is an even bigger wildcard in this election. Imo it does increase the odds of an outcome in the tails of the probability distribution.
Also, there seems to be some sort of recency effect to how people react to covid surges. We saw that in the polling in Florida during the summer. That seems to have faded. But now there seems to be some movement in the polls in the Midwest in reaction to it.
Also, there seems to be some sort of recency effect to how people react to covid surges. We saw that in the polling in Florida during the summer. That seems to have faded. But now there seems to be some movement in the polls in the Midwest in reaction to it.
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Runnin
Well-known member
The far left. What is that, exactly?
I'm serious, I'd like to know. Is it hairy lesbians in Portland, Oregon or people who drive Priuses? The left has been demonized by right wing media and have become the new Boogieman since Trump has become Putin's lapdog.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It looks like the structural advantage for the GOP from the electoral college is continuing to grow. The structural advantage can be defined as the difference between the popular vote for the country and the vote in the tipping point state. In the last election it was 3%. Pennsylvania was the tipping point state and there was about 3% difference between the national vote and the vote there.
In this election Pennsylvania still looks to be the tipping point state. But the structural advantage (or disadvantage depending on your perspective) is about 4% (9% deficit in the national polls vs 5% deficit in PA).
The structural advantage is related to surplus or wasted votes in non-competitive states. For example, California went from being 19% more Democratic than the rest of the country in 2012 to being 28% more Democratic in 2016. That might help in down ballot races, but from the perspective of the presidential race that's a whole lot of wasted extra votes. And the number of these surplus votes grew a lot in 2016 and that contributed to the structural advantage in the electoral college widening.
In 2020, the widening comes from a different direction. Fewer wasted or surplus votes from deep red states, in particular Texas. It appears that Texas is going to go from being 21% more red than the rest of the country in 2016 to about 10% more red in this election. That's a big reduction in wasted or surplus votes from the GOP account. So it pushes the structural advantage in the electoral college further in the GOP direction.
In this election Pennsylvania still looks to be the tipping point state. But the structural advantage (or disadvantage depending on your perspective) is about 4% (9% deficit in the national polls vs 5% deficit in PA).
The structural advantage is related to surplus or wasted votes in non-competitive states. For example, California went from being 19% more Democratic than the rest of the country in 2012 to being 28% more Democratic in 2016. That might help in down ballot races, but from the perspective of the presidential race that's a whole lot of wasted extra votes. And the number of these surplus votes grew a lot in 2016 and that contributed to the structural advantage in the electoral college widening.
In 2020, the widening comes from a different direction. Fewer wasted or surplus votes from deep red states, in particular Texas. It appears that Texas is going to go from being 21% more red than the rest of the country in 2016 to about 10% more red in this election. That's a big reduction in wasted or surplus votes from the GOP account. So it pushes the structural advantage in the electoral college further in the GOP direction.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
That whole system is so broken. The only time where you live should have any bearing on your vote is when dealing with local government. The idea that my vote for president counted FAR more 8 years ago when I lived in PA than it does now in WV (it is worthless here) is completely bogus.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I dunno. It was a compromise between small and large states. Maybe the constitution is a little bit too hard to amend. I don't sense a strong desire to do away with the electoral college.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Nancy Pelosi, who would rather serve her self interests and villify one guy on his way out than vote for help for the American People qualifies.
But tbh she could be a hairy lesbian Prius driver too. They aren't mutually exclusive. The fact you try to make this point and haven't seen it play out on both sides is crazy talk. Right now you can't attend church and not be a redneck bootlicker chucklehead, so ....
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
The constitution doesn't need to be amended. If we get to the 270 on the national popular vote legislation than the Electoral College is defeated without an amendment.
Personally the way I think it should be held is all congressional districts are an electoral vote. And the senate votes go to whatever candidate won the popular vote.
So Trump still wins in 2016, as the Reps got 241 congressional votes, Dems got 194, Hillary won 21 states so she then gets 42 votes, puts here at 236, which still loses, but is closer. The issue with this is we 100% need non-partisan committee to make the election districts.
msstate7
Well-known member
I'm not sure this board could handle you being right on this.
My man nsacpi finally sees it.
I'll still put in a good word for you with the chosen one. You're intelligent but just misguided.
sturg33
I
I dont why we keep insisting this guy is intelligent.
I can't remember the last thing he has gotten right.
We will see if we get a 1932 election style result, i guess
Maybe but I still believe it. He has just allowed one man to corrupt his mind so much he can't do proper analysis.
I'd wager he is very successful with his intellect being a bedrock of his professional career.