Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Ever since Ender signed that big contract extension he has basically given up on taking care of his body. Cashed in and got the big bucks.
 
Enscheff said:
Healthy Ender? Yes.

Old man Ender from the last 2 seasons? Not even close.

All we can do now is hope Ender has been drinking his Metamucil and taking his joint pills.
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sure, agreed. but even Ender in 2019 put up 0.9 fWAR in 65 games to JBJ's 1.4 in 140+.
we're really talking about one season when it comes to Inciarte.
 
Super said:
i don't think JBJ and Inciarte are that different in value.
JBJ put up 1.4 fWAR in 140+ games in 2019. rode a high BABIP to good offensive numbers last year. JBJ also 6 months older.
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Not current Ender, imo. Prior to 2020, you'd have a very strong case. But Ender has been trending downward for 3 straight seasons now, despite offense around the league rising. I think him even getting back to 2018-2019 levels is unlikely at this point.
 
Super said:
sure, agreed. but even Ender in 2019 put up 0.9 fWAR in 65 games to JBJ's 1.4 in 140+.
we're really talking about one season when it comes to Inciarte.
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We are talking about Ender being healthy and in shape, which is something he may or may not be able to do anymore. He sounds motivated to prove himself with Pache coming for his job, so maybe that's all he needed to light that fire again.

I realize it's nothing more than a slight spin on a BSoML story, but at this point it's all we have to hang our hopes on for that $8M roster spot.
 
Carp said:
Not current Ender, imo. Prior to 2020, you'd have a very strong case. But Ender has been trending downward for 3 straight seasons now, despite offense around the league rising. I think him even getting back to 2018-2019 levels is unlikely at this point.
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Season Team Level G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ EV BsR Off Def WAR
2016 ATL MLB 131 578 3 85 29 16 7.8% 11.8% .090 .329 .291 .351 .381 .319 97 85.4 4.5 2.0 10.4 3.1
2017 ATL MLB 158 718 11 93 57 22 6.8% 13.1% .106 .339 .304 .350 .409 .328 98 82.8 2.3 0.3 5.2 2.9
2018 ATL MLB 156 660 10 83 61 28 7.4% 13.0% .116 .293 .265 .325 .380 .308 90 84.9 6.1 -1.8 9.5 2.9
2019 ATL MLB 65 230 5 30 24 7 11.3% 17.8% .151 .286 .246 .343 .397 .318 93 83.0 2.6 0.5 1.4 0.9
2020 ATL MLB 46 131 1 17 10 4 9.2% 19.1% .060 .228 .190 .262 .250 .233 40 78.2 1.4 -8.8 -0.8 -0.6

i mean 3.1 to 2.9 is technically trending down but it's hardly substantial.
was very good 2nd half of 2019.
we're talking 46 games last year.
 
Mad Dog Murph said:
Might be a different guy. There is a Diego Benitez that is a RHP that is 6Â’0 195.
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That's correct. The SS was originally only talking to the Yankees. One of his best friends is a catcher (Galiz) pretty highly thought of who was signing with the Yankees. The Yankees reversed course and this may have led to Benitez talking to Atlanta. He is supposedly going to be Atlanta's top target.

The Yankees say he's 6'2/6'3. BA says 6'0. With these kids it's wait until you lay eyes on them. But here is a little more. Do with this what you will..😂😂😂:

His power and arm grade out to 60. 55 glove and run. He has drawn comparisons to Carlos Correa. Bronxbaseball is the source. So there. We have Seager and Correa comparisons. He may be Rafael Furcal....who knows.

Just glad we're back in the IFA game. Although I wish we could've kept that Pauson kid.
 
Super said:
Season Team Level G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ EV BsR Off Def WAR
2016 ATL MLB 131 578 3 85 29 16 7.8% 11.8% .090 .329 .291 .351 .381 .319 97 85.4 4.5 2.0 10.4 3.1
2017 ATL MLB 158 718 11 93 57 22 6.8% 13.1% .106 .339 .304 .350 .409 .328 98 82.8 2.3 0.3 5.2 2.9
2018 ATL MLB 156 660 10 83 61 28 7.4% 13.0% .116 .293 .265 .325 .380 .308 90 84.9 6.1 -1.8 9.5 2.9
2019 ATL MLB 65 230 5 30 24 7 11.3% 17.8% .151 .286 .246 .343 .397 .318 93 83.0 2.6 0.5 1.4 0.9
2020 ATL MLB 46 131 1 17 10 4 9.2% 19.1% .060 .228 .190 .262 .250 .233 40 78.2 1.4 -8.8 -0.8 -0.6

i mean 3.1 to 2.9 is technically trending down but it's hardly substantial.
was very good 2nd half of 2019.
we're talking 46 games last year.
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I'm talking offensively. He's been trending downward in most categories since the start of 2018. A healthy Ender likely isn't as bad as he was in 2020, but he's likely still a good bit worse than he was 3 years ago. And to state the obvious, expecting a 30 year old CF with a recent history of injuries to remain healthy seems foolhardy.
 
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Carp said:
I'm talking offensively. He's been trending downward in most categories since the start of 2018. A healthy Ender likely isn't as bad as he was in 2020, but he's likely still a good bit worse than he was 3 years ago. And to state the obvious, expecting a 30 year old CF with a recent history of injuries to remain healthy seems foolhardy.
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his EV went UP from 2017 to 2018.
here's the timeline:

2019 - awful to begin the year. basically was hurt. came back healthy and strong in the 2nd half
2020 - hurt all year in a season cut by 2/3.

that's basically it. it's not like he's missed two full 162 game seasons or something.
of course the concern is health, and even if he's healthy, how long will he be healthy? i think it's much more of a coin flip tho that he has a healthy, fine season vs. an injury-riddled season. neither one is a major favorite IMO.

and i suppose my overall point with JBJ is that i'd rather have Ender on his current deal than have to sign JBJ to that deal. Bradley basically earned that money off last year alone, while riding a high BABIP, which good for him, but he was very meh in a full season in 2019. i think he's closer to that player than the 2020 player. and he's almost 31.
 
Super said:
his EV went UP from 2017 to 2018.
here's the timeline:

2019 - awful to begin the year. basically was hurt. came back healthy and strong in the 2nd half
2020 - hurt all year in a season cut by 2/3.

that's basically it. it's not like he's missed two full 162 game seasons or something.
of course the concern is health, and even if he's healthy, how long will he be healthy? i think it's much more of a coin flip tho that he has a healthy, fine season vs. an injury-riddled season. neither one is a major favorite IMO.

and i suppose my overall point with JBJ is that i'd rather have Ender on his current deal than have to sign JBJ to that deal. Bradley basically earned that money off last year alone, while riding a high BABIP, which good for him, but he was very meh in a full season in 2019. i think he's closer to that player than the 2020 player. and he's almost 31.
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I don't think I would want either one of them on their present contracts, but JBJ is a better career offensive player and arguably defender, who also hasn't looked like complete ass the last two seasons.

Of course the choice wasn't really Ender or JBJ. It was broken down Ender vs anyone else the 9m could have brought in (Point of fact there wasn't a choice).

But yeah, maybe I'd take cutting Ender and being done with him after this season over still having to pay JBJ in 2022. I'd have to think that one out.
 
Southcack77 said:
I don't think I would want either one of them on their present contracts, but JBJ is a better career offensive player and arguably defender, who also hasn't looked like complete ass the last two seasons.

Of course the choice wasn't really Ender or JBJ. It was broken down Ender vs anyone else the 9m could have brought in (Point of fact there wasn't a choice).

But yeah, maybe I'd take cutting Ender and being done with him after this season over still having to pay JBJ in 2022. I'd have to think that one out.
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Pretty easy decision IMO since that money can be used in Freeman's extension.
 
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