Braves sign Drew Smyly

So one interesting thing is that 2019 looked so terrible for Smyly and overall it did. But there was marked improvement during the year. As we know, coming back from TJS many pitchers struggle getting comfortable again and control is the last thing to come back. With the Rangers in 2019 he had an 8.42 ERA with 5.96 BB/9 in 51.1 innings. When he went to Philly things improved quite a bit. He had a 4.45 ERA (4.79 FIP, 4.26 xFIP) and 3.02 BB/9 in 62.2 innings with Philly. He had 0.6 fWAR with Philly in those 62.2 innings. Now he's added some velocity (hard to say if its a real increase with only 26.1 innings but its not unheard of after some pitchers have TJS to increase velocity) and he's throwing his reinvented curve more. I think there's actually a ton of room for optimism if he can stay healthy.

On there surface it looks as if his 26.1 innings in 2020 was the only recent improvement but in reality, more than half of his 2019 showed marked improvement as well and fits right along what we usually see with pitchers recovering from TJS.
 
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zbhargrove said:
So one interesting thing is that 2019 looked so terrible for Smyly and overall it did. But there was marked improvement during the year. As we know, coming back from TJS many pitchers struggle getting comfortable again and control is the last thing to come back. With the Rangers in 2019 he had an 8.42 ERA with 5.96 BB/9 in 51.1 innings. When he went to Philly things improved quite a bit. He had a 4.45 ERA (4.79 FIP, 4.26 xFIP) and 3.02 BB/9 in 62.2 innings with Philly. He had 0.6 fWAR with Philly in those 62.2 innings. Now he's added some velocity (hard to say if its a real increase with only 26.1 innings but its not unheard of after some pitchers have TJS to increase velocity) and he's throwing his reinvented curve more. I think there's actually a ton of room for optimism if he can stay healthy.

On there surface it looks as if his 26.1 innings in 2020 was the only recent improvement but in reality, more than half of his 2019 showed marked improvement as well and fits right along what we usually see with pitchers recovering from TJS.
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I almost hate to bring it up, but for the first half of the 2017 season, Alex Wood added a couple of ticks to his fastball and was basically unhittable. Then his arm gave out a bit, his velocity went back to where it sat normally, and (while he finished 2017 in good shape) he came back to Earth. Still effective and a bargain at $6 MM for 2018 (even given injury-risk), but not a knock-out guy he had been during his spectacular streak. I'm not ready to buy the velocity increase on Smyly over an entire season and I just think $11 MM is over-market. We'll see how it plays out and it is only one year for good or ill.
 
50PoundHead said:
I almost hate to bring it up, but for the first half of the 2017 season, Alex Wood added a couple of ticks to his fastball and was basically unhittable. Then his arm gave out a bit, his velocity went back to where it sat normally, and (while he finished 2017 in good shape) he came back to Earth. Still effective and a bargain at $6 MM for 2018 (even given injury-risk), but not a knock-out guy he had been during his spectacular streak. I'm not ready to buy the velocity increase on Smyly over an entire season and I just think $11 MM is over-market. We'll see how it plays out and it is only one year for good or ill.
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I'm not buying the velocity uptick (at least as significant as it was in 2020) completely. But I am buying his more effective and more frequent curve ball use which could help explain his increased K-rate somewhat. At least the second half of 2019 with Philly shows precedent that he can be a solid back end option with upside if some of the velocity is for real.
 
Enscheff said:
Smyly doesn't seem like he should be the first SP off the board making $11M in 2021. I was hoping for a much more reliable SP as the main addition to the rotation, and this feels like an overpay that was made way too early.

I'll join others in hoping this is a great sign that AA has a lot more cash to spend than we feared, and that his 2020 numbers hold for 2021.
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2021 is going to be lean for regular people due to the economy, but couple that with the effect that the pandemic has had on the Braves (no fans, lack of Battery $$) and I just don't see how we can/will expand payroll.

This move was dumb, just like getting Gausman/Malone.
 
zbhargrove said:
I'm not buying the velocity uptick (at least as significant as it was in 2020) completely. But I am buying his more effective and more frequent curve ball use which could help explain his increased K-rate somewhat. At least the second half of 2019 with Philly shows precedent that he can be a solid back end option with upside if some of the velocity is for real.
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No doubt he can still be effective. I'm skeptical about the velocity uptick being central to the signing.
 
I just read the athletic article. Lots of AA quotes. AA compared it to the TDA signing.

It's clear AA believes in the upside and the health. He's paying him like a fourth starter and thinking maybe he can be more.

I am still really surprised at this person and this money.

I hope he's right. I wish AA would get some club options on these deals if they are going to hit like he thinks.
 
50PoundHead said:
No doubt he can still be effective. I'm skeptical about the velocity uptick being central to the signing.
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Definitely. I wasn't trying to advertise the velocity uptick as the motivation for the signing. If I did come across that way, I didn't mean to.
 
CrazyTrain said:
2021 is going to be lean for regular people due to the economy, but couple that with the effect that the pandemic has had on the Braves (no fans, lack of Battery $$) and I just don't see how we can/will expand payroll.

This move was dumb, just like getting Gausman/Malone.
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how was getting Gausman dumb?
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Most businesses seem to still be open. And for the playoffs there was a ton of people there for the watch parties...
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Here's the thing about The Battery. Unless I'm incorrect, I thought the Braves owned the real estate and rented out the buildings to tenants. So just because foot traffic may have been down, the Braves would still be collecting rent from tenants (unless they shut down, which were unclear if any have).
 
NYCBrave said:
Here's the thing about The Battery. Unless I'm incorrect, I thought the Braves owned the real estate and rented out the buildings to tenants. So just because foot traffic may have been down, the Braves would still be collecting rent from tenants (unless they shut down, which were unclear if any have).
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What about parking throughout the battery?
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
What about parking throughout the battery?
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Well Liberty Media recently reported earnings and they did give a breakdown although didn't quite get into specifics. Here's what they said about the Battery.

The Braves also saw a small dip in development revenue (from $9 million to $8 million), which derives from the Battery Atlanta mixed-use facilities and primarily includes rental income.
 
NYCBrave said:
Well Liberty Media recently reported earnings and they did give a breakdown although didn't quite get into specifics. Here's what they said about the Battery.

The Braves also saw a small dip in development revenue (from $9 million to $8 million), which derives from the Battery Atlanta mixed-use facilities and primarily includes rental income.
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Honestly, a good portion of that $1m loss could have been parking....
 
CrazyTrain said:
He sucks and we needed a better pitcher at the time.
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i completely disagree. he was solid after he was acquired. he doesn't "suck" by any means. his results were rough in 2019 but it was pretty obviously not real as his results matched his peripherals much more closely this past season.
 
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