Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

bravesfanMatt said:
Wait we have only signed 4 major league contracts thus far. We know how you feel about Drew so that leaves a big gap on how good #3 really is.
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Well...

Both guys are injury plagued and can be expected to post 2-3 wins if healthy. Smyly cost $11M, while Lamb cost $1M non-guaranteed. The Braves seem to have based the entire signing on a 26 inning sample pitched in SF that appears to be complete outlier from the rest of his career.

It goes (grades based on the benefit of perfect hindsight):

1. Morton (A) This is the guy I wanted. An A+ would have been calling his bluff and getting him for something like $12M.
2. Ozuna (B+) He is an acceptable answer for "impact RHH". An A+ would have been holding out on him and getting him for 2 years.
3. Lamb (B) A decent caddy for Riley. An A+ would have been a less risky player for something like $3M.
4. Kipnis (C) A generic declining MLB player for the bench. An A+ would have been a better player for something like $3M.
5. Smyly (C-) An expensive lottery ticket due to injuries. The moment this deal was signed I was worried it would limit future spending.

I would like to see a RHP added to the BP that I can grade above average. Something like Greene for $2M would be an A. For comparison, I never liked the Will Smith signing and would hang a C- or worse on it...probably a D actually.

I also think AA is still being too conservative with trading prospects, and some of these holes could have been better filled with that strategy. I feel like AA does a poor job at selling high on guys like Newk, Wright, Camargo, Riley, and now Waters, and only trades guys once they have a value of essentially zero. His risk tolerance for trading prospects is too low, and is even lower than his risk tolerance for FA contracts (which I think is almost perfect for a mid-market team). However, that opinion is based on my ignorance of what he could have gotten for those assets, and there's no way to prove either side.
 
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Enscheff said:
Well...

Both guys are injury plagued and can be expected to post 2-3 wins if healthy. Smyly cost $11M, while Lamb cost $1M non-guaranteed. The Braves seem to have based the entire signing on a 26 inning sample pitched in SF that appears to be complete outlier from the rest of his career.

It goes (grades based on the benefit of perfect hindsight):

1. Morton (A) This is the guy I wanted. An A+ would have been calling his bluff and getting him for something like $12M.
2. Ozuna (B+) He is an acceptable answer for "impact RHH". An A+ would have been holding out on him and getting him for 2 years.
3. Lamb (B) A decent caddy for Riley. An A+ would have been a less risky player for something like $3M.
4. Kipnis (C) A generic declining MLB player for the bench. An A+ would have been a better player for something like $3M.
5. Smyly (C-) An expensive lottery ticket due to injuries. The moment this deal was signed I was worried it would limit future spending.

I would like to see a RHP added to the BP that I can grade above average. Something like Greene for $2M would be an A. For comparison, I never liked the Will Smith signing and would hang a C- or worse on it...probably a D actually.

I also think AA is still being too conservative with trading prospects, and some of these holes could have been better filled with that strategy. I feel like AA does a poor job at selling high on guys like Newk, Wright, Camargo, Riley, and now Waters, and only trades guys once they have a value of essentially zero. His risk tolerance for trading prospects is too low, and is even lower than his risk tolerance for FA contracts (which I think is almost perfect for a mid-market team). However, that opinion is based on my ignorance of what he could have gotten for those assets, and there's no way to prove either side.
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This is pretty much spot on with my thoughts on this off-season.
 
Enscheff said:
Well...

Both guys are injury plagued and can be expected to post 2-3 wins if healthy. Smyly cost $11M, while Lamb cost $1M non-guaranteed. The Braves seem to have based the entire signing on a 26 inning sample pitched in SF that appears to be complete outlier from the rest of his career.

It goes (grades based on the benefit of perfect hindsight):

1. Morton (A) This is the guy I wanted. An A+ would have been calling his bluff and getting him for something like $12M.
2. Ozuna (B+) He is an acceptable answer for "impact RHH". An A+ would have been holding out on him and getting him for 2 years.
3. Lamb (B) A decent caddy for Riley. An A+ would have been a less risky player for something like $3M.
4. Kipnis (C) A generic declining MLB player for the bench. An A+ would have been a better player for something like $3M.
5. Smyly (C-) An expensive lottery ticket due to injuries. The moment this deal was signed I was worried it would limit future spending.

I would like to see a RHP added to the BP that I can grade above average. Something like Greene for $2M would be an A. For comparison, I never liked the Will Smith signing and would hang a C- or worse on it...probably a D actually.

I also think AA is still being too conservative with trading prospects, and some of these holes could have been better filled with that strategy. I feel like AA does a poor job at selling high on guys like Newk, Wright, Camargo, Riley, and now Waters, and only trades guys once they have a value of essentially zero. His risk tolerance for trading prospects is too low, and is even lower than his risk tolerance for FA contracts (which I think is almost perfect for a mid-market team). However, that opinion is based on my ignorance of what he could have gotten for those assets, and there's no way to prove either side.
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Man I was only being silly but great content none the less. Agree he seems to be hesitant on trading prospects but like you said we just don’t know. Looking back at a lot of trades. Not much could have helped. We weren’t getting Mookie or Lindor.
 
I am super intrigued by Philip Ervin.

In 2020, Ervin's rate stats remained mostly unchanged outside of a spike in BB rate. His EV also saw no noticeable change from recent years. The big difference is a .221 BABIP compared to his career average of .308. I think he's due to rebound, which would make him a pretty terrific 4th OFer.
 
Another bite to chew on (just for *hits and giggles)...

Assuming he could sign Puig for $5 million and spent the other $5 million remaining to spend at the deadline now instead to make Ender go away, AA could slide Acuna back to CF and send Pache down to get his service-time back.

This would leave a Puig/Ervin platoon in RF with Ervin available to give Acuna the random day off and come in as the defensive replacement for Ozuna...

Ervin vs. LHPs - .277/.352/.459
Puig vs. RHPs - ..285/.350/.495

Release Camargo to save a little money and the bench becomes A-Jax, Kipnis, Lamb, Adrianza, Ervin/Puig. That $5 million he was going to hold until the deadline plus the $1 million plus saved by releasing Camargo pays the vast majority of what's due Ender.
 
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Enscheff said:
He is what I always wanted when I blabber about getting a guy like Mous or Shaw or whatever other LHH at 3B I recently learn is available.

Hopefully he is healthy and not declined past the point of usefulness.
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Agree. The question for me is how durable is he? I don't think the Braves will do a platoon b/c Lamb would play most of the time. Can Lamb even play part time?

It will me interesting to see. Maybe he's a guy that can shine playing 1/3 or 2/9 and pinch hitting when not playing.

Good for Riley to have another option on the team to push him. I know he'll try his best regardless, but we are all human and having another option is good motivation.
 
So, you think AA is thinking RA (rf), ender, and ozuna vs rhp and Acuna (cf), ozuna, and Ervin vs lhp? Pache in AAA
 
bravesfanMatt said:
So AA was finally promoted
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Just looked up some data on Ervin, and his .298 xwOBA vs LHP the last 4 years certainly isn't anything to get excited about.

For comparison, Camargo has produced a .331 xwOBA vs LHP, and is an actual useful bat against them.

I hope Ervin doesn't open the season at the MLB level.
 
Enscheff said:
Well...

Both guys are injury plagued and can be expected to post 2-3 wins if healthy. Smyly cost $11M, while Lamb cost $1M non-guaranteed. The Braves seem to have based the entire signing on a 26 inning sample pitched in SF that appears to be complete outlier from the rest of his career.

It goes (grades based on the benefit of perfect hindsight):

1. Morton (A) This is the guy I wanted. An A+ would have been calling his bluff and getting him for something like $12M.
2. Ozuna (B+) He is an acceptable answer for "impact RHH". An A+ would have been holding out on him and getting him for 2 years.
3. Lamb (B) A decent caddy for Riley. An A+ would have been a less risky player for something like $3M.
4. Kipnis (C) A generic declining MLB player for the bench. An A+ would have been a better player for something like $3M.
5. Smyly (C-) An expensive lottery ticket due to injuries. The moment this deal was signed I was worried it would limit future spending.

I would like to see a RHP added to the BP that I can grade above average. Something like Greene for $2M would be an A. For comparison, I never liked the Will Smith signing and would hang a C- or worse on it...probably a D actually.

I also think AA is still being too conservative with trading prospects, and some of these holes could have been better filled with that strategy. I feel like AA does a poor job at selling high on guys like Newk, Wright, Camargo, Riley, and now Waters, and only trades guys once they have a value of essentially zero. His risk tolerance for trading prospects is too low, and is even lower than his risk tolerance for FA contracts (which I think is almost perfect for a mid-market team). However, that opinion is based on my ignorance of what he could have gotten for those assets, and there's no way to prove either side.
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I'm a little lower on Morton and Lamb (will we get 2020 D-Back or 2020 A?), but that's quibbling. Agree on the trading of prospects. We're probably not in the position to be doing 3-for-1s like we did prior to the international sanctions, but maybe that changes with the contraction of the minor league players a team can have under contract.
 
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Enscheff said:
Just looked up some data on Ervin, and his .298 xwOBA vs LHP the last 4 years certainly isn't anything to get excited about.

For comparison, Camargo has produced a .331 xwOBA vs LHP, and is an actual useful bat against them.

I hope Ervin doesn't open the season at the MLB level.
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Will have to be released if he doesn't - no options remaining for either him or Almonte.

Honestly really only see Ervin as an option if Pache doesn't start the season with the big club.
 
Enscheff said:
Well...

Both guys are injury plagued and can be expected to post 2-3 wins if healthy. Smyly cost $11M, while Lamb cost $1M non-guaranteed. The Braves seem to have based the entire signing on a 26 inning sample pitched in SF that appears to be complete outlier from the rest of his career.

It goes (grades based on the benefit of perfect hindsight):

1. Morton (A) This is the guy I wanted. An A+ would have been calling his bluff and getting him for something like $12M.
2. Ozuna (B+) He is an acceptable answer for "impact RHH". An A+ would have been holding out on him and getting him for 2 years.
3. Lamb (B) A decent caddy for Riley. An A+ would have been a less risky player for something like $3M.
4. Kipnis (C) A generic declining MLB player for the bench. An A+ would have been a better player for something like $3M.
5. Smyly (C-) An expensive lottery ticket due to injuries. The moment this deal was signed I was worried it would limit future spending.

I would like to see a RHP added to the BP that I can grade above average. Something like Greene for $2M would be an A. For comparison, I never liked the Will Smith signing and would hang a C- or worse on it...probably a D actually.

I also think AA is still being too conservative with trading prospects, and some of these holes could have been better filled with that strategy. I feel like AA does a poor job at selling high on guys like Newk, Wright, Camargo, Riley, and now Waters, and only trades guys once they have a value of essentially zero. His risk tolerance for trading prospects is too low, and is even lower than his risk tolerance for FA contracts (which I think is almost perfect for a mid-market team). However, that opinion is based on my ignorance of what he could have gotten for those assets, and there's no way to prove either side.
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If they have ANY doubts about Waters, I still wonder if a deal for Gallo would be an option. It wouldn't be hard to make his money fit, and dealing for him would allow you to send Pache down while keeping Ender as the 4th OF - coming in to play CF in the late innings when you move Acuna over and take Ozuna out on defense. It would also allow Freeman to stay in the #2 hole - Acuna, Freeman, Ozuna, Gallo, d'Arnaud, Ozzie would be enough to scare opposing Pitchers *hitless.

Just not sure they'll deal Gallo without a monster return - I probably wouldn't.
 
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Enscheff said:
Well...

Both guys are injury plagued and can be expected to post 2-3 wins if healthy. Smyly cost $11M, while Lamb cost $1M non-guaranteed. The Braves seem to have based the entire signing on a 26 inning sample pitched in SF that appears to be complete outlier from the rest of his career.

It goes (grades based on the benefit of perfect hindsight):

1. Morton (A) This is the guy I wanted. An A+ would have been calling his bluff and getting him for something like $12M.
2. Ozuna (B+) He is an acceptable answer for "impact RHH". An A+ would have been holding out on him and getting him for 2 years.
3. Lamb (B) A decent caddy for Riley. An A+ would have been a less risky player for something like $3M.
4. Kipnis (C) A generic declining MLB player for the bench. An A+ would have been a better player for something like $3M.
5. Smyly (C-) An expensive lottery ticket due to injuries. The moment this deal was signed I was worried it would limit future spending.

I would like to see a RHP added to the BP that I can grade above average. Something like Greene for $2M would be an A. For comparison, I never liked the Will Smith signing and would hang a C- or worse on it...probably a D actually.

I also think AA is still being too conservative with trading prospects, and some of these holes could have been better filled with that strategy. I feel like AA does a poor job at selling high on guys like Newk, Wright, Camargo, Riley, and now Waters, and only trades guys once they have a value of essentially zero. His risk tolerance for trading prospects is too low, and is even lower than his risk tolerance for FA contracts (which I think is almost perfect for a mid-market team). However, that opinion is based on my ignorance of what he could have gotten for those assets, and there's no way to prove either side.
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I think he considers Smyly as a playoff bullpen arm....that’s the only thing I can think of for the amount we paid. There must have been many guys on board with this...still strange.

I think AA is more apprehensive to trade because of our International limitations. I am really surprised he didn’t make some trades. This was the year value wise (will never get much better), and the year first year we are a true contender.
 
TheBravos said:
I think he considers Smyly as a playoff bullpen arm....that’s the only thing I can think of for the amount we paid. There must have been many guys on board with this...still strange.

I think AA is more apprehensive to trade because of our International limitations. I am really surprised he didn’t make some trades. This was the year value wise (will never get much better), and the year first year we are a true contender.
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Why would he be a playoff BP arm? If Smyly pitches like he did last season, he's easily one of our 3 best pitchers.
 
clvclv said:
If they have ANY doubts about Waters, I still wonder if a deal for Gallo would be an option. It wouldn't be hard to make his money fit, and dealing for him would allow you to send Pache down while keeping Ender as the 4th OF - coming in to play CF in the late innings when you move Acuna over and take Ozuna out on defense. It would also allow Freeman to stay in the #2 hole - Acuna, Freeman, Ozuna, Gallo, d'Arnaud, Ozzie would be enough to scare opposing Pitchers *hitless.

Just not sure they'll deal Gallo without a monster return - I probably wouldn't.
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Gallo is losing value pretty quickly with his injury in 2019 and his poor offensive showing in 2020. Combined with his 2 years remaining control, they should jettison him by the trade deadline this year if they hope to get much value out of him. I guess they could simply resign him, but Texas really isn't close to competing in the AL West.
 
Carp said:
Gallo is losing value pretty quickly with his injury in 2019 and his poor offensive showing in 2020. Combined with his 2 years remaining control, they should jettison him by the trade deadline this year if they hope to get much value out of him. I guess they could simply resign him, but Texas really isn't close to competing in the AL West.
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Exactly why I think they'll hold onto him unless someone blows them away - they don't have any names left to try to get people to come out to their new park (whenever they do get to come).

From a team-building standpoint I realize that shouldn't matter, but it's probably a little tougher to sell ownership on that when they just spent piles of money on the new facility just in time to lose their *sses since it was empty all year. It might be a little different if they had a system full of exciting kids who were almost-ready and you were getting someone for him you control to go with those guys that filled out the roster/"replaced" Gallo, but that's not really the case here since they don't have many upper-tier prospects.
 
clvclv said:
Exactly why I think they'll hold onto him unless someone blows them away - they don't have any names left to try to get people to come out to their new park (whenever they do get to come).

From a team-building standpoint I realize that shouldn't matter, but it's probably a little tougher to sell ownership on that when they just spent piles of money on the new facility just in time to lose their *sses since it was empty all year. It might be a little different if they had a system full of exciting kids who were almost-ready and you were getting someone for him you control to go with those guys that filled out the roster/"replaced" Gallo, but that's not really the case here since they don't have many upper-tier prospects.
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I hate this argument. Fans turnout isn't likely to affected whether or not Gallo is on the team.
 
Some FG love for one of our BP projects:
Vìctor Arano, SIRP, Atlanta Braves
Arano was once pitching so well that he generated his own article here at FanGraphs, but a pair of 2019 surgeries (elbow and shoulder) derailed the young Mexican reliever’s career. After averaging 94 mph during his fantastic rookie season, he was living in the low-90s at the Phillies 2020 alternate site and he was never called upon to help their ailing bullpen, nor was he dominant for Yaquis de Obregon over the winter. The Phillies DFA’d him in January, when he was picked up by the Braves. Arano’s slider is the important pitch, and as he’s always thrown more sliders than anything else, it’s that pitch that needs to be good. Unlike Kansas City’s bullpen, Atlanta’s is heavily left-handed, and righty Luke Jackson is coming off a rough year. The Wilson/Touki/Ynoa/De La Cruz group looms but it might be better for Atlanta to keep at least a couple of those guys stretched out, and I think Arano, who’s on the 40-man, may get an opportunity to contribute.
 
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