Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

The Dodgers getting Arenado would open up the door for the Braves grabbing Turner on a short deal. MLBTR pegs him at 2/24, which is a reasonable contract for a 3 win player, and (hopefully) leaves a good bit of cash to get a LHH platoon partner for Duvall.

I would prefer Turner on a short deal to giving up any prospect capital for 1 year of Bryant. Turner is better and supposedly cheaper.
 
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Enscheff said:
The Dodgers getting Arenado would open up the door for the Braves grabbing Turner on a short deal. MLBTR pegs him at 2/24, which is a reasonable contract for a 3 win player, and (hopefully) leaves a good bit of cash to get a LHH platoon partner for Duvall.

I would prefer Turner on a short deal to giving up any prospect capital for 1 year of Bryant. Turner is better and supposedly cheaper.
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Would you hold on to Riley to play LF or trade him?
 
Maybe my imagination but I think it speaks volumns that Dodgers haven't publicly intoned keeping Turner after winning the WS. Is it possible they are pissed by his actions?
 
Arenado (29+) is 6 1/2 years younger than Turner (36 next week), so there is that, but Arenado had a terrible year (although I think performance in 2020 has to be viewed through a different lens) and Turner just keeps chugging along. I'd be alright with Turner if he becomes available. He's not going to be as expensive as Ozuna and that would provide some flexibility for investment in a LHH OF. Of course, if the DH is in play, Ozuna may be the better route.
 
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msstate7 said:
Doubt that. Probably just looking to upgrade
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right. i think they'd happily take Turner back if he were what's left. but why not try and add one of the best players in the game? not like they can't afford his $, and they'll probably not have to give up much prospect-wise if they take on the whole contract.
 
50PoundHead said:
The question on non-tenders is always do you secure a guy you want before they hit the open market. I frankly don't know what the Twins would want. It would likely be major league-ready pitching and we do have some of that, but is that worth a guy who will probably be in Atlanta for one year. I'll have a stathead look it up, but from the naked eye (and I'm severely near-sighted), Rosario has terrible--almost Francoeurish--plate discipline. Swings at a ton of crap. The difference between him and Francoeur is that he puts the ball in play with more authority on a lot of those bad pitches (which encourages him to continue doing it). He's a decent LF although his surface-level stats don't look that great. Having seen a lot of him up here in Minnesota, he's done alright, but I can't put any kind of value on him with any level of certainty.
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Yeah - I wouldn't give up anyone that figures into our long-term plans (probably means it has to be short of Touki).

I agree he's not the long-term "answer" by any stretch, but we're just looking to bridge to Waters at this point. As you mentioned earlier, the shorter the contract the better. This lends itself to Rosario and Schwarber as "better" options than Pederson since you only have to pay them for one year AND you don't get into a situation where two or three teams are interested and drive the bidding on someone that's a free-agent higher than you're comfortable with.

Neither Rosario or Schwarber are ideal since each has his faults, but my assumption is that if the money was available for AA to fork over $11 million for Smyly, there's enough there to pay either of those guys while also keeping Duvall for at least this year. Platooning Rosario/Schwarber and Duvall - even if it's not a strict platoon - ought to make LF pretty *amn productive, even though it would fall short of Ozuna-level productive.

Our low-end guess was that AA had around $25 million to spend even if Duvall was kept. If he fills the SP and LF spots for ~ $20 million, it becomes relatively easy to non-tender Camargo/Jackson/Dayton (saving roughly $5 million) to leave him with around $10 million to spend. JMO, but I think it's reasonable to believe he could replace those three with Shaw, Melancon, and whichever of Touki/Newk/Ynoa/De La Cruz/Davidson is still here for that $10 million (assuming Shaw is non-tendered too, of course).

While not the sexy names fans want, having Rosario/Schwarber to platoon with Duvall and Shaw to platoon with Riley makes for what should be a really potent - and balanced - offense while you've improved the rotation and maintained a really deep pen.
 
50PoundHead said:
I think Riley Delgado is a great story and all, but color me surprised if he ever gets an AB at the major league level in 2021.
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Considering the fact that Hechavarria played a total of 182 innings total with us (less than half of them when he got here) at SS in 2019, we're probably looking at a grand total of 100 or so ABs for the backup SS over the course of a full season if Dansby doesn't get hurt - the cheapest guy that can handle the position defensively will likely always be the best choice to fill that roster spot until Swanson leaves.
 
With the Astros, Mayfield served as a right-handed-hitting backup at second base, shortstop and third base, grading well defensively at each position. He also still has minor league options remaining
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The fact that he’s bottom-barrel cheap, grades well at all three non-1B IF positions, and has options remaining make this an easy sell, given Hechavarría’s veteran contractual status and offensive limitations. The fact that Mayfield has shown good pop at AAA is icing on the cake.
 
clvclv said:
Considering the fact that Hechavarria played a total of 182 innings total with us (less than half of them when he got here) at SS in 2019, we're probably looking at a grand total of 100 or so ABs for the backup SS over the course of a full season if Dansby doesn't get hurt - the cheapest guy that can handle the position defensively will likely always be the best choice to fill that roster spot until Swanson leaves.
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That's true and the major leagues was full of guys like Mayfield and Delgado back in the days of 10-man pitching staffs, but if we are only giving that many innings to the back-up SS, Albies could play there for a day and Mayfield or Kozma could be called up depending on the severity of the injury. With short benches, everybody on it better be able to hit.
 
Dude is 30 and can't hit at all. I would be shocked if he is anything other than AAAA filler at SS. Literally the 4th option at SS behind Swanson, whoever replaces Hech/Culberson/Camargo, and Albies. The Braves didn't have that guy in the system before today, and now they do.

If this guy is the backup IFer in 2021 then AA has no money, and gambling on Smyly with $11M was a bad move. The Braves are in bad financial shape if they had to cut costs by paying this guy $600k rather than paying a real MLB SS $1M.
 
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EL at FG posted his non-tender predictions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/presenting-a-mock-non-tenderizing/

Players of note (he pegged Refroe as likely, 1 for 1 so far):

Braves - Luke Jackson likely, Camargo tough call. I could easily see both going. Give me Riley and a Hech replacement over Camargo all day...easy call.

Blue Jay - Shaw likely. This seems like a great use of a few million bucks by the Braves if a bat like Bryant or Turner isn't acquired for 3B. I think I'd prefer a cheap Shaw/Riley platoon over Bryant when considering overall cost and the potential for Riley to improve, assuming they add a big bat at DH.

Cubs - Schwarber tough call, Bryant unlikely. I never bought into the idea of non-tendering Bryant, but his trade value is certainly low. I don't see Schwarber fitting on this team unless the DH is allowed in 2021 and a few other options fall through. Bryant works if no Turner and no DH bat.

Twins - Rosario likely. Folks like clv have been on this guy since this thread started, and he seems like a great platoon match with Duvall. His 2020 OPS vs RHP was .882, and his career mark is .818. An OF of Acuna, Duvall, Rosario, Ender and eventually Pache is very cost effective.

If the Braves can add Rosario and Shaw as platoon bats at OF and 3B for around $10M total, and add someone like Cruz to DH, this lineup will be very potent. If the DH isn't in play for 2021 AA will have to do better than platoons at 3B and/or LF, and that's where guys like Bryant, Turner, Springer and maybe Ozuna come into play.
 
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Enscheff said:
EL at FG posted his non-tender predictions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/presenting-a-mock-non-tenderizing/

Players of note (he pegged Refroe as likely, 1 for 1 so far):

Braves - Luke Jackson likely, Camargo tough call. I could easily see both going. Give me Riley and a Hech replacement over Camargo all day...easy call.

Blue Jay - Shaw likely. This seems like a great use of a few million bucks by the Braves if a bat like Bryant or Turner isn't acquired for 3B. I think I'd prefer a cheap Shaw/Riley platoon over Bryant when considering overall cost and the potential for Riley to improve, assuming they add a big bat at DH.

Cubs - Schwarber tough call, Bryant unlikely. I never bought into the idea of non-tendering Bryant, but his trade value is certainly low. I don't see Schwarber fitting on this team unless the DH is allowed in 2021 and a few other options fall through. Bryant works if no Turner and no DH bat.

Twins - Rosario likely. Folks like clv have been on this guy since this thread started, and he seems like a great platoon match with Duvall. His 2020 OPS vs RHP was .882, and his career mark is .818. An OF of Acuna, Duvall, Rosario, Ender and eventually Pache is very cost effective.

If the Braves can add Rosario and Shaw as platoon bats at OF and 3B for around $10M total, and add someone like Cruz to DH, this lineup will be very potent. If the DH isn't in play for 2021 AA will have to do better than platoons at 3B and/or LF, and that's where guys like Bryant, Turner, Springer and maybe Ozuna come into play.
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The question - as it will continue to be all winter - is just how much AA has to spend. Say we get incredibly lucky and can land Rosario for $6 million and Shaw for $4 million. That pushes payroll to ~ $114.5 million with Camargo/Jackson/Dayton non-tendered, A-Jax/Contreras as the backup C, and Newk and Ynoa in the pen. If you add Melancon/Greene/veteran pen arm, you're at $120 million - can AA go as far as $130 million? After the Smyly signing, I feel better about that number - and I still think he could get everything done without handing out anything more than one year deals even if there is a DH in 2021. There's a name out there we haven't talked about yet that could be another fit - Carlos Santana.

Think about it - a switch-hitter with power from both sides that can give Freeman regular days off defensively to rest and stay healthy that would probably jump all over a one year deal to play for a contender as close as the Braves are. Santana had a down year last year, but how much of it was driven by his .212 BABIP? His BB and K rates were still off the charts. The power numbers were down a bit, but how much of that had to do with Lindor's bad year and the fact that they had NO ONE else that could hit which put more on his shoulders? Steamer projects Santana for a .240/.362/.440 line, .342 wOBA, 112 wRC+ and 26 bombs in 2021. If AA could add him for $10 million, you'd still come in at $130 million total.

I think I could really get behind a lineup of Acuna, Freeman, Santana, Rosario/Duvall, d'Arnaud/Contreras, Ozzie, Dansby, Shaw/Riley, Ender/Pache - especially since it would leave so many options open moving forward.

With the questions about a Freeman extension and next winter's huge free-agent class on the horizon, I'd just as soon get one more look at Riley. If 2022 payroll returns to the pre-virus 2020 number, AA could extend Freddie AND sign Bryant if he chooses (assuming Riley doesn't take another step forward). If Riley keeps improving, there are plenty of potential bats you could look at as potential DH/1B/OF types (J. D. Martinez, Santana, Castellanos, Soler, Rosario, Brandon Belt), and AA could potentially look at Lynn or McCullers to take Smyly's spot in the rotation.
 
jpx7 said:
The fact that he’s bottom-barrel cheap, grades well at all three non-1B IF positions, and has options remaining make this an easy sell, given Hechavarría’s veteran contractual status and offensive limitations. The fact that Mayfield has shown good pop at AAA is icing on the cake.
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In the pacific league.
 
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