2021 BA Top 100

[TheBravos]

Well, yeah, not surprising that Ender has been worthless the last two years (0.0 WAR) but what I find at least somewhat intriguing is that he was worth a stout 18.3 WAR the five years before that. That's 3.6 per.

It's easy to dismiss him, and we probably should, but it's unusual that a guy loses demonstrated ability to hit, catch and run at age 28, isn't it?

Injuries. Ender performed above what he should have done, but now has performed well below his capabilities.

Knowing this is basically the last year of his deal (no one would pick his option up), it wouldn’t surprise me that he comes out blazing hot and Pache struggles a tad to begin the year. I’ll enjoy the board blowing up if he starts over Pache the first part of the season. Especially if they can mess with Pache’s service time. He is of course....only delaying the inevitable.

 

[thewupk]

Injuries. Ender performed above what he should have done, but now has performed well below his capabilities.

Knowing this is basically the last year of his deal (no one would pick his option up), it wouldn’t surprise me that he comes out blazing hot and Pache struggles a tad to begin the year. I’ll enjoy the board blowing up if he starts over Pache the first part of the season. Especially if they can mess with Pache’s service time. He is of course....only delaying the inevitable.

With the service time that Pache already has this isn't even worth doing. He would need to stay down past the all-star break to push arbitration another year and all the way to August to gain another year of service.

I expect Ender to get a fair shot because a healthy Ender has proved to be a good player and we are paying him regardless. But if it's clear he has nothing left it will be Pache's job.

 

[Southcack77]

It would be great to get a dead cat bounce out of Inciarte over a small sample to help get the team to the deadline.

 

[Slippyjms]

With the service time that Pache already has this isn't even worth doing. He would need to stay down past the all-star break to push arbitration another year and all the way to August to gain another year of service.

I expect Ender to get a fair shot because a healthy Ender has proved to be a good player and we are paying him regardless. But if it's clear he has nothing left it will be Pache's job.

That doesn’t seem right. Pache was only up for a few days last year. Ender would only need to buy Pache like a month to push back his clock.

 

[thewupk]

That doesn’t seem right. Pache was only up for a few days last year. Ender would only need to buy Pache like a month to push back his clock.

That's what I get for replying when I first wake up. But Pache has 22 days of service time when due to it being prorated last year. So he would need to stay down till the end of May or so. And after the ASB if you are trying to game his arbitration. I don't see him staying down that long.

 

[chop2chip]

That's what I get for replying when I first wake up. But Pache has 22 days of service time when due to it being prorated last year. So he would need to stay down till the end of May or so. And after the ASB if you are trying to game his arbitration. I don't see him staying down that long.

It’s in the zone where it’s defensible to breaking camp with him as the CF or giving Ender 2 months to prove himself.

It would be nice if we could just get an extension done this spring and not worry about it one way or the other.

 

[thewupk]

It’s in the zone where it’s defensible to breaking camp with him as the CF or giving Ender 2 months to prove himself.

It would be nice if we could just get an extension done this spring and not worry about it one way or the other.

It seems simplistic. But we should get a rough idea of how Ender will perform based on his sprint speed. When his back was hurting in the first half of 2019 his defense and offense suffered. And his spring speed was down and he was noticeably slower. He was healthier in the 2nd half and all the metrics jumped up.

I still believe a 100% healthy Ender can be a ~2 WAR player. I just don't know if he can still get to that point. But I would give him some time for the team to figure that out. If it becomes clear he's not then I would bring in Pache right away regardless of service time issues.

 

[Southcack77]

It seems simplistic. But we should get a rough idea of how Ender will perform based on his sprint speed. When his back was hurting in the first half of 2019 his defense and offense suffered. And his spring speed was down and he was noticeably slower. He was healthier in the 2nd half and all the metrics jumped up.

I still believe a 100% healthy Ender can be a ~2 WAR player. I just don't know if he can still get to that point. But I would give him some time for the team to figure that out. If it becomes clear he's not then I would bring in Pache right away regardless of service time issues.

After recovering from being "hurt" he was abysmal in 2020.

Even if we ignore that 2019 and 2020 ever happened, his baseline of 2018 is a below average hitter that was paying his bills by absolutely maxing out his relatively limited talent set on defense. He's never been fast, so even losing a half step is pretty devastating. And we're at the place on the age curve where that should be expected. And it seems like that is what played out defensively in 2020.

He's owed money and the rest of the bench at this point sucks too, so I assume he's going to get his chance to show he's not toast in the spring. Hope he can put up decent defense and make enough contact to bring luck into play if that's what we are looking at.

But we're well past the point where anyone can seriously suggest he can be counted on for 2-3 wins.

 

[jpx7]

That's what I get for replying when I first wake up. But Pache has 22 days of service time when due to it being prorated last year. So he would need to stay down till the end of May or so. And after the ASB if you are trying to game his arbitration. I don't see him staying down that long.

If Inciarte looks at all playable in ST, I could totally see them holding off Pache the first two months of the season, especially considering the lack of actual AAA time last year.

That may or may not be the best move for the 2021 team—and I think your point re sprint-speed is apt—but it's nevertheless a plausible eventuality, given epi-performance factors.

 

[Enscheff]

The Braves are paying $8M for Inciarte no matter what. So the options are to get nothing for that $8M, or use that $8M to help push Pache’s clock back a year and see if Ender can bounce back enough to be a viable bench piece.

I’m guessing the Braves will be able to collect enough statcast data in ST to make that determination, and that data will either make or break Pache’s chances of being on the opening day roster. Pache is a good prospect, but he isn’t so good that it’s worth running the ghost of Ender Inciarte out in CF for a month to gain a year of control.

If Ender is toast Pache needs to be the guy in CF on opening day. If Ender looks passable (meaning average defense in CF and a slightly below average bat) in ST Pache should start the year in AAA.

 

[Super]

After recovering from being "hurt" he was abysmal in 2020.

Even if we ignore that 2019 and 2020 ever happened, his baseline of 2018 is a below average hitter that was paying his bills by absolutely maxing out his relatively limited talent set on defense. He's never been fast, so even losing a half step is pretty devastating. And we're at the place on the age curve where that should be expected. And it seems like that is what played out defensively in 2020.

He's owed money and the rest of the bench at this point sucks too, so I assume he's going to get his chance to show he's not toast in the spring. Hope he can put up decent defense and make enough contact to bring luck into play if that's what we are looking at.

But we're well past the point where anyone can seriously suggest he can be counted on for 2-3 wins.

dude he put up 2.9 WAR in 2018 and 0.9 in 2019 in 65 games. his 2020 was rough but you just go too far in completely writing him off.
absolutely zero people are suggesting he can be "counted on" for 2-3 wins. maybe it's semantics to you, but it is however far from impossible that he's capable of putting up ~2 WAR and for a couple of reasons it's worth it for the Braves to give him another look. i think that sentence is the largest amount of support you'll see for Ender, and it's really not much.

 

[clvclv]

The Braves are paying $8M for Inciarte no matter what. So the options are to get nothing for that $8M, or use that $8M to help push Pache’s clock back a year and see if Ender can bounce back enough to be a viable bench piece.

I’m guessing the Braves will be able to collect enough statcast data in ST to make that determination, and that data will either make or break Pache’s chances of being on the opening day roster. Pache is a good prospect, but he isn’t so good that it’s worth running the ghost of Ender Inciarte out in CF for a month to gain a year of control.

If Ender is toast Pache needs to be the guy in CF on opening day. If Ender looks passable (meaning average defense in CF and a slightly below average bat) in ST Pache should start the year in AAA.

My guess is they may even take it a step further, plus there's still a chance that someone is signed (Reddick maybe?) that can hold down RF so Acuna can platoon in CF for a few weeks. Given how much time they've allowed Snitker to play his favorites in the past to prove that they're right and he's wrong, I'd imagine they might even see how the team - as a whole - is playing early on. If the team gets off to a hot start and Ender's playing well enough to be in there against RHPs, maybe they try to get the service-time back - if he's not doing anything to help at all and the team's not able to overcome it, they'll make the move regardless of what Pache's clock says.

 

[50PoundHead]

On the plus side, that was a really fun draft. I expect it to hold interest for several more years as well.

I think it was a very promising draft. I think they went the direction they did because they couldn't spend money in the international market.

 

[Enscheff]

My guess is they may even take it a step further, plus there's still a chance that someone is signed (Reddick maybe?) that can hold down RF so Acuna can platoon in CF for a few weeks. Given how much time they've allowed Snitker to play his favorites in the past to prove that they're right and he's wrong, I'd imagine they might even see how the team - as a whole - is playing early on. If the team gets off to a hot start and Ender's playing well enough to be in there against RHPs, maybe they try to get the service-time back - if he's not doing anything to help at all and the team's not able to overcome it, they'll make the move regardless of what Pache's clock says.

I think it’s a given that Ender should see as close to 0 PAs vs LHP as possible.

 

[Southcack77]

dude he put up 2.9 WAR in 2018 and 0.9 in 2019 in 65 games. his 2020 was rough but you just go too far in completely writing him off.
absolutely zero people are suggesting he can be "counted on" for 2-3 wins. maybe it's semantics to you, but it is however far from impossible that he's capable of putting up ~2 WAR and for a couple of reasons it's worth it for the Braves to give him another look. i think that sentence is the largest amount of support you'll see for Ender, and it's really not much.

Did I not say that I hope he has a dead cat bounce for a month or so that helps the Braves get to the deadline?

I'm just not going to put a pretty bow on it and pretend its going to be all right.

He ceased being an desirable player to me when he was no longer able to be an average hitter vs RHP, which was 2017. The Braves would be better off with Acuna in CF and any number of players in the corner than they are with Inciarte, but his ridiculous extension prevented that from happening. It's going to be costly to a contending club that doesn't necessarily have a wild card out. That's unfortunate. So we'll pray for a little bit of luck.

So yeah they owe him too much money to cut him and too much money to give him away and too much money to acquire better options apparently so we'll just have to hope he's lucky.

 

[mqt]

Not subscribed to The Athletic, but I see Law has Pache as the number 3 overall prospect. That’s pretty promising.

 

[Super]

I'm just not going to put a pretty bow on it and pretend its going to be all right.

lol what? who is "putting a bow" on anything? the fact is, Ender could very reasonably rebound to ~2 WAR. again, it's way more possible than you seem to think. if he does, that's pretty good! i'll be happy.

He ceased being an desirable player to me when he was no longer able to be an average hitter vs RHP, which was 2017. The Braves would be better off with Acuna in CF and any number of players in the corner than they are with Inciarte, but his ridiculous extension prevented that from happening. It's going to be costly to a contending club that doesn't necessarily have a wild card out. That's unfortunate. So we'll pray for a little bit of luck.

So yeah they owe him too much money to cut him and too much money to give him away and too much money to acquire better options apparently so we'll just have to hope he's lucky.

did Ender bang your wife or something?
it's pretty dumb he ceased being "desirable" to you in 2017 considering he put up the exact same WAR in 2018 that he did in 2017. does, like, baserunning mean nothing to you? defense? he was a positive player in 2019 despite his bad first half. we're literally talking about 1 year where he wasn't objectively a positive player.

the extension was hardly "ridiculous" but your hyperbole wrt Ender doesn't take a break. it was a sensible extension that's probably worked out the same as a non-extension would have (unless you think the Braves would've parted ways with him after 2018 (no) or 2019 (nope)). so they're on the hook for just this year, and he's as reasonable a candidate to put 2-WAR as any guy you're going to get for the same dollars.
please list all of these players Atlanta would definitely be better off with that would've been easy to acquire. i'm honestly dying to know. you're going to say some dumb **** like jay bruce lol.

i think you more desperately want to be "right" about Ender and it's making you completely irrational.

 

[Southcack77]

lol what? who is "putting a bow" on anything? the fact is, Ender could very reasonably rebound to ~2 WAR. again, it's way more possible than you seem to think. if he does, that's pretty good! i'll be happy.



did Ender bang your wife or something?
it's pretty dumb he ceased being "desirable" to you in 2017 considering he put up the exact same WAR in 2018 that he did in 2017. does, like, baserunning mean nothing to you? defense? he was a positive player in 2019 despite his bad first half. we're literally talking about 1 year where he wasn't objectively a positive player.

the extension was hardly "ridiculous" but your hyperbole wrt Ender doesn't take a break. it was a sensible extension that's probably worked out the same as a non-extension would have (unless you think the Braves would've parted ways with him after 2018 (no) or 2019 (nope)). so they're on the hook for just this year, and he's as reasonable a candidate to put 2-WAR as any guy you're going to get for the same dollars.
please list all of these players Atlanta would definitely be better off with that would've been easy to acquire. i'm honestly dying to know. you're going to say some dumb **** like jay bruce lol.

i think you more desperately want to be "right" about Ender and it's making you completely irrational.

There is no "wanting" to be right about Ender about it.

I was right.

There is is not a single soul who wouldn't trade him for a bag of poo if the Braves could shed his salary.

His PT should be limited to being a defensive replacement and then only if he's recovered from the brain damage he appeared to have suffered last season. Ideally, your defensive replacement only OF should cost more like the league minimum than 8m dollars but no sense worrying about that.

 

[Southcack77]

lol what? who is "putting a bow" on anything? the fact is, Ender could very reasonably rebound to ~2 WAR. again, it's way more possible than you seem to think. if he does, that's pretty good! i'll be happy.

and he's as reasonable a candidate to put 2-WAR as any guy you're going to get for the same dollars.
please list all of these players Atlanta would definitely be better off with that would've been easy to acquire. i'm honestly dying to know. you're going to say some dumb **** like jay bruce lol.

i think you more desperately want to be "right" about Ender and it's making you completely irrational.

I understand that right now Inciarte is probably about as good as we are going to get. It's a ****ty situation that some people feel the need to put rainbow stickers on. I don't. If that bothers you, I'm sorry. He's not a good player any more. He shouldn't get on the field except as a defensive replacement and it's not even clear whether he is still particularly good at defense. We'll see. Well I hope we won't, but we almost certainly will.


......But it almost sounded for a minute like you were asking me to what better use I could have put Ender Inciarte's 8m dollar salary to for a second there. That couldn't possibly have been what you were asking, so I'll just move on.

 

[Super]

There is no "wanting" to be right about Ender about it.

I was right.

There is is not a single soul who wouldn't trade him for a bag of poo if the Braves could shed his salary.

His PT should be limited to being a defensive replacement and then only if he's recovered from the brain damage he appeared to have suffered last season. Ideally, your defensive replacement only OF should cost more like the league minimum than 8m dollars but no sense worrying about that.

lol, no, you were not right. not by any stretch.
you literally said a 2.9 WAR player making like $10M wasn't "desirable" to you. that's just incredibly, objectively dumb. that's a valuable player. it's the height of irrationality.
the Braves have plenty of reason to think he can rebound after *one* down (short) year. i'm glad they aren't as hard-headed and short-sighted as you are. they would've dropped a 2.9 WAR player for no reason!