Playoffs discussion 2020

[salmagundy]

Let's hope Turner is a false positive.

No hope from me. My only hope is he didn't infect any of the Rays players.

Additionally, from MLBTR

Major League Baseball announced that it will conduct an investigation into Turner’s violation of health-and-safety protocols and implied that he could be disciplined. The league’s press release reads:

Immediately upon receiving notice from the laboratory of a positive test, protocols were triggered, leading to the removal of Justin Turner from last night’s game. Turner was placed into isolation for the safety of those around him. However, following the Dodgers’ victory, it is clear that Turner chose to disregard the agreed-upon joint protocols and the instructions he was given regarding the safety and protection of others. While a desire to celebrate is understandable, Turner’s decision to leave isolation and enter the field was wrong and put everyone he came in contact with at risk. When MLB Security raised the matter of being on the field with Turner, he emphatically refused to comply.

The Commissioner’s Office is beginning a full investigation into this matter and will consult with the Players Association within the parameters of the joint 2020 Operations Manual.

 

[Freshmaker]

Let's hope Turner is a false positive.

He wasn't. Monday's test came back positive, but since there's been a decent amount of false positives they let him play and asked the lab running the tests to expedite Turner's test he had Tuesday. They went to pull him once that one also came back positive. He was supposed to stay quarantined in a room next to the dugout, but obviously didn't. Will be quite interesting to see if he gets served any sort of suspension next season

 

[CyYoung31]

He wasn't. Monday's test came back positive, but since there's been a decent amount of false positives they let him play and asked the lab running the tests to expedite Turner's test he had Tuesday. They went to pull him once that one also came back positive. He was supposed to stay quarantined in a room next to the dugout, but obviously didn't. Will be quite interesting to see if he gets served any sort of suspension next season

MLB should suspend themselves. Ridiculous.

 

[CyYoung31]

No hope from me. My only hope is he didn't infect any of the Rays players.

Additionally, from MLBTR

Major League Baseball announced that it will conduct an investigation into Turner’s violation of health-and-safety protocols and implied that he could be disciplined. The league’s press release reads:

Immediately upon receiving notice from the laboratory of a positive test, protocols were triggered, leading to the removal of Justin Turner from last night’s game. Turner was placed into isolation for the safety of those around him. However, following the Dodgers’ victory, it is clear that Turner chose to disregard the agreed-upon joint protocols and the instructions he was given regarding the safety and protection of others. While a desire to celebrate is understandable, Turner’s decision to leave isolation and enter the field was wrong and put everyone he came in contact with at risk. When MLB Security raised the matter of being on the field with Turner, he emphatically refused to comply.

The Commissioner’s Office is beginning a full investigation into this matter and will consult with the Players Association within the parameters of the joint 2020 Operations Manual.

That’s a joke.

 

[Super]

Arozarena wasn’t an important part of their success?

..what? that is not at all what i said?
either your comprehension is garbage or you're being intentionally obtuse in your straw man.
obviously he was ****ing important, dummy. he wasn't the only reason they made it to the world series.
they are a team who relies on analytics and competes despite their payroll because they do it better than other teams.

 

[Southcack77]

i would argue there was little in analytics that suggested bringing Anderson in there. the only thing that can be cited is 3rd time thru the order. other than that, it was a pretty poor analytical decision.

3rd time through the order is quite significant though.

I didn't watch so I didn't have the benefit of feeling how great the dude was pitching apparently.

 

[Enscheff]

It is impossible to defend cash on this one. This is potentially your last game of the year and you’ve got to go with snell there. One, snell a third time through the way he was pitching is a better option than anything you have in your pen. Also betts hits right handed pitching better so going to the rightie was a dumb move You have to live and die with snell there.

It's odd to me we haven't all learned the folly of the "he was cruising" line. We have seen time and time again a "cruising" pitcher suddenly get hammered when facing the top of a lineup a 3rd time.

They track the TTO penalty, but I'm unaware of any similar stat about pitch counts. Facing Betts a 3rd time at 73 pitches is quite obviously different than facing him a 3rd time at 90 pitches. That's the argument to make, not some silly cliche about "he was cruising".

Perhaps Snell gets to face Betts/Seager a 3rd time if the bases were empty, or if the lead was more than 1 run.

But criticizing the decisions made by the smartest organization in the sport with the benefit of hindsight is pretty dumb. The fact they always make the right move is why they won 40 games despite a microscopic payroll. Even the optimal decision is only a few percentage points better than the next best choice, and a single undesirable outcomes doesn't change that calculus.

 

[Tapate50]

It's odd to me we haven't all learned the folly of the "he was cruising" line. We have seen time and time again a "cruising" pitcher suddenly get hammered when facing the top of a lineup a 3rd time.

They track the TTO penalty, but I'm unaware of any similar stat about pitch counts. Facing Betts a 3rd time at 73 pitches is quite obviously different than facing him a 3rd time at 90 pitches. That's the argument to make, not some silly cliche about "he was cruising".

Perhaps Snell gets to face Betts/Seager a 3rd time if the bases were empty, or if the lead was more than 1 run.

But criticizing the decisions made by the smartest organization in the sport with the benefit of hindsight is pretty dumb. The fact they always make the right move is why they won 40 games despite a microscopic payroll. Even the optimal decision is only a few percentage points better than the next best choice, and a single undesirable outcomes doesn't change that calculus.

You prefer "had his best stuff" or "dominating" over "cruising"?

I guess one would indicate he wasn't having difficulty vs the quality of his pitches?

 

[Enscheff]

You prefer "had his best stuff" or "dominating" over "cruising"?

I guess one would indicate he wasn't having difficulty vs the quality of his pitches?

I'd prefer for folks to realize that no matter what phraseology is used, pitchers tend to struggle when facing the order a 3rd time. It is a proven fact, and one the Rays has used to help them win consistently with tiny payrolls.

 

[MadduxFanII]

One of the issues you see in just about every sport is that there might be some rules or broad guidelines that everybody (or at least most people) accept are reasonable and evidence-based: so, for example, don't let your starter face the lineup a third time, especially if the game is close and you can't afford a mistake. But people have a tendency to say, "Yes, but:" yes, I accept that's true, but my guy is an exception for reasons xyz. You used to see this about 10-15 years ago when DIPS really took off - fans would look at one of their pitchers who had a deceptively low ERA and come up with reasons why DIPS was totally legitimate, but this pitcher had something unique about him that allowed him to over-perform his peripherals (Hi, Horacio Ramirez).

So it's really easy to say something like, "Analytics should absolutely inform your decision-making process within a game, but you need to balance it with observation and understand when it's OK to make moves that violate analytical truisms." Who could disagree with that? But identifying when you're witnessing a true exception is essentially impossible, and a lot of managers have lost a lot of games because they thought their pitcher was cruising and could get another couple innings.