Are you always an asshole or just today?
Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
Are you always an asshole or just today?
Mad Dog Murph
Well-known member
Only on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. I’m a delight the other 4 days.
Smyly quite easily. The sum of the parts isn't equal to the whole. Getting 2-3 WAR from 1 position is much better than getting 2-3 WAR from multiple positions added together.
Sure if you have budgets like the big market clubs that can afford it But when you have a much smaller budget, I would think getting as much potential bang for each dollar spent would be a primary goal. Fangraphs pegs Smyly for 1.3 WAR while the four I mentioned are pegged at an aggregate 1.9 WAR. Obviously these are only predictions, but that's all we have to go on at this point. Based on that, I'd think it's at least debatable which would be the better choice.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Besides the other counterpoints presented, this post pre-supposes Gardner was ever going to leave the Yankees (or, at least, would’ve done so at the price he agreed to from the Yankees). I don’t think that presupposition is true.
I just used those four guys that together will make the same as Smyly as an example. The point was could the Smyly money have been better spent strengthening other areas of the team. If we had enough to pay Smyly 11 and 11 on the bench/pen like the big market teams, then heck yes the Smyly deal would be good. However, that deal has now caused us to miss out on just about everyone else we've tried to get (as has been reported) other than minor league deals and waiver claims.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Then aren’t they performing like 1st round picks?
ramadon101
Danville Rookie
Reports say Braves made 2 year back loaded contract offer to Trevor Rosenthal- curious that it was back loaded. Same mlbTR write up mentions Braves were also pursuing Gardner but he ultimately wanted to rejoin the Yankees, as expected. Wondering whether we back loaded Rosenthal’s offer because AA needed more to play with for the bench and to round out the pen or if we are truly at the max budget right now (sans a few bucks for mid season trades)
Martin comes off the books next winter so they'd just be transferring his money to his replacement in Rosenthal. Rosenthal's deal with Oakland is $3 million this year with $8 million deferred ($3 million paid in January of 2022 and $5 million in January of 2023). If there's only around $5 million left for this year (until the deadline) and AA offered him 2 years/$13 million with only $3 million on the books for this season that $3 million is really the only payroll he'd be "adding" since you could just give him what you're paying Martin, Jackson, and Dayton this season in the second year. Dayton's easily replaceable with Newk, Davidson, or Muller and Jackson's easily replaceable with Touki or Wilson.
Obviously Rosenthal preferred the chance to go back out on the market next winter, but AA offering something structured like that would've made sense since he'd be getting his money earlier.
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Again, that isn't true. It isn't Smyly vs them. It's that group vs Smyly, Kipnis, Lamb, Ervin, and whatever pen arms we use from the group of pitchers we already have. I feel pretty confident that group definitely surpasses yours.
Who do you suppose we replace Smyly with in your scenario? Because Wilson/Wright, etc aren't likely to be very good again this year. So your 1.9 WAR is likely lower when you replace Smyly with Wilsin/Wright who could easily be negative value pitchers as a starter.
Pitching was always more important than those other areas. So please can we stop this silly argument now?
a potentially very good pitcher is a more worthwhile gamble than signing slightly better bench pieces. this really is not complicated for anyone but you.
Well one thing has been made crystal clear to me. Stating an opinion gets ridiculed with demeaning remarks by certain posters on this forum. I would have thought the adult response would simply be to disagree and state your opposing view which a few have done. Others, well I guess it makes them feel better to be demeaning. Have a wonderful day.
a bunch of people are telling you that 4 players, who make $11M, who together give you 2.5 WAR, is not as valuable as getting that 2.5 WAR from one player making $11M.
the Smyly money was not better spent signing slightly better fringe pieces instead of a potential legitimate difference maker in the rotation.
and as someone else pointed out, the logic of your post isn't even good. it is not Smyly vs those 4 bench pieces, it's Smyly plus the guys signed to be the bench/pen pieces vs. those bench/pen pieces.
It could certainly turn out that Smyly is another Hamels and we waste money that could have been better spent elsewhere. But the same argument can be made about Morton or any other pitcher that we theoretically could have signed but didn't.
The fact of the matter is, we had 2 rotation spots we absolutely had to fill and AA filled those spots with 2 high quality pitchers. I just don't see any way in which that can be construed as a mistake, regardless how those 2 guys perform.
The fact of the matter is, we had 2 rotation spots we absolutely had to fill and AA filled those spots with 2 high quality pitchers. I just don't see any way in which that can be construed as a mistake, regardless how those 2 guys perform.
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Smyly for me - and it's not really close.
The projections you reference are nice, but it's probably best to take a step back, put your scouting goggles (rather than analytics bifocals) on and ask yourself exactly how much you expect older players to reach their projections. Melancon turns 35 next month, Cabrera's already 35, and Gardner turns 38 in August. There's simply a much greater chance those guys get injured and/or see their production fall off a cliff at their ages.
Smyly will be 32 in June and has the upside of a #2 SP when he's on while the 4 guys you talk about are bit players at best. As Enscheff keeps pointing out, if you can keep Morton and Smyly healthy and fresh when October rolls around you've got a rotation full of guys who are legitimately capable of shutting contenders' offenses down.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think the better way to ask what skillet was saying is do we think wright/wilson and/or others are good enough to minimize the impact of Drew so that we could have used his 11 million elsewhere. Could we have snagged a cheaper starter as insurance and used the other 8-9 million in savings to add bullpen depth or better bench guys and trust the flashes that wilson and Wright showed at times.
I think that is a fair question. One that could be more debatable
I think that is a fair question. One that could be more debatable
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Thank you Matt, yes perhaps that was a better way of writing was I was trying to say/ask. I will admit that many make a good point about Smyly and I certainly understand that view.
i'm definitely in the boat that the rotation needed serious upgrading and not just in one spot, and i think AA got two of the better-bet starters available. i think going into the year with Wright or Wilson as your set #5 would be a failure, and i strongly prefer say $11M for Smyly than someone like Lester for $5M. i think with someone like Lester, while he'll give you innings, you know what you're going to get: an aging, clearly declining pitcher who's hovering around replacement level. with Smyly, i think there's still some upside based on his metrics last year. he gives your rotation the chance to be very good, especially for shorter stints in the playoffs.
as i said, i think it was/still is fair to question the Smyly signing, especially considering the timing. as more deals have come in, it looks more and more logical. and i'm certainly not upset about it because it may have prevented AA from signing Asdrubal Cabrera and instead forced him to sign Kipnis, or that Melancon signed elsewhere because of it. i think you can replace someone like Melancon for a fraction of his price. i'd rather take a gamble on a potentially big piece than worry about the edges of the roster. as important as i think strong depth is, i don't think Cabrera is some big get while Kipnis is garbage. i just don't think they'll be functionally THAT different.
I agree with your point about Smylys potential upside. He did seem to find "another gear" last year that is definitely promising.