Georgia Senate Runoff

[nsacpi]

Coincidence that blind trust knew when to sell.
To profit off of a pandemic.
......

As if just fell off the truck

The people who run blind trusts will generally do a good job. There was plenty of publicly available information that would motivate an investor to do those things.

When this story broke, I thought the only senator who might have done something wrong was Richard Burr. He seems to actively trade the stock market and the timing of his trades closely ties in with some intelligence briefings he attended. Even in his case, I'd bet he doesn't get charged. Because there was also all this publicly available information. I believe his defense was he watched CNBC. And it's a plausible defense. The stock market (and CNBC covering it) was aware of the ramifications of the virus before almost anyone else.

 

[chop2chip]

Who cares ?
My guess is she gets primaried anyway

Who cares about Loeffler then.

I prefer Striker’s approach to analyzing politicians. It’s less mess.

 

[57Brave]

Loeffler is my Senate representitive.
I care

 

[chop2chip]

Loeffler is my Senate representitive.
I care

and Feinstein is my senate representative.

It is your right to vote her out. I think I would do the same if I were a GA citizen.

But don't say who cares to Feinstein when you care about Loeffler. Its the same sin.

 

[57Brave]

sure ---

we are talking about the run off in Georgia.
Not Californian politics.
Last I checked, DF was not on the ballot.
In that vein, I don't care about Feinstein or Imhoff or Burr

 

[striker42]

The people who run blind trusts will generally do a good job. There was plenty of publicly available information that would motivate an investor to do those things.

When this story broke, I thought the only senator who might have done something wrong was Richard Burr. He seems to actively trade the stock market and the timing of his trades closely ties in with some intelligence briefings he attended. Even in his case, I'd bet he doesn't get charged. Because there was also all this publicly available information. I believe his defense was he watched CNBC. And it's a plausible defense. The stock market (and CNBC covering it) was aware of the ramifications of the virus before almost anyone else.

I've wondered how much was money men knowing what they were doing as well. These people are going to have the best money managers out there and it really wouldn't take inside information for them to foresee what was about to happen. So I don't know. The timing is suspicious but the details have been hazy.

 

[goldfly]

man, i hope Ga shows up again

hate both of these cunts

 

[striker42]

So control of the Senate comes down to two Georgia races as the Republicans now have a confirmed 50 seats.

Currently, my prediction is Perdue takes down Osoff but Warnock defeats Loeffler. It's an odd result but I could see enough people going to the polls and voting in only one of the elections because they don't like the candidates in the other.

 

[msstate7]

So control of the Senate comes down to two Georgia races as the Republicans now have a confirmed 50 seats.

Currently, my prediction is Perdue takes down Osoff but Warnock defeats Loeffler. It's an odd result but I could see enough people going to the polls and voting in only one of the elections because they don't like the candidates in the other.

That's fine. I'll take that right now. Good thing machin already said he wouldn't back adding new states, removing filibuster, and packing court.

 

[57Brave]

I dont expect turnout as high for (R) as general without 45 on ballot
(D) has wind at their back.

Wont be surprised by a sweep.
Either side

 

[striker42]

I dont expect turnout as high for (R) as general without 45 on ballot
(D) has wind at their back.

Wont be surprised by a sweep.
Either side

I don't expect as high of turnout from Democrats without Trump on the ballot either. LOTS of ballots cast for Biden and nothing down the ballot.

 

[57Brave]

You are misreading the influence of Stacey Abrams.

 

[chop2chip]

I dont expect turnout as high for (R) as general without 45 on ballot
(D) has wind at their back.

Wont be surprised by a sweep.
Either side

Yeah. Dems definitely could win both of these seats, especially if R enthusiasm is low.

 

[striker42]

You are misreading the influence of Stacey Abrams.

I think you are misreading the fact that angry voters are more likely to turn out than happy voters. Democrats are coming off a Biden victory. Republicans are coming off a Trump defeat. Voters with a chance to voice their frustration turnout at a higher rate than voters who want to voice contentment.

Also, Abrams will be running a much shorter timeline. I also expect her to encounter some resistance from Republicans who will be keeping a close eye on her efforts. Georgia has pretty strict laws against ballot harvesting. If her group steps over the line then she could be in hot water.

 

[striker42]

Yeah. Dems definitely could win both of these seats, especially if R enthusiasm is low.

They absolutely could win both seats. It's going to be a fairly close election. I'm just not sure why republican's would stay home. This has a lot of the hallmarks of a mid-term election as Republicans will see this as an opportunity to strike a blow to Biden. With Trump almost out the door it's going to be harder to motivate Democrats to the polls.

 

[striker42]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...trol-of-the-senate-heres-what-we-know-so-far/

"Another reason Democrats might do worse in the runoff: It’s an off-cycle election that will no longer share the ballot with the presidential race. Now that Biden is the president-elect, many Democratic voters may feel that their mission has been accomplished and not bother to vote in the runoff. This is exactly what happened in previous Georgia runoffs — whether for Senate or other statewide offices. Since the late 1960s, the state has seen eight runoffs between a Democrat and a Republican for statewide office, and as you can see in the table below, in seven of the eight runoffs, Republican vote share margins improved, sometimes substantially so, as turnout fell sharply from the general election vote in November."

It's not that the Democrats can't win these seats. It's that they're starting off from a disadvantage. They had record turnout in the general election and still fell short of the Republicans in the Senate races. It will take either insane Democrat turnout or poor Republican turnout for them to take both seats.

 

[nsacpi]

I'm guessing turnout will be down for both sides. Comes down to a question of how much on each.

 

[striker42]

I'm guessing turnout will be down for both sides. Comes down to a question of how much on each.

Yep. I don't expect it to be down as much as normal just with the stakes and what happened in the recent election. But I could easily see a 30% drop. Which side will come out stronger?

 

[zitothebrave]

Yep. I don't expect it to be down as much as normal just with the stakes and what happened in the recent election. But I could easily see a 30% drop. Which side will come out stronger?

I fully expect Biden surrogates to be campaigning in the states

 

[nsacpi]

I fully expect Biden surrogates to be campaigning in the states

what about very poorly chosen one...he probably will want to hold some rallies