Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

clvclv said:
Which one of them has a better LF/3B/DH? Duvall's money isn't the issue - it's not guaranteed - it disappears if you get a better LF/DH. What would you trade him to the Indians or Tigers to get? You can give Ozuna or Seager or Turner $18 million this year and feel like you're "only" paying them $12 million by getting rid of Duvall, but you'll still have Riley at 3B or in LF.

It's obvious that AA's been given more latitude to spend than most of us expected, but I promise you there's a limit - and after spending $26 million on the rotation he's going to be coming up on it pretty fast. It's perfectly reasonable at this point to imagine he has another $15-$20 million to spend, but expecting Pederson and Seager as platoon partners AND Ozuna if there's a DH is going to leave you incredibly disappointed. Sorry.

In all likelihood AA can afford ONE big bat or solid upgrades at 3B and in LF - and that's with no DH.
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You have me confused with someone else. I have never advocated Pederson, never stated that Ozuna is the answer at DH and as you can see in this page of gripes I do not think Seager is the answer but I know that as soon as AA whispers in your ear you will send us at least a novella if he doesnt cede to your wishes and a 800 page novel if he does.
 
CrimeDog247 said:
The difference in the two is not significant enough to spend that much more money. Anyone using that narrative is completely wrong.
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But it is, at least in regards to Riley and Seagar only. Obliviously there are other guys available v that might represent better values. But if you're only 2 options are Riley for doing it cheap or Seagar at his contract, the answer is Seagar no question.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Seager is 33. His x axis is going down. Riley is 24 and has improved. His is going up. Where do they meet. That is your answer. I wouldn’t trade Riley for seager straight up.
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This is the whole point. No one should argue that Riley has had a better career than Seager, but BR says they will have the same level 2021. I can't help but predict Riley has the better career from this point on. I would hate a Riley for Seager trade. The money would be wasted and not only not improve 3B (to any significance) but immediately hurt where ever else we could spend the $18M. Opportunity cost are real and critical to consider.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
The deadline to tender contracts for 2021 is now 1 week away. Who do you think the Braves will cut loose?

I can see Camargo and Dayton for sure. Duvall is up in the air. With the amount we have spent on the rotation, does that mean Jackson is safe?
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Luke should be non-tendered at 2 mil in this market. You can find someone better than him at that money, or give that to MM or Greene.
 
Heyward said:
Luke should be non-tendered at 2 mil in this market. You can find someone better than him at that money, or give that to MM or Greene.
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I agree. There should be ample options on the market to replace Jackson.

We don't know how the market for hitters is going to shake out, but I think Duvall is on the cusp as a non-tender. It is probably unlikely to happen given the holes in the line-up right now, but it wouldn't surprise me that much.
 
50PoundHead said:
I agree. There should be ample options on the market to replace Jackson.

We don't know how the market for hitters is going to shake out, but I think Duvall is on the cusp as a non-tender. It is probably unlikely to happen given the holes in the line-up right now, but it wouldn't surprise me that much.
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If you non-tender Duvall, you have TDA, FF, Ozzie, Swanson, Riley, Pache, Acuna, with 2 spots pending the DH. Theoretically you could roll with TDA, FF, Ozzie, Swanson, Riley, Duvall, Pache, and Acuna. But surely AA is no idiot and will add a bat or two to bolster the lineup now. I'm sure he like everyone is waiting on the official announcement of the DH before doing so.
 
I really hate to get this started again today but I think the non tenders list will dictate a lot towards AAs next step. There are some interesting names out there as possible non tenders. Pat Valaika, Maikel Franco, Travis Shaw any of which could probably be had and play 3d as well as move RIley to LF enabling AA to sign Ozuna when the DH notice comes out. Also all of the pundits at least nod at the possibility of Bryant coming to Atlanta if Chi decides to trade him or even possibly non tender him tho I doubt the non tender part. Bryant can DH or play LF or 3d.

I think it is telling that the two pitchers were signed which frees up some pretty good trade chips from the left over pitchers. For more clues look at Cubs prospect list. Very few pitchers available.

Just to be clear, I am not advocating for Ozuna since I have read Cruz and Puig as possible candidates to DH. I use Ozuna since he will undoubtedly be the most expensive.
 
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Heyward said:
If you non-tender Duvall, you have TDA, FF, Ozzie, Swanson, Riley, Pache, Acuna, with 2 spots pending the DH. Theoretically you could roll with TDA, FF, Ozzie, Swanson, Riley, Duvall, Pache, and Acuna. But surely AA is no idiot and will add a bat or two to bolster the lineup now. I'm sure he like everyone is waiting on the official announcement of the DH before doing so.
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If I am understanding you, I tend to agree that non-tendering Duvall would create a hole, but we don't have any idea (and I really don't think anyone industry-wide has it truly figured out) what the non-tender market is going to look like. Over at MLBTR, they estimate Duvall at anywhere between $4.5 MM and $7.1 MM, so let's just go with $5 MM (which I think is reasonable). If there is a glut of Duvall-types in the market created by the number of non-tenders, can you save $2 MM to $3 MM off that number and still get the production?

I'm guessing Camargo and Jackson are gone and Dayton is likely to be gone. Duvall is the question mark for me. I'm not on the edge of my seat, but I'm guessing there will be a lot of surprises come next Wednesday at the non-tender deadline.
 
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Just for consideration: Obviously none of us know the actual payroll coming up. We do know that Hamels, Markakis and Flowers are very very unlikely to return. Note that those 3 were under contract for $26M last year. Morton and Smyly are signed for the exact same money. Almost like a grocery list shopping.
 
bravesguy said:
This is the whole point. No one should argue that Riley has had a better career than Seager, but BR says they will have the same level 2021. I can't help but predict Riley has the better career from this point on. I would hate a Riley for Seager trade. The money would be wasted and not only not improve 3B (to any significance) but immediately hurt where ever else we could spend the $18M. Opportunity cost are real and critical to consider.
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From this point on? May be. Over the next 2 years I'm taking Seagar by at least 2 WAR. Point to projections all you want, but Riley is a bad player. He was a negative overall player in 2020. And he still is beyond awful vs RHP. I would say the likelihood of him becoming even an above average starter is pretty low. He's still young enough to where it could happen, but I'm pretty skeptical.

Not saying I would want to trade him for Seagar. I don't think that's terribly good value for us. I also am not even saying Seagar is the best option at 3b. But I don't think losing Riley is going to come back to bite us.

My dream scenario since Cleveland seems to be selling their stars, is to back up the prospect truck for Jose Ramirez.
 
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Carp said:
From this point on? May be. Over the next 2 years I'm taking Seagar by at least 2 WAR. Point to projections all you want, but Riley is a bad player. He was a negative overall player in 2020. And he still is beyond awful vs RHP. I would say the likelihood of him becoming even an above average starter is pretty low. He's still young enough to where it could happen, but I'm pretty skeptical.

Not saying I would want to trade him for Seagar. I don't think that's terribly good value for us. I also am not even saying Seagar is the best option at 3b. But I don't think losing Riley is going to come back to bite us.

My dream scenario since Cleveland seems to be selling their stars, is to back up the prospect truck for Jose Ramirez.
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Afraid he's the one guy they won't move - their fanbase is liable to revolt since they have him locked up to such a cheap deal. Maybe THE guy I could actually see unloading the type of haul they'd be looking for to pry away - would probably give up more for him than Chapman. Just have to wonder if Riley, Waters, one of the Catchers, and Muller would be enough to get it done? Non-tender Duvall and sign Brantley to a 2 year deal with an option.
 
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clvclv said:
Afraid he's the one guy they won't move - their fanbase is liable to revolt since they have him locked up to such a cheap deal. Maybe THE guy I could actually see unloading the type of haul they'd be looking for to pry away - would probably give up more for him than Chapman. Just have to wonder if Riley, Waters, one of the Catchers, and Muller would be enough to get it done? Non-tender Duvall and sign Brantley to a 2 year deal with an option.
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Hell I'd be willing to listen on Anderson if Ramirez was in play, though he'd have to make up most of the deal.
 
clvclv said:
Afraid he's the one guy they won't move - their fanbase is liable to revolt since they have him locked up to such a cheap deal. Maybe THE guy I could actually see unloading the type of haul they'd be looking for to pry away - would probably give up more for him than Chapman. Just have to wonder if Riley, Waters, one of the Catchers, and Muller would be enough to get it done? Non-tender Duvall and sign Brantley to a 2 year deal with an option.
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I like Chapman idea! Why not call Boston for Benintendi to platoon with Duvall!
 
Carp said:
Hell I'd be willing to listen on Anderson if Ramirez was in play, though he'd have to make up most of the deal.
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If they'd have been smart and traded Lindor last year while he had serious value and followed that up with trades of Carrasco and Ramirez this winter they'd have put themselves in position to go on a run like the Dodgers are on (or the one we had back in the 90s-00s). They'd still have Bieber/Civale/Plesac/McKenzie in their rotation with 2-3 more premium prospect arms for depth, Karinchak as their Closer, a stable full of SERIOUS offensive prospects and absolutely no money tied up in anyone.
 
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Interesting question...

If Ian Happ is what we HOPE Waters is going to turn into, would you give up Waters and one of Wright/Wilson/Touki/Muller to get Happ now??? SP depth takes a hit, but AA can fish through the scrap heap that's left towards the end of the winter to find a veteran SP (or two) to bring in on a split deal like King Felix last season, and you solve ALL your payroll issues.

Assuming - and yes Paw Paw, this is all any of us (including you) can do regardless of the number you choose to use - that AA's expected to bring payroll in in the $140 million range that leaves him about $15 million as of today if no one is non-tendered. Happ's projected to make $3.55 million in 2021. Go ahead and non-tender Duvall ($5.75 million) and add his money to the remaining $11.5 million to re-sign Ozuna for the 4 years/$70 million FanGraphs projection - even if they haven't made a decision about the DH for this season since it's probably fair to assume that it will be here for sure in 2022. Acuna plays CF to start the season with Happ in RF, Ender comes in late as a defensive replacement for Ozuna, and Pache gets to spend the entire year in Gwinnett if he needs to. Riley stays at 3B and we get another year to see where his adjustments take him and you have plenty of money in Morton/Smyly/Ender/d'Arnaud coming off the books next winter in the event you need to move on from him.

Given the rotation upgrades (and health, of course) I honestly believe we're at least co-favorites to advance from the NL if the lineup looks like Acuna/Freeman/Ozuna/Happ/d'Arnaud/Ozzie/Dansby/Riley. You could carry both A-Jax and Contreras and have them hit behind Riley when they play and split the DH ABs between Ozuna and d'Arnaud if there actually is a DH this season.
 
You are the only one of the two of us whom I recall making any assumptions. Wait, assumptions dont apply to you since you stated unequivically for days on end since forever ago that $120M was the ceiling. In fact I recall you being totally against non tendering Duvall in favor of a Pederson platoon. Now you put Duvall out there without a job? Unbelievable. And where did Happs name come up from. I dont recall seeing anything about Happ being on the market. Waters and another former 1st round pick for Happ? Unbelievable.

Can hardly wait for tomorrow for your next fantasy team construction. Or is it simply fantasizing?
 
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