2015 payroll/roster

[AUTiger7222]

You never know, but I think there's a good chance of it. Medlen or Kimbrel is likely to be traded, Medlen is more valuable than Kimbrel by a bit but his return is way higher. That said if Kimbrel wins arb he's gone next year.

I think the chances of Kimbrel winning his arb case or less than 5%. A judge would have to be absolutely insane to award Kimbrel his case. Especially since Kimbrel's closest comparison (Chapman) just signed for $5M.

 

[AUTiger7222]

Kimbrel is probably gone unless we get lucky and he'd sign a team-friendly extension (not happening)

I would guess he'll make 13-15 next year.

Meds depends which pitchers are ready on the farm.

Say Medlen gets traded. Where does that leave us?

Mike Minor
Alex Wood
Julio Teheran
Brandon Beachy

Then the 5th spot is open. J.R. Graham? David Hale? Omar Poveda? Cody Martin? Aaron Northcraft?

 

[Heyward]

Say Medlen gets traded. Where does that leave us?

Mike Minor
Alex Wood
Julio Teheran
Brandon Beachy

Then the 5th spot is open. J.R. Graham? David Hale? Omar Poveda? Cody Martin? Aaron Northcraft?

Umm, i dont know.

Someone on the farm i would guess.

Graham is best suited to the bullpen imo, possibly to replace Kimbrel.

Maybe a FA, maybe, but doubt it.

The others you named are possible, when is Sims going to be ready?

 

[AUTiger7222]

Umm, i dont know.

Someone on the farm i would guess.

Graham is best suited to the bullpen imo, possibly to replace Kimbrel.

Maybe a FA, maybe, but doubt it.

The others you named are possible, when is Sims going to be ready?

Well Sims was just drafted in 2012 and he's a HS kid. So he's only had 2 years of professional ball but he's been unreal in those 2 years and has not pitched above high-A ball yet. I think we're looking at Sims in 2016 at the earliest.

 

[nsacpi]

Sims will probably enter our rotation in 2016. Next year is too much of a rush considering he pitched in Rome last year. I think we'll have the same rotation in 2015, with Medlen departing via free agency after that season, which will open a spot up for Sims.

 

[zitothebrave]

Medlen will go if Salaries get tight (whch may happen with extensions if they happen) He's the most expendable big cost player we have. I'm sure it will sting and the Braves won't want to do it, but that's unfortunately what you have to do in baseball. Trade away good players. Though we'll have to see. My hope is that we get an expanded budget next year, with it being the last year for Jason, Justin, Medlen, and Venters we have the end of our core and hopefully we get a slight increase to keep them around as well as keep Kimbrel and co around as well.

But I'd trade Medlen before Kimbrel this offseason.

 

[AUTiger7222]

I agree. Trade Medlen before Kimbrel. The return for Meds would be greater too because of him being a starting pitcher.

 

[nsacpi]

I see some people complaining about the lack of moves and I wanted to show them why that is. Its because they have 0 money to spend beyond 2014. We may not even be able to afford to keep the same team together.

This is what I have projected for 2015

Kris Medlen 09.0
Mike Minor 07.0
Julio Teheran 00.5
Brandon Beachy 02.0
Alex Wood 00.5

Craig Kimbrel 11.0
Jordan Walden 03.0
Johnny Venters 02.0
David Carpenter 01.0
Luis Avilan 00.5
Anthony Varvaro 00.5
David Hale 00.5

Evan Gattis 00.5
Christian Bethancourt 00.5

Freddie Freeman 09.0
Dan Struggla 13.2
Andrelton Simmons 00.5
Chris Johnson 07.5
Tyler Pastornicky 00.5
Ramiro Pena 01.0
Terd Burglar 00.5

Jason Heyward 09.0
Justin Upton 14.7
Bad Job Upton 15.0

Obviously no way to tell 100% on the arbitration figures but they shouldnt be far off. This roster would come out to 110.9 million. Now after this year Heyward/Medlen/JUpton/Uggla/Venters are free agents which would be 51.9 million off the books which should be enough to re-sign Heyward and JUpton. I assume they let Medlen/Venters leave because we have cheaper alternatives.

So as you can see we would likely need to raise payroll to 110 million just to keep the roster we have now. If the payroll doesnt go up from 100 million which is the supposed payroll right now then they could trade one or more of Kimbrel/Medlen/Johnson/Walden before the 2015 season.

It is worth comparing Cajun's numbers for Kimbrel, Freeman, Teheran and Heyward with what they will be paid in 2015 under the deals they've signed.

Kimbrel is due 9M versus Cajun's assumption of 11M.
Freeman is due 8.5M versus Cajun's assumption of 9.0M
Heyward is due 8.6M versus the assumption of 9.0M
Teheran is due 1.0M verus the assumption of 0.5M.

So net the deals reduce 2015 payroll by about 2.4M. The main intent is to provide cost certainty and extend the players beyond their arb years at a reasonable price. But easing the 2015 "budget crunch" is a nice by-product of these moves.