FG 2021 Playoff Odds

[Enscheff]

FG just posted their projections for 2021 playoff odds: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

As discussed in the PECOTA thread, they have the Braves sitting about 1-2 games behind the Mets. With $10M+ left to spend, and several quality FAs still available, it is entirely possible the Braves make up that ground with a few signings before ST. Adding 1-2 BP arms and 1-2 bench bats could close that gap, and I expect AA to do just that.

Another thing to note is the WS odds they calculate. Notice the absolute best teams (Yankees and Dodgers) are pegged with a roughly 18% probability of winning the WS. These are teams with payrolls in the stratosphere and are clearing "going for it"...and they still have less than a 1 in 5 chance of winning a championship.

Folks in the moronic "go all in to win because flags fly forever" cult would do well to realize that "going all in", or "pushing your chips to the middle" doesn't come close to guaranteeing anything as far as winning goes. The only thing it does guarantee for a mid-market team like the Braves are several lean rebuilding years after a few seasons of enjoying a 10%-15% chance of winning the WS (see the Padres for the next example).

 

[thewupk]

They have the 4 best teams in the NL as the Dodgers, Padres, Mets, and Braves. As of now I would say that's probably accurate. I see the wild cards coming out of those two divisions.

 

[Nerfherders]

Baseball is definitely the hardest sport to build for. It's relatively easy to build for making the playoffs, but MLB playoffs are the biggest crapshoot of any sport. That 18% is essentially the odds AFTER you've made the playoffs.

That both #1 seeds made the WS last year is actually an anomaly. It almost never happens.

 

[Super]

Folks in the moronic "go all in to win because flags fly forever" cult would do well to realize that "going all in", or "pushing your chips to the middle" doesn't come close to guaranteeing anything as far as winning goes. The only thing it does guarantee for a mid-market team like the Braves are several lean rebuilding years after a few seasons of enjoying a 10%-15% chance of winning the WS (see the Padres for the next example).

it's all numbers, numbers, numbers. FG is wrong. based on zero numbers and my feelings, the Braves "going for it" would make their chances 30+%.

 

[Enscheff]

it's all numbers, numbers, numbers. FG is wrong. based on zero numbers and my feelings, the Braves "going for it" would make their chances 30+%.

This is actually a very nuanced topic, and FG explains why in this same article:

"We run the season 10,000 times, as I mentioned, but that’s only to determine the outcome of each game; the underlying talent is the same in each simulation. In other words, the Yankees are a true-talent .595 team every single time — they just get lucky or unlucky sometimes.

In real life, that’s not how things work at all. Players get injured or don’t. Prospects pop, and veterans sometimes unexpectedly decline. The Rays, for example, have about seven pitchers with a chance at being excellent this year. If one of them absolutely shoves, he’ll ascend toward the top of their rotation, and in that universe, their pitching will look better. We’re looking at an average outcome for each player, but that’s not how things will actually work in real life. Some players will get better, and some will get worse."

These projections simulate luck in terms of when teams score runs and how those runs will translate to wins. For example, if a team scores 25 runs in 5 games, sometimes they will get lucky enough to score 5 per game and win 4 of those games, while other times they will get unlucky and score 10 runs in 2 games and win only 2 of those games.

What they can't do is simulate injuries, or real talent increases.

For example, if a starter on a deep team get hurt, but has a very good replacement on the bench, they won't suffer nearly as badly in real life as a team with Johan Camargo as the primary backup. Quality MLB depth is something these projections do a poor job taking into account.

Another example, like they mentioned with the Rays, is if someone makes a real jump in true talent. What if Riley shortened his swing, and suddenly he doesn't have to be a guess hitter anymore? Or what if Pache improves in leaps and bounds like we saw with Acuna and becomes peak Ender by June? These projections have no way to account for the fact that some teams are built with higher upside guys than other teams.

 

[salmagundy]

FG has now added ups and downs projections for '21.

Freddie(-4.5), Ozuna(3.3) and Danby(3.1) combined to loser 10.9 in WAR and no Brave is listed to gain WAR in their short lists.

No Braves pitchers went up or down on the short lists.