The Biden Presidency
- Thread starter The Tariff King
- Start date
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
I'm curious what your reasoning is for this.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
I don't think meat is in danger of becoming scarce as long as we have hogs and chickens. Both of them breed like rabbits and can feed themselves anywhere outside of a desert. Just cancel the ability of HOAs to ban those animals and we'll have a national surplus.
Unless we're talking about some kind of government imposed artificial shortage. This isn't a wish list of the Left item I've heard about yet, but I assume that's what where this is coming from?
sturg33
I
Happy to defend the hill of liberty against tyrants like you.
We went from legalize weed to ban tobacco real quick
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Ahhh. Sounds like I need to settle on a couple more acres than I originally intended and just grow my own.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
They just can't help themselves. Scratching the itch to buy votes with weed while scratching the authoritarian itch with a menthol ban.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Move to Humboldt County and start a pot farm. It is beautiful up there and you and the wife will come to love the counter culture! And pot farming is quite lucrative btw. A big business in that part of California. It long ago surpassed logging and wine production as the main engine of the local economy.
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
Lol
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
variants
international travel has been restricted for a while now...just tightening it up further with respect to India and Pakistan
Interesting.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
I came across this interview with Obama's data guru, David Shor, in the very left NY Magazine. His honesty was refreshing. Among other things, he confirms that the movement of blacks and Hispanics to the Republicans was not due to mail in ballots, as so many have wishfully proclaimed. The bigger takeaway for me was this part on the Dems hopes in the upco midterms, and the motivation for adding new states. As I said, his honesty is refreshing.
As a baseline, midterms are usually very bad for the party in power. In the past 70 years, the incumbent party has gained seats in the House and Senate maybe once or twice. The last one was in 2002. The regularity of how bad midterm environments are for the president’s party is one of the most striking findings in political science. Generally speaking, over the last 30 to 40 years, the party that controls the presidency gets about 47 percent of the vote nationwide. Add in the fact that the House already has a fairly substantial pro-Republican bias — the median House seat is something like three points to the right of the country overall — it means that in the base scenario, Democrats are headed for near-certain doom. If we replicate the GOP’s post-9/11, 2002 midterm performance, we have a chance. If we replicate the second-best presidential-party midterm from the past 40 years, we lose.
The good news is that there’s a strong case for thinking this time might be different. I’m not a macroeconomist, but it seems like Joe Biden might preside over a post-corona economic boom. Already, Biden’s approval rating is very strong. The best predictor of how a midterm is going to shake out is how popular the president is. So, for now, everything looks about as good as you could hope for.
But we have no margin for error. If we conduct ourselves the way we did after 2008, we’re definitely going to lose. And due to the way that our electoral system works, we really could be locked out of power for a very long time, just like we were after 2010. So that means the need for messaging discipline is stronger than ever. But keeping the national conversation focused around popular economic issues probably won’t be enough. Since the maps in the House of Representatives are so biased against us, if we don’t pass a redistricting reform, our chance of keeping the House is very low. And then the Senate is even more biased against us than the House. So, it’s also very important that we add as many states as we can. Currently, even if we have an exceptionally good midterm, the most likely outcome is that we lose one or two Senate seats. And then, going into 2024, we have something like seven or eight Democrats who are in states that are more Republican than the country overall. Basically, we have this small window right now to pass redistricting reform and create states. And if we don’t use this window, we will almost certainly lose control of the federal government and not be in a position to pass laws again potentially for a decade. In terms of putting numbers on things, I think that if we implemented D.C. and Puerto Rican statehood and passed redistricting reform, that would roughly triple our chance of holding the House in 2022 and roughly the same in the Senate. The fact that it’s possible to triple those odds is a testament to how bleak the baseline case is. So we need to pass those reforms and we need Biden to remain popular. If his approval rating is below 50 by the end of the year, we’re probably ****ed.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...autopsy-hispanic-vote-midterms-trump-gop.html
As a baseline, midterms are usually very bad for the party in power. In the past 70 years, the incumbent party has gained seats in the House and Senate maybe once or twice. The last one was in 2002. The regularity of how bad midterm environments are for the president’s party is one of the most striking findings in political science. Generally speaking, over the last 30 to 40 years, the party that controls the presidency gets about 47 percent of the vote nationwide. Add in the fact that the House already has a fairly substantial pro-Republican bias — the median House seat is something like three points to the right of the country overall — it means that in the base scenario, Democrats are headed for near-certain doom. If we replicate the GOP’s post-9/11, 2002 midterm performance, we have a chance. If we replicate the second-best presidential-party midterm from the past 40 years, we lose.
The good news is that there’s a strong case for thinking this time might be different. I’m not a macroeconomist, but it seems like Joe Biden might preside over a post-corona economic boom. Already, Biden’s approval rating is very strong. The best predictor of how a midterm is going to shake out is how popular the president is. So, for now, everything looks about as good as you could hope for.
But we have no margin for error. If we conduct ourselves the way we did after 2008, we’re definitely going to lose. And due to the way that our electoral system works, we really could be locked out of power for a very long time, just like we were after 2010. So that means the need for messaging discipline is stronger than ever. But keeping the national conversation focused around popular economic issues probably won’t be enough. Since the maps in the House of Representatives are so biased against us, if we don’t pass a redistricting reform, our chance of keeping the House is very low. And then the Senate is even more biased against us than the House. So, it’s also very important that we add as many states as we can. Currently, even if we have an exceptionally good midterm, the most likely outcome is that we lose one or two Senate seats. And then, going into 2024, we have something like seven or eight Democrats who are in states that are more Republican than the country overall. Basically, we have this small window right now to pass redistricting reform and create states. And if we don’t use this window, we will almost certainly lose control of the federal government and not be in a position to pass laws again potentially for a decade. In terms of putting numbers on things, I think that if we implemented D.C. and Puerto Rican statehood and passed redistricting reform, that would roughly triple our chance of holding the House in 2022 and roughly the same in the Senate. The fact that it’s possible to triple those odds is a testament to how bleak the baseline case is. So we need to pass those reforms and we need Biden to remain popular. If his approval rating is below 50 by the end of the year, we’re probably ****ed.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...autopsy-hispanic-vote-midterms-trump-gop.html
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I predict the Dems will have to take their chances in 2022 and 2024 without new states or redistricting reform (whatever that is in terms of federal policy). Just no way those things will pass. I say that as someone who supports DC statehood. It aint happening. Not in the next four years.