With Freeman signed, who should Wren try too extend next?

[AUTiger7222]

Someone said not to mention pitchers because of the Braves pipeline of pitching. But I think you need to keep 1 or 2 established pitchers. You can't go with kids every year. I think Mike Minor needs to be kept. Minor is an Ace type pitcher IMO. We saw what he did to the Dodgers in the playoffs when we needed him to step up. But not just that game. Last season in the regular season Minor was 5-0 with an ERA under 2 against NL playoff teams. Minor seems to raise up his level of performance in big games. That's something you can't teach. You've either got it or you don't and he would be the guy that would be at the top of my list to extend now that Freeman is taken care of.

 

[zitothebrave]

I would love to keep Minor and Teheran, I'd just pick Simmons, Heyward and Justin over them.

 

[AUTiger7222]

I would love to keep Minor and Teheran, I'd just pick Simmons, Heyward and Justin over them.

I'm not worried about Simmons yet. I don't think we have to worry about him until the 2015 or 2016 offseason. Heyward and Justin are priorities. I'd still like to see Heyward put it all together for 150 games before giving him monster money. I think that's the issue the Braves have with him right now. I just imagine the numbers Heyward could put up in 150 plus games if he hits like he did after Fredi put him in the leadoff spot last season. He would easily be worth the $150M plus he would get. I actually think keeping Justin long-term would be easier than it would be for Heyward.

 

[Heyward]

I'm not worried about Simmons yet. I don't think we have to worry about him until the 2015 or 2016 offseason. Heyward and Justin are priorities. I'd still like to see Heyward put it all together for 150 games before giving him monster money. I think that's the issue the Braves have with him right now. I just imagine the numbers Heyward could put up in 150 plus games if he hits like he did after Fredi put him in the leadoff spot last season. He would easily be worth the $150M plus he would get. I actually think keeping Justin long-term would be easier than it would be for Heyward.

Heyward had a monster year in 2012.

He had an appendix/appedeptimy sp? and got hit in the face, those are flukish.

Only reasoning with JUp is he may be cheaper while Heyward will cost a lot.

I agree with Simmons but it wouldnt be bad if they try to extend him now.

 

[Heyward]

Someone said not to mention pitchers because of the Braves pipeline of pitching. But I think you need to keep 1 or 2 established pitchers. You can't go with kids every year. I think Mike Minor needs to be kept. Minor is an Ace type pitcher IMO. We saw what he did to the Dodgers in the playoffs when we needed him to step up. But not just that game. Last season in the regular season Minor was 5-0 with an ERA under 2 against NL playoff teams. Minor seems to raise up his level of performance in big games. That's something you can't teach. You've either got it or you don't and he would be the guy that would be at the top of my list to extend now that Freeman is taken care of.

I would too but i've said already, we have some pitchers coming up, there is not much at all with position players.

Why most would want to keep Simba/JH/JUp over pitchers.

 

[AUTiger7222]

Heyward had a monster year in 2012.

He had an appendix/appedeptimy sp? and got hit in the face, those are flukish.

Only reasoning with JUp is he may be cheaper while Heyward will cost a lot.

I agree with Simmons but it wouldnt be bad if they try to extend him now.

Yes Heyward was great in 2012 but his OPS was barely over .800 that year at .814. Yes the two injuries he had in 2013 were fluky but it still cost him games. Let's not forget that Heyward had injury issues in the minors too. We need to see Heyward at least hit like he did in 2010 (.849 OPS) while playing GG defense (2012) while also playing 150 plus games before committing that much too him.

The reason I said Justin would be easier to keep is because he would be cheaper.

 

[AUTiger7222]

I would too but i've said already, we have some pitchers coming up, there is not much at all with position players.

Why most would want to keep Simba/JH/JUp over pitchers.

Yes we do. But who's to say those guys will keep developing and become the pitchers we need them to be to replace what we've got in guys like Minor and Medlen? I don't disagree that keeping Simba, J-Up and J-Hey over the pitchers is the better priority. I don't think we need to worry about Simmons yet. He'll be a Super-Two player next year but how much could he possibly get in arb? I think we can wait a year or two on Simmons. Focus on Minor, J-Up and Heyward. This is a make or break year for Heyward IMO. If he doesn't at least repeat 2012 then I think the Braves shop him next offseason. Justin needs to be more consistent. He doesn't have to hit like he did in April but we at least need him to perform at a more consistent basis than the all or nothing months he had in 2013. I've already made my case for why I think Minor needs to be kept. One of the reasons the Braves tried to keep Hudson was because they were wanting an established veteran pitcher. Well Minor is now that established veteran pitcher.

 

[Heyward]

Yes we do. But who's to say those guys will keep developing and become the pitchers we need them to be to replace what we've got in guys like Minor and Medlen? I don't disagree that keeping Simba, J-Up and J-Hey over the pitchers is the better priority. I don't think we need to worry about Simmons yet. He'll be a Super-Two player next year but how much could he possibly get in arb? I think we can wait a year or two on Simmons. Focus on Minor, J-Up and Heyward. This is a make or break year for Heyward IMO. If he doesn't at least repeat 2012 then I think the Braves shop him next offseason. Justin needs to be more consistent. He doesn't have to hit like he did in April but we at least need him to perform at a more consistent basis than the all or nothing months he had in 2013. I've already made my case for why I think Minor needs to be kept. One of the reasons the Braves tried to keep Hudson was because they were wanting an established veteran pitcher. Well Minor is now that established veteran pitcher.

Simmons if he wins the GG (decent chance), could cost more than some think in arby.

On Heyward, it most definately is.

Agree with JUp, i do worry how he will age, but if we cant keep Heyward, not a terrible Plan B to get JUp.

How much would it cost to extend Minor?

I'd try to keep him but at what price.

5/75 or so?

 

[AUTiger7222]

Simmons if he wins the GG (decent chance), could cost more than some think in arby.

On Heyward, it most definately is.

Agree with JUp, i do worry how he will age, but if we cant keep Heyward, not a terrible Plan B to get JUp.

How much would it cost to extend Minor?

I'd try to keep him but at what price.

5/75 or so?

I think 5 for 75 on Minor is very fair on both sides. Maybe 6 for 100. 6 for 100 would be an AAV of $16.7M which I think would be a steal for a TOR pitcher in this day and age of very average pitchers getting $10M plus AAV on deals. Also a 6 year deal on Minor that started this year would take us through 2019 and his age 26-31 seasons. So we wouldn't have that burden of being stuck with an aging pitcher on a bad contract.

 

[yeezus]

I would try and sign Simmons right now for something like 7-63 to 7-70.

 

[thethe]

I would try and sign Simmons right now for something like 7-63 to 7-70.

I second this.

Then I would after Teheran.

 

[yeezus]

I think 5 for 75 on Minor is very fair on both sides. Maybe 6 for 100. 6 for 100 would be an AAV of $16.7M which I think would be a steal for a TOR pitcher in this day and age of very average pitchers getting $10M plus AAV on deals. Also a 6 year deal on Minor that started this year would take us through 2019 and his age 26-31 seasons. So we wouldn't have that burden of being stuck with an aging pitcher on a bad contract.

For the sake of discussion, let's say Minor comes off a great year at age 31, what would we "hypothetically" do? Cliff Lee is still good and he's older than that, Minor could still be very productive at that age.

 

[thewupk]

Simmons should be the priority now. Elite defense with a mediocre bat should come at a relative bargain. His defensive skills are also the least likely tool to deteriorate before he turns 30.

How much of a bargain do you think it will be? They are not at the same time frame in regards to their service time but Andrus had 4 years of service time and was coming off two 4 WAR seasons and signed for 8/120. There are different things you have to factor in like Andrus is only a year older but has had 5 years more of service time so their age post FA years will be different. Also the market increasing as well. If Simmons stays on the same path you are going to have to pay him 15+ or more imo. At worse he's Andrus' equal overall with major room for growth offensively. The only saving grace for the Braves is that defense first guys are under paid compared to the offensive first guys with the same value.

 

[thewupk]

Yes Heyward was great in 2012 but his OPS was barely over .800 that year at .814. Yes the two injuries he had in 2013 were fluky but it still cost him games. Let's not forget that Heyward had injury issues in the minors too. We need to see Heyward at least hit like he did in 2010 (.849 OPS) while playing GG defense (2012) while also playing 150 plus games before committing that much too him.

The reason I said Justin would be easier to keep is because he would be cheaper.

The only question with Heyward is staying on the field. He's roughly a 5 win player per 162 games. Players aren't judged by offense alone and while you may not think his OPS was great you have to realize that offense is going down in the league. An 814 OPS in 2012 is not the same as it was in 2002. That's also not even taking into consideration that OPS is a flawed offensive statistic anyways since OBP isn't valued correctly. WOBA and WRC+ are much better. For example the difference between Heywards 2013 and 2012 seasons had a near 40 point drop in OPS. However in WOBA it was only 11 points. Why? Because Heyward had a 14 point advantage in OBP. That's a big difference. And Hewards WRC+ was only 1 point off from 2012 since it's a park/league adjusted stat and league offense dropped yet again in 2013. Those are all things that have to be looked at instead of just raw OPS. Not to mention that Heyward is an elite defender and good base runner.

All that to say this. Heyward may not have the sexy stats that some like but overall he's our best player. He does everything at an above average or elite level. When he's healthy and on the field he will show it like he did in 2010 and 2012.

 

[AUTiger7222]

For the sake of discussion, let's say Minor comes off a great year at age 31, what would we "hypothetically" do? Cliff Lee is still good and he's older than that, Minor could still be very productive at that age.

Yes he could be. But for every Cliff Lee, Tim Hudson, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, ect. that were still productive into their late 30s there's tons of other pitchers that just fall off a cliff suddenly like a Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, ect. Usually injuries are involved but it's still a possibility that I don't the Braves need to risk. If Minor has a great season at age 31 you thank him for his time and let him walk if he's not willing to take a very team friendly deal at that point. By team friendly I mean only 3 or 4 years.

 

[AUTiger7222]

The only question with Heyward is staying on the field. He's roughly a 5 win player per 162 games. Players aren't judged by offense alone and while you may not think his OPS was great you have to realize that offense is going down in the league. An 814 OPS in 2012 is not the same as it was in 2002. That's also not even taking into consideration that OPS is a flawed offensive statistic anyways since OBP isn't valued correctly. WOBA and WRC+ are much better. For example the difference between Heywards 2013 and 2012 seasons had a near 40 point drop in OPS. However in WOBA it was only 11 points. Why? Because Heyward had a 14 point advantage in OBP. That's a big difference. And Hewards WRC+ was only 1 point off from 2012 since it's a park/league adjusted stat and league offense dropped yet again in 2013. Those are all things that have to be looked at instead of just raw OPS. Not to mention that Heyward is an elite defender and good base runner.

All that to say this. Heyward may not have the sexy stats that some like but overall he's our best player. He does everything at an above average or elite level. When he's healthy and on the field he will show it like he did in 2010 and 2012.

I don't disagree with anything you said. But the Braves can't be stuck with the next Chipper Jones. A guy earning mega money to only play 90-130 games a season.

 

[gilesfan]

Yes he could be. But for every Cliff Lee, Tim Hudson, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, ect. that were still productive into their late 30s there's tons of other pitchers that just fall off a cliff suddenly like a Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, ect. Usually injuries are involved but it's still a possibility that I don't the Braves need to risk. If Minor has a great season at age 31 you thank him for his time and let him walk if he's not willing to take a very team friendly deal at that point. By team friendly I mean only 3 or 4 years.

The guys you mentioned (that were any good, LOL Russ Ortiz) were all injured which caused regression. Roy Halladay won the Cy Young at 32 and was 2nd in the Cy Young at 33.

Chris Carpenter won the Cy Young at 34 and was an all star at 35. Put up a good season at 36.....terrrible example.

 

[AUTiger7222]

The guys you mentioned (that were any good, LOL Russ Ortiz) were all injured which caused regression. Roy Halladay won the Cy Young at 32 and was 2nd in the Cy Young at 33.

Chris Carpenter won the Cy Young at 34 and was an all star at 35. Put up a good season at 36.....terrrible example.

Did I or did I not say that injuries are usually involved? I could have swore I said that. I guess you forgot that Russ Ortiz had some good years early in his career with the Giants and Braves.

 

[zitothebrave]

Yes he could be. But for every Cliff Lee, Tim Hudson, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, ect. that were still productive into their late 30s there's tons of other pitchers that just fall off a cliff suddenly like a Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, ect. Usually injuries are involved but it's still a possibility that I don't the Braves need to risk. If Minor has a great season at age 31 you thank him for his time and let him walk if he's not willing to take a very team friendly deal at that point. By team friendly I mean only 3 or 4 years.

Those guys didn't fall off, they were either not very good or they had career ending injuries. And Haladay was a Cy Young candidate until he was 35 so you can't really knock him that hard. Hampton was never that good, people were fooled by his ERA before hitting FA but with Houston or the Mets his lowest FIP was 3.64. Hampton didn't strike out a ton of guys and walked way too many. Imagine if Tim Hudson walked guys like Tim Lincecum and that's Mike Hampton. Russ Ortiz, even worse. He struck out around the same level as Hampton but walked a batter 1 more time per nine innings.

Generally speaking, guys who're dominant pitchers stay dominant late into their career unless injuries get them, and you can't really predict injuries. Some guys you can hedge bets on (for example Maddux and RJ were always more likely to pitch old than Pedro who had injury concerns before turning 30) but in general if you have a healthy and dominant pitcher at 31 then he'll stay that way for some time. Pitchers age better than hitters usually.

 

[AUTiger7222]

Those guys didn't fall off, they were either not very good or they had career ending injuries. And Haladay was a Cy Young candidate until he was 35 so you can't really knock him that hard. Hampton was never that good, people were fooled by his ERA before hitting FA but with Houston or the Mets his lowest FIP was 3.64. Hampton didn't strike out a ton of guys and walked way too many. Imagine if Tim Hudson walked guys like Tim Lincecum and that's Mike Hampton. Russ Ortiz, even worse. He struck out around the same level as Hampton but walked a batter 1 more time per nine innings.

Generally speaking, guys who're dominant pitchers stay dominant late into their career unless injuries get them, and you can't really predict injuries. Some guys you can hedge bets on (for example Maddux and RJ were always more likely to pitch old than Pedro who had injury concerns before turning 30) but in general if you have a healthy and dominant pitcher at 31 then he'll stay that way for some time. Pitchers age better than hitters usually.

I don't totally disagree with anything you've said. I'm just thinking about it from how the Braves have to operate now. You can't predict injuries. Roy Halladay was one of the most durable pitchers in baseball for a long time and then just broke down suddenly. Santana didn't have as long of a track record but again broken down suddenly. I never said that the Braves couldn't keep Minor passed age 31 and have him still be productive. It's really too far into the future to know how the Braves payroll would look then to know if they could give him another contract of 3-5 years and have it be a wise investment.