The Political Calculus

[nsacpi]

“If you can replicate his draw amongst rural, working-class voters without the insanity, you have a permanent governing majority,” said Josh Holmes, a top adviser to McConnell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...e4aea0-5289-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html

For anyone inclined to put a charitable gloss on the Republicans unwillingness to impeach and otherwise hold people responsible for the events of January 6, Mr. Holmes has laid it out.

Impeachment is tied up to a political calculation. The Democrats want to make make Republicans go on the record. Do they stand with the big lie and the base that has come to believe so fervently in it? Or do they alienate the base by acknowledging the truth and holding those who perpetrated an attack on democracy to account? It is a tough choice from a political perspective. But not from an ethical one. Of course we know which way most politicians will go in that kind of situation.

However, I would also make an observation to my old party. You may think after very poorly chosen one is out of office that passions will cool and that you can pivot back to respectability and respect for the rule of law and all that jazz. But every day you wait is going to make this pivot back to respectability more difficult. Seize this opportunity to do so. Impeach very poorly chosen one. Expel Hawley from your caucus. Be bold. Do the right thing. If you don't the ranks of the Hawleys and Marjorie Taylor Greenes will just keep growing. It is later in the day than you realize.

 

[Jaw]

I would agree with you, but big tech not even waiting until Biden is sworn in to invoke 1984 changed everything. I've never seen the kind of white hot anger I'm seeing from normally level headed people. People who previously just shook their heads at the stolen election claims are reconsidering it now that the masks and gloves are coming off. The left has dangerously overplayed their control before they even started. I hope the only consequences are political.

 

[nsacpi]

From the aforementioned Josh Holmes, former chief of staff to McConnell. Josh is as partisan a Republican as any. But his perspective on this is changing as more information is coming in. I think this is the last chance for the Republicans to save their party. I hope they find a way to do so. You either double down on the big lie or confront it. If the party makes the former choice it will be a disaster for the party and country.

[tw]1348338328232464384[/tw]

 

[sturg33]

I would agree with you, but big tech not even waiting until Biden is sworn in to invoke 1984 changed everything. I've never seen the kind of white hot anger I'm seeing from normally level headed people. People who previously just shook their heads at the stolen election claims are reconsidering it now that the masks and gloves are coming off. The left has dangerously overplayed their control before they even started. I hope the only consequences are political.

Agreed. There was a lot of agreement from the right that Wednesday crossed a line.

Now the attention is very much on how big tech has decided to put their boot on conservatives. There will be blowback. Its pretty predictable and was very avoidable

 

[nsacpi]

[tw]1348395275027668992[/tw]

Most of the party leadership is probably going to take this path. It's a shame. But I understand the calculation.

 

[nsacpi]

[tw]1348277056509980676[/tw]

It seems to me it is the Republicans who are passing up an opportunity to clean up their party. But as I said in the prior post I understand the calculation.

They're probably willing to let some members like Murkowski cross the aisle in favor of keeping the base stoked.

I don't think they fully understand though that the choice is either doubling down on the big lie or confronting it. They're probably hoping to fudge things a bit and kick the can down the road. Good luck with that.

Btw I think Rubio and Elise Stefanik are great political talents. I appreciate their policy chops. And in another environment they would be among my political favorites. Which makes my sense of disappointment in them all the more acute. I am glad, however, to have left this ****show of a political party four years ago. It is a great relief not to have any association with it.

 

[sturg33]

Personally I think the winning calculus is to oppose lockdowns, mask mandates, and oppression of free speech. Most in the GOP are too weak to do it

The left sides with each of those things aggressively. They are ALWAYS on the side of authoritarianism

 

[nsacpi]

[tw]1347922943649730561[/tw]

A Republican member of Congress. Not one that I have any particular admiration for. But this tweet illustrates my point. You either double down on the big lie or confront it. It is an unavoidable choice. It may already be too late. But the longer the party leadership avoids confronting the big lie the more difficult it will be to save the party.

 

[Jaw]

[tw]1347922943649730561[/tw]

A Republican member of Congress. Not one that I have any particular admiration for. But this tweet illustrates my point. You either double down on the big lie or confront it. It is an unavoidable choice. It may already be too late. But the longer the party leadership avoids confronting the big lie the more difficult it will be to save the party.

Every word of that tweet is true.

As for Rubio and Stefanik, I think Marco has hit his ceiling and will reside there for a long time. Stefanik is repeatedly a refreshing voice of sanity in her party. I suspect that means she's hit her ceiling as well, and I have less faith she'll be able to stay there for long without bending the knee.

 

[sturg33]

She's correct of course.

I know you want everyone to fall in line as their rights get stripped away. All authoritarian do

 

[nsacpi]

Every word of that tweet is true.

As for Rubio and Stefanik, I think Marco has hit his ceiling and will reside there for a long time. Stefanik is repeatedly a refreshing voice of sanity in her party. I suspect that means she's hit her ceiling as well, and I have less faith she'll be able to stay there for long without bending the knee.

If you think this is true you have an idiosyncratic understanding of what it means to gaslight.

You should think about what I'm saying. The party is on a very bad path. Probably too late to turn around. It is a shame because a healthy Republican Party would help to check excesses from the Democrats. As things stand the faction represented by Hawley, Greene and Boebert already have the upper hand. Certainly in the House. The Senate is the remaining bastion of semi-respectability.

I think Murkowski is going to walk. And maybe some House members. Quality people. But I understand the calculation being made. I don't agree with it. But it is being made.

Don't let the Democrats and Big Tech "gaslight" you into being stupid.

 

[Tapate50]

[tw]1348395275027668992[/tw]

Most of the party leadership is probably going to take this path. It's a shame. But I understand the calculation.

I think your initial position was not to rile anyone up and just castrate the pres from decision making and just let him
ride it out in hiding?

That changed or no?

 

[nsacpi]

I think your initial position was not to rile anyone up and just castrate the pres from decision making and just let him
ride it out in hiding?

That changed or no?

I'm giving advice to my old party in this thread.

This is what I think they should do.

But I don't expect to take my advice. I think I've made that clear here. So being a realist, I'm in favor of a chemically induced coma until he leaves office.

 

[Tapate50]

 

[mqt]

“If you can replicate his draw amongst rural, working-class voters without the insanity, you have a permanent governing majority,” said Josh Holmes, a top adviser to McConnell.

I know this wasn’t the actual point, but I disagree. At some point, someone is going to figure out a way to mobilize people in both rural and urban areas and that would be the path forward. Given that a lot of the societal problems we have are pretty universal, I’m surprised it hasn’t already happened.

 

[nsacpi]

I know this wasn’t the actual point, but I disagree. At some point, someone is going to figure out a way to mobilize people in both rural and urban areas and that would be the path forward. Given that a lot of the societal problems we have are pretty universal, I’m surprised it hasn’t already happened.

From where I sit in my ivory tower, the path forward seems obvious. We've let too many parts of our economy become uncompetitive. Public services are dominated by stakeholders. The answer is more competition and reforms that reduce the power of stakeholders. Rinse and repeat across all corners of the economy. The hard part is there are many entrenched interests that don't want more competition or reductions in their power. To overcome that you need very strong-willed, persistent leadership and vision. It is not a project for people with short attention spans.

 

[Carp]

Every word of that tweet is true.

As for Rubio and Stefanik, I think Marco has hit his ceiling and will reside there for a long time. Stefanik is repeatedly a refreshing voice of sanity in her party. I suspect that means she's hit her ceiling as well, and I have less faith she'll be able to stay there for long without bending the knee.

No one is banning the POTUS from speaking to his people. He can speak to the American people anytime he wants to. He has never once needed Twitter to speak to the American people. In fact, most Americans polled believe he spends too much time on Twitter. Twitter is his crutch so he can say and post things his aides would typically advise him to refrain from saying in a speech because he looks like even more of an idiot when he says it out loud.

Now this impeachment absolutely is a sham with less than 10 days left in his presidency, which is ironic because there's arguably more evidence he actually did commit a crime this time than he did on that phone call with Ukraine. If you're serious about bringing him up on charges, you can still do so after he has left office. I do think Trump had this coming for his unethical behavior which encouraged to the seize on the Capitol. But again, it's less than 10 days until he is out for good. Unfortunatly, it's the American people who have to suffer because of this.

I gotta give it to Trump, he's very astute in the way he illegally asks people to do his bidding. He uses just enough implied verbiage to get his point across while simultaneously being able to say that he never actually sad that.

 

[nsacpi]

No one is banning the POTUS from speaking to his people. He can speak to the American people anytime he wants to. He has never once needed Twitter to speak to the American people. In fact, most Americans would agree he spends too much time on Twitter. Twitter is his crutch so he can say and post things his aides would typically advise him to refrain from saying in a speech because he looks like even more of an idiot when he says out loud.

Now this impeachment absolutely is a sham with less than 10 days left in his presidency, which is ironic because there's arguably more evidence he did commit a crime here than he did on that . If you're serious about bringing him up on crimes, you can still do so after he has left office. But Trump had this coming. What's unfortunate is that it's the American people who have to suffer because of this.

I gotta give it to Trump, he's very astute in the way he illegally asks people to do his bidding. He uses just enough implied verbiage to get his point across while simultaneously being able to say that he never actually sad that.

It's a travesty that the ordinary people who took their marching orders from him should pay the price while he and other politicians who pushed the big lie walk away from the crime scene as if they had nothing to do with it.

 

[Carp]

It's a travesty that the ordinary people who took their marching orders from him should pay the price while he and other politicians who pushed the big lie walk away from the crime scene as if they had nothing to do with it.

I agree, but the damage has been done to the reps who supported the seditious acts. Voters will not forget where they stood and their political opponents will make sure of that. As for Trump, if he committed a crime he can still be charged after he leaves office.

 

[Carp]

I don't see the point in this impeachment unless you're trying to force Republican reps to cave into public pressure, thereby losing the support of many of their constituents, or forcing them to make a stand against the impeachment and risk being seen publicly as compliant with Trump's behavior. Apparently, lawmakers aren't allowed to have the same viewpoints that this impeachment is both pointless and Trump also acted unethically and possibly criminally.