Saying good bye to Freddie

S

salmagundy

Boras' Client
at end of season looms more likely.

From MLBTR

Asked about extension talks with the Braves, Freeman said Tuesday (via Jeff Schultz of The Athletic), “There is no negotiations.” Freeman added that discussing a deal during the season “would be a distraction and I don’t like distractions. My main focus is the game tonight and I don’t think there’s going to be much talking any time soon.”


Read full article on MLBTR. Extension doesn't look good especially since Liberty down't seem to want to spend like they should on the Braves and make them a WS winning team. Just my thought. Of course Freddie wanting a Goldschmidt type extension might be a big reason for no extension.
 
Freeman is an all-time great Brave. He's not close to Hank, Chipper or Matthews, he's a healthy amount behind Andruw, and he's a little behind McCann and Murphy. He's right there with any one else though. He deserves all the praise he gets, but he's 31. At 6'5 200+ he's a big boy. Big guys don't tend to age well.

Let's look at some 1B with similar offensive numbers to him through the same age. And we'll look at high quality seasons (4+ fWAR) 31 and younger and then older

Helton - Before 5 after 2
Powell - Before 4 after 1
Cepeda - Before 4 after 1
Delgado - Before 5 after 0
Olerud - Before 4 after 2
Will Clark- Before 5 after 0
McGriff - Before 6 after 0
Berkman - Before 5 after 2
Votto - Before 5 after 3

Some had obviously better aging curves than others.

Instead I want to talk though about his number 1 comp basically his whole career, Eddie Murray.

Through age 31 Murray had a 141 OPS+Freeman is at 138. Murray hit .296/.372/.502 Freeman .294/.383/.509. Aside from Murray being a switch hitter and a little smaller the soverall similaries are great. Here's what Murray did after 31 in terms of OPS+

32 - 136
33 - 113
34 - 159
35 - 105
36 - 115
37 - 112
38 - 87
39 - 129
40 - 87
41 - 55

Murray's value basically went to slightly above replacement by 35. WHich I think is probably likely for freeman, 3 more years of high production and then a few more years of mediocre production, with a few highs and lows in there. He's not CHipper Jones, Even if he is, that buys him 2 more years of high value performance.

I would offer him a "retirement" contract. Figure over the next 10 years he's worth about 20 WAR. Probably being a bit generous, who knows, So offer him what maxes out at 10/160 but basically it's a 6 year contract with vesting and team options for the rest of it. Incase he full on burns out like fellow 6'5 hitting machine Troy Glaus we have some protection but he keeps on keeping on like Chipper he will be rewarded even if he will likely be overpaid by that point.
 
It’ll get done imo. We have no replacement in house and anything outside the organization for his production would cost the same amount.
 
Corporate ownership looks at things totally different than fans. Do you wonder why Donaldson wasnt signed after the 2019 season for the same type deal FF will be looking for? Then there is the investment in Truist and The Battery. Not to mention the pending CBA.
 
It's pretty baffling how this has been handled by AA. Quite frankly, this is not how you handle the contract situation of the face of your franchise. You can tell Freddie is annoyed. At the bare minimum there should be communication back and forth, which doesn't appear to be happening.
 
I think an extension gets done. Payroll has gone up. We have a lot of money being freed up this winter. Not many holes. Unless AA is planning on finally making that big trade for a stud like Chapman or Jose Ramirez, then I don't see how he can justify not bringing Freddie back. Could also be trying a it of leverage play by making sure Freddie ends the season healthy before offering up the contract he wants. I think an extension gets worked out before FA starts. But if he's a FA when FA begins, I don't like our chances of bringing him back.
 
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When Freeman is a FA with a QO stuck on him, teams will be hesitant to sign a 1B in his 30s...just like they've been the last 5ish years.

Freeman will have one obvious landing spot, and that will be Atlanta...or the Angels since Pujols comes off the books. If the Angels are ready to hand out another moronic FA contract to an aging 1B, there's nothing AA can (or should) do about it.

Freeman's agent would be wise to test the FA market in the offseason the Angels have a Pujols sized hole at 1B, and that's exactly what he should do. Moreno is so stupid he might very well give Freeman $200M, when the rest of baseball only offers aging 1B 2-3 years.
 
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Enscheff said:
When Freeman is a FA with a QO stuck on him, teams will be hesitant to sign a 1B in his 30s...just like they've been the last 5ish years.

Freeman will have one obvious landing spot, and that will be Atlanta...or the Angels since Pujols comes off the books. If the Angels are ready to hand out another moronic FA contract to an aging 1B, there's nothing AA can (or should) do about it.

Freeman's agent would be wise to test the FA market in the offseason the Angels have a Pujols sized hole at 1B, and that's exactly what he should do. Moreno is so stupid he might very well give Freeman $200M, when the rest of baseball only offers aging 1B 2-3 years.
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If DH is here, watch Mets break the bank for him
 
Enscheff said:
When Freeman is a FA with a QO stuck on him, teams will be hesitant to sign a 1B in his 30s...just like they've been the last 5ish years.

Freeman will have one obvious landing spot, and that will be Atlanta...or the Angels since Pujols comes off the books. If the Angels are ready to hand out another moronic FA contract to an aging 1B, there's nothing AA can (or should) do about it.

Freeman's agent would be wise to test the FA market in the offseason the Angels have a Pujols sized hole at 1B, and that's exactly what he should do. Moreno is so stupid he might very well give Freeman $200M, when the rest of baseball only offers aging 1B 2-3 years.
Click to expand...

When you put it that way, it worries me. It's a new day in Anaheim. He grew up in Fountain Valley. And Minasian is a check on Moreno's stupidity. So they could wind up making a strong-ass offer (thanks, Will Wade) that's still sane.

I'm sure if we make a sane, strong-ass offer he'll stay, and I don't really understand why AA hasn't made one yet. To me the key is to keep the term relatively short. There's just a ton of risk with a 10 year deal (not that anybody was suggesting one, but that's what Moreno did with Pooholes). I'd rather overpay him for four years - maybe something like 4-$120M - with options for a 5th and 6th year, then maybe go year-to-year if he's still productive and wants to keep going.

I suppose it's possible that AA wants to have more data on revenue and budget than he does currently and wants to be able to justify his spend with Liberty, but wouldn't you tell Freddie's representatives, "Hey, we're very interested, I'll be back in touch later in the year?" The silence is very curious, and yes, reading between the lines of Freddie's very professional comments, he's ticked off.
 
NYCBrave said:
It's pretty baffling how this has been handled by AA. Quite frankly, this is not how you handle the contract situation of the face of your franchise. You can tell Freddie is annoyed. At the bare minimum there should be communication back and forth, which doesn't appear to be happening.
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It's easy to see why Freeman's frustrated with the situation since he's been pretty open about wanting to stay, but AA being careful makes tons of sense on several fronts as well.

I don't think there's a whole lot to worry about at this point, but dealing with an aging face of the franchise is always difficult - I remember always feeling a little uneasy when it was time for Chipper to get new deals way back when. The difference here is how much Freddie keeps talking about it publicly - even in the pre-AA days, Chipper's standard line was "that stuff will work itself out". I don't recall him ever allowing his situation to draw this much attention. I still think there's a chance that Freddie's just "playing dumb" since AA's MO is not to talk about big things until they're already done, but I do admit I wonder what's going on from time-to-time.

At the end of the day, I think Enscheff and Carp are right - AA is probably just trying to get a little closer to the end of the current deal to eliminate at least SOME of the risk. Having a QO attached at his age will likely significantly impact what other teams are willing to spend on Freddie. AA is probably dragging his feet a little because he wants Freeman's reps to learn on their own that there may not be a Goldschmidt deal available on the open market IF teams also have to give up a high pick with that deal. I still think it made at least some sense for both sides to use that deal as a guide IF they could have torn up the last year of his current deal so the first year could have been 2021 instead of 2022 - maybe even having the final year be a team option with a pretty big buyout.
 
msstate7 said:
If DH is here, watch Mets break the bank for him
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Another good point.

Freeman would be foolish to sign a contract before every team has a chance to bid on him as their everyday DH unless AA clearly overpays right now.

And AA would be foolish to clearly overpay right now.
 
It's been reported for years, but the relationship between Liberty Media and the Braves isn't really one in which Liberty Media sets budgets or wades into the minutiae of year-to-year payroll, player extensions, et cetera. If you have to be mad at someone for the Braves' seemingly self-imposed budgetary restraints, you've got to blame Terry McGuirk.
 
jpx7 said:
It's been reported for years, but the relationship between Liberty Media and the Braves isn't really one in which Liberty Media sets budgets or wades into the minutiae of year-to-year payroll, player extensions, et cetera. If you have to be mad at someone for the Braves' seemingly self-imposed budgetary restraints, you've got to blame Terry McGuirk.
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And who does McGuirk answer to?
 
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