Chris Christie

Hawk said:
Unfortunately, neither the contemporary Republican party or any of the candidates they are touting for 2016 align much at all with my particular (peculiar) breed of conservatism.

Why do you think Jebby would make a mainstream conservative cringe, though?

Guy did everything right as Governor of Florida ... hits hard at some traditional Democratic strong-holds, especially their advantage with hispanic voters.

- Fortified stance on immigration.
- An education policy that's not half bad.
- Thought-worthy ideas on restructuring the economy.

Bush has spent the past 8 years sharpening his spears. If he wants to run, he'll be the nominee.
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He's not my guy, but I think he'd be viewed as Poppy Redux and I don't know if that would sell within the current Republican party. I don't hang with a lot of Republican grassroots workers, but I think Jeb might be too "forward" on immigration, education (where it would be my guess he'd support the Common Core, but I don't know that), and probably soft on the possibility of tax increases in a tax reform package. He's a center-right guy and I think the Republican party is in a part of the cycle where they are more right than center.
 
50PoundHead said:
He's a center-right guy and I think the Republican party is in a part of the cycle where they are more right than center.
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I think the party is blustering more right than they really are, at least right now. If you subscribe to the 'Pendulum Swing' theory, the country is already well on its way to a more right of center aligning after two terms with a decidedly left-leaning President.

IMO, 2016 will ultimately be decided on the basis of how the country views Obama's completed work; do we want somebody to continue running with the torch, or are we looking for a fixer? When it's all said and done (unless something goes hugely awry in the next few years, and I pray that it does not, for the sake of our nation) Obama will probably leave office with an approval rating a smidgen north of 50%. If the Republicans want to siphon away enough Democratic swing voters to win, then they need to choose a candidate who is capable of representing compromise while having his own unique set of policies/ideals. To me, Bush embodies that candidate from his demeanor to his agenda. He can be contrarian to Obama without being his opposite. I think he has enough Poppy in him to appeal to my parents (the waning, yet still lucrative component of the Republican electorate), but enough wild card (the Catholicism, Wifey) to have cross-appeal. And then just sprinkle a little Dubya charm on top.

I don't see this in Rand Paul. I don't see this in Chris Christie. Paul, especially, is a weak candidate to me -- he's too radical for 2016. Christie's best shot at snagging the nomination (at this point) is if Obama's approval ratings continue to stagnate and he can come out campaigning with guns ablaze. That, and if he can somehow escape the multiple ongoing fiascos in his state.

Oh, yeah, and I'd pick Romney as Bush's VP candidate.
 
Hawk said:
I think the party is blustering more right than they really are, at least right now. If you subscribe to the 'Pendulum Swing' theory, the country is already well on its way to a more right of center aligning after two terms with a decidedly left-leaning President.

IMO, 2016 will ultimately be decided on the basis of how the country views Obama's completed work; do we want somebody to continue running with the torch, or are we looking for a fixer? When it's all said and done (unless something goes hugely awry in the next few years, and I pray that it does not, for the sake of our nation) Obama will probably leave office with an approval rating a smidgen north of 50%. If the Republicans want to siphon away enough Democratic swing voters to win, then they need to choose a candidate who is capable of representing compromise while having his own unique set of policies/ideals. To me, Bush embodies that candidate from his demeanor to his agenda. He can be contrarian to Obama without being his opposite. I think he has enough Poppy in him to appeal to my parents (the waning, yet still lucrative component of the Republican electorate), but enough wild card (the Catholicism, Wifey) to have cross-appeal. And then just sprinkle a little Dubya charm on top.

I don't see this in Rand Paul. I don't see this in Chris Christie. Paul, especially, is a weak candidate to me -- he's too radical for 2016. Christie's best shot at snagging the nomination (at this point) is if Obama's approval ratings continue to stagnate and he can come out campaigning with guns ablaze. That, and if he can somehow escape the multiple ongoing fiascos in his state.

Oh, yeah, and I'd pick Romney as Bush's VP candidate.
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I guess conventional wisdom says that certain interests would insist on a rw firebreather or at least a garden variety holy joe as VP on a Bush ticket.

There's just something about Jeb—he looks enough like Vincent D'Onofrio's Full Metal Jacket character to creep me the **** out.

Sir, Leonard Lawrence, sir!
 
Hawk said:
I think the party is blustering more right than they really are, at least right now. If you subscribe to the 'Pendulum Swing' theory, the country is already well on its way to a more right of center aligning after two terms with a decidedly left-leaning President.

IMO, 2016 will ultimately be decided on the basis of how the country views Obama's completed work; do we want somebody to continue running with the torch, or are we looking for a fixer? When it's all said and done (unless something goes hugely awry in the next few years, and I pray that it does not, for the sake of our nation) Obama will probably leave office with an approval rating a smidgen north of 50%. If the Republicans want to siphon away enough Democratic swing voters to win, then they need to choose a candidate who is capable of representing compromise while having his own unique set of policies/ideals. To me, Bush embodies that candidate from his demeanor to his agenda. He can be contrarian to Obama without being his opposite. I think he has enough Poppy in him to appeal to my parents (the waning, yet still lucrative component of the Republican electorate), but enough wild card (the Catholicism, Wifey) to have cross-appeal. And then just sprinkle a little Dubya charm on top.

I don't see this in Rand Paul. I don't see this in Chris Christie. Paul, especially, is a weak candidate to me -- he's too radical for 2016. Christie's best shot at snagging the nomination (at this point) is if Obama's approval ratings continue to stagnate and he can come out campaigning with guns ablaze. That, and if he can somehow escape the multiple ongoing fiascos in his state.

Oh, yeah, and I'd pick Romney as Bush's VP candidate.
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I don't disagree with your synopsis. I've spent my life around this stuff and it will sort out over the long run for the Republicans. I just don't know the time frame. I agree that the US is (and has been) a center-right country from its inception that undergoes periodic center-left hiccups. For the life of me, I can't figure out how some folks think Obama is this far left guy. He's left-of-center, but I don't think he's driving along in the ditch like some seem to think.
 
I thought Jebb would have the best chances to beat Hillary months back but he will need one of a Latino, black or woman as his VP. GOP has to get away from always running old, white guys who people think are out of touch with young folks and minorities.

Balance Jebb with some young blood.
 
Krgrecw said:
I thought Jebb would have the best chances to beat Hillary months back but he will need one of a Latino, black or woman as his VP. GOP has to get away from always running old, white guys who people think are out of touch with young folks and minorities.

Balance Jebb with some young blood.
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Or, how about someone that advocates policies people vote for! If our (R) contingent would pay attention to the exit polls of the last election they'd see...
Last time (R) put forward a national candidate simply because they fit a certain demographic she wound up 2 years down the road babbling incoherently on Fox instead of getting morning national security briefings.
Man, just the thought boggles.

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Jeb's family is on the record that they don't want him running. And if he did, after the debacle that was the Romney candidacy and the way (R) read the results, he will never make it out of primaries. Suppose he does -- he will spend the next 3 months trying to separate himself from the Iraq War and the collapse of 2008.

As a (D) voter -- sure put your eggs in Jeb's basket. These past two weeks we've watched what is/was seemingly (R)'s only chance to the White House piss on his shoe.
Sorry guys, but that is what is out there
 
57Brave said:
Or, how about someone that advocates policies people vote for! If our (R) contingent would pay attention to the exit polls of the last election they'd see...
Last time (R) put forward a national candidate simply because they fit a certain demographic she wound up 2 years down the road babbling incoherently on Fox instead of getting morning national security briefings.
Man, just the thought boggles.

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Jeb's family is on the record that they don't want him running. And if he did, after the debacle that was the Romney candidacy and the way (R) read the results, he will never make it out of primaries. Suppose he does -- he will spend the next 3 months trying to separate himself from the Iraq War and the collapse of 2008.

As a (D) voter -- sure put your eggs in Jeb's basket. These past two weeks we've watched what is/was seemingly (R)'s only chance to the White House piss on his shoe.
Sorry guys, but that is what is out there
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GOP fund raisers love Jebb. Hes still very we'll liked in Florida. He'd win Florida. GOP needs to win Florida. He's the only one who has a shot to beat Hillary.
 
Krgrecw said:
GOP fund raisers love Jebb. Hes still very we'll liked in Florida. He'd win Florida. GOP needs to win Florida. He's the only one who has a shot to beat Hillary.
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Risk at losing North Carolina and Ohio. Republicans may be better off going to a libertarian candidate like Johnson. If the middle of the roaders would vote for him he could poach maybe a few from the other side.
 
Krgrecw said:
GOP fund raisers love Jebb. Hes still very we'll liked in Florida. He'd win Florida. GOP needs to win Florida. He's the only one who has a shot to beat Hillary.
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I don't know he could win the primary in Florida let alone a general election
 
The (R) base is far different than it was in 2007. High profile (R) still seems to think they lost those two elections because they weren't far enough to the right.
Policy wise where is Jeb different than McCain or Romney?

For instance, would Jeb stand by his previous position on Stand Your Ground? Or would he be looking at the general election - where to have even a prayer he would have to disavow.
Another reason is his family didn't appreciate Tallahassee over S Florida or the spotlight that went with Governorship -- I really dont think the fishbowl of DC would suit -- It's a long way off but I just don't see the path
 
57Brave said:
For instance, would Jeb stand by his previous position on Stand Your Ground? Or would he be looking at the general election - where to have even a prayer he would have to disavow. Another reason is his family didn't appreciate Tallahassee over S Florida or the spotlight that went with Governorship -- I really dont think the fishbowl of DC would suit -- It's a long way off but I just don't see the path
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All valid points. FWIW, Bush came out immediately (early March) and said that Stand Your Ground did not apply to the Martin case; "Stand your ground means stand your ground. It doesn’t mean chase after somebody who’s turned their back." Nevertheless, I think you are right in saying that his role in signing that law into practice would certainly be a (negative) issue receiving much play in a 2016 primary or general election.
 
It will be interesting to see how (R) primaries operate this time. I know they will not be using the same debate formats . Perhaps that will neuter the people that cheered someone dying or booing service people that disagreed with them. I really think that will play big the election cycle. Another for instance - Romney had to carry that baggage around the country with him in the general election. IF (R) can lower the tone of the primaries and avoid 47% talk it could get interesting.

But, there are too many Neo-Sessionists and Ted Cruz' and Rick Santorums. Should someone of gravitas stand up to them = sorta the way Bill Clinton did with Jesse Jackson in 92 ...
but this is a different time. If (R) did have a Clinton in the wings (like (D) did at that) time our instant information society would have already identified him and tied him the closing of the George Washington Bridge.

This is why the Christie screw up/kerfuffle is such a big deal. He was the on;ly member of the party to have the weight to stand up to the crazies.
I still think this is a coup
 
I still think Christie is electable. The young people like him, he has charisma, and is willing to take jokes from Jimmy Fallon.

Besides Christie or Jeb Bush, who is electable on a national scale?

Who do the Dems have? Hillary has baggage of her own, and I can't think of anyone else who will run against her.

The Iraq war, Benghazi, and Obamacare are far worse in my mind than a bridge scandal.
 
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