Braves Will Be Even Better In 2014

[AUTiger7222]

So again I ask why no players can regress this season, but only Braves players improve from last season?

I never said any players couldn't regress. I have pointed out that Chris Johnson could easily regress to what he did in 2012, but still be a solid hitter. But if B.J. improves back to his 2012 form then those two would cancel each other out. My biggest fear is the bullpen. We know what Kimbrel will do. But bullpen pitchers can be so fickle year to year, especially a guy like Carpenter that comes out of nowhere to have the season that he did in 2013. Is he capable of doing that again? Is Avilan capable of doing that again? Will Venters come back to form? There are plenty of questions concerning the bullpen.

 

[gilesfan]

I never said Strasburg and Hanson were on the same level. I said Strasburg is a better version of Hanson. Those were my exact words. A guy with great stuff that struggles to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis because his control isn't that good.

A guy that walk 2.5 batters per 9 doesn't have good control?

His lack of pitching deep into games is bc they are very careful with him.

 

[zitothebrave]

Yeah, I agree Hanson was a very good young pitcher that showed a ton of potential. He was never at the level of Strasburg, which was my point.

Strasburg is better but not that much better. If you compare Hanson's 09-10 to Strasburgs 12-13 you're looking at

Hanson 7.87 K/9 2.78 BB/9 0.65 HR/9 78 ERA- 83 FIP-
Strasburg 10.20 K/9 2.73 BB/9 0.81 HR/9 80 ERA- 80 FIP-

Strasburg Ks more and walks a little less but Hanson was better at controlling the long ball for a small difference in FIP.

 

[AUTiger7222]

A guy that walk 2.5 batters per 9 doesn't have good control?

His lack of pitching deep into games is bc they are very careful with him.

How do I explain this in a way without being a total ass? There is no way you're a Braves fan because a Braves fan wouldn't downplay and make excuses for every good thing about the Braves and then totally slobber all over the Nationals nut sack constantly. Call me a blind homer if you will but at least I can admit to which team I'm a fan of. You really need to go to the damn Nationals board and GTFO here.

 

[zitothebrave]

McCann is indeed in decline.

2005-2009 - .293/.356/.497 (.853). 121 OPS+

2010-2013 - .257/.342/.444 (.786). 113 OPS+

That's a wonky sample. A 5 then a 4? Why not 3 3s?

Regardless look at his numbers by year since his last peak year (08)

09 - 119

10 - 124

11 - 122

12 - 87

13 - 115

He's basically been the same, some ups and downs but aside from his freakishly bad season he was in a 10 point range, that's not a decline.

 

[Heyward]

So again I ask why no players can regress this season, but only Braves players improve from last season?

Odds are some will regress.

Notaly CJ, bullpen, maybe Minor, Julio, Meds regress a little.

But interal help should negate that a little.

 

[gilesfan]

How do I explain this in a way without being a total ass? There is no way you're a Braves fan because a Braves fan wouldn't downplay and make excuses for every good thing about the Braves and then totally slobber all over the Nationals nut sack constantly. Call me a blind homer if you will but at least I can admit to which team I'm a fan of. You really need to go to the damn Nationals board and GTFO here.

I guess you can explain it by admitting you are wrong?

 

[thewupk]

McCann is indeed in decline.

2005-2009 - .293/.356/.497 (.853). 121 OPS+

2010-2013 - .257/.342/.444 (.786). 113 OPS+

OPS+ isn't the best stat to use. But his early years were boosted by unsustainable BABIPs in 2006 and 2008. Since 2009 his WRC+ ( a much better offensive stat to use) has been 119, 123, 122, 87, and 122. Of course 2013 he had the super low BABIP of 234 to cause his numbers to suffer. But his k rate, walk rate, and power have been consistent for 5 years. It's a pretty strong base line and what one should expect from him right now and into the foreseeable future.

 

[AUTiger7222]

That's a wonky sample. A 5 then a 4? Why not 3 3s?

Regardless look at his numbers by year since his last peak year (08)

09 - 119
10 - 124
11 - 122
12 - 87
13 - 115

He's basically been the same, some ups and downs but aside from his freakishly bad season he was in a 10 point range, that's not a decline.

I picked those sample sizes because there was a clear difference in his production from the 2009 season to the 2010 season. Look at the difference in AVG, OBP and SLG.

2005 - .278/.345/.400 (.745) - 95 OPS+
2006 - .333/.388/.572 (.961) - 143 OPS+
2007 - .270/.320/.452 (.772) - 99 OPS+
2008 - .301/.373/.523 (.896) - 135 OPS+
2009 - .281/.349/.486 (.834) - 119 OPS+
2010 - .269/.375/.453 (.828) - 124 OPS+
2011 - .270/.351/.466 (.817) - 122 OPS+
2012 - .230/.300/.399 (.698) - 87 OPS+
2013 - .256/.336/.461 (.796) - 115 OPS+

 

[zitothebrave]

Odds are some will regress.

Notaly CJ, bullpen, maybe Minor, Julio, Meds regress a little.

But interal help should negate that a little.

We have a lot of guys at risk for regression. But pretty much all of them aren't starters. The starters with the most risk are Freddie and Johnson. The entire bench is at risk though, Pena, Schafer, Laird all pulled ahead of projections. Who knows if they'll do it again.

As I see it being likely, barring injury. We'll see decline at C, 1B, and 3B. Freddie I think slips a little not much, Johnson's average should normalize a bit. We should see a slight improvement at 2B regardless of Uggla improving or if he's replaced by TLS. RF will be about a push, CF should be a huge improvement Bossman has to be better. LF should also see some improvement since we'll not have the defense of Gattis in LF.

Overall will we be better? Who knows. Cause injuries happen, freaky bad seasons (Mac in 2012) happen. So we'll just have to wait and see. We have a great team and I look forward to this season. Especially since our rotation has c ut their teeth in the post season now.

 

[AUTiger7222]

I guess you can explain it by admitting you are wrong?

I wasn't wrong though.

 

[thewupk]

I picked those sample sizes because there was a clear difference in his production from the 2009 season to the 2010 season. Look at the difference in AVG, OBP and SLG.

2005 - .278/.345/.400 (.745) - 95 OPS+
2006 - .333/.388/.572 (.961) - 143 OPS+
2007 - .270/.320/.452 (.772) - 99 OPS+
2008 - .301/.373/.523 (.896) - 135 OPS+
2009 - .281/.349/.486 (.834) - 119 OPS+
2010 - .269/.375/.453 (.828) - 124 OPS+
2011 - .270/.351/.466 (.817) - 122 OPS+
2012 - .230/.300/.399 (.698) - 87 OPS+
2013 - .256/.336/.461 (.796) - 115 OPS+

avg, obp, and slg are all directly related to his BABIP though which is wildly inconsistent for anybody. Take that variable out and you have these rates since 2009.

K%
2009: 15.1%
2010: 17.3%
2011: 16.9%
2012: 15.6%
2013: 16.4%

BB%
2009: 8.9%
2010: 13.1%
2011: 10.8%
2012: 9.0%
2013: 9.7%

ISO
2009: 205
2010: 184
2011: 195
2012: 169
2013: 205

All those are pretty consistent. Just your normal variation from year to year.

Now if you want to say Mac has declined from when he first came up. Sure you can say that. He had a higher average then thanks to a much lower K rate and a high BABIP a couple of years. But right now? No he's not in decline. He's pretty much been the same hitter for the last 5 years.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

I just can't shake the feeling this club is a 3rd or 4th place team. Gattis will flop, BJ repeats last year, and we lose at least one frontline guy for the entire year. This is going to be one of the worst years of Braves baseball in a long while.

 

[thewupk]

I just can't shake the feeling this club is a 3rd or 4th place team. Gattis will flop, BJ repeats last year, and we lose at least one frontline guy for the entire year. This is going to be one of the worst years of Braves baseball in a long while.

Even if that does happen. I don't see the Mets or Phillies being good enough to make us a 3rd or 4th place team.

 

[Gary82]

I just can't shake the feeling this club is a 3rd or 4th place team. Gattis will flop, BJ repeats last year, and we lose at least one frontline guy for the entire year. This is going to be one of the worst years of Braves baseball in a long while.

I can't see the Marlins, Phillies or Mets finishing second.

 

[Heyward]

I just can't shake the feeling this club is a 3rd or 4th place team. Gattis will flop, BJ repeats last year, and we lose at least one frontline guy for the entire year. This is going to be one of the worst years of Braves baseball in a long while.

Meh, odds are highly against that.

You can say the same with any team.

If the Mets had Harvey, possibly, without him for the full year, really doubt it.

Maybe, maybe Philly if all breaks right there.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

I have three factors that won that division last year.

1. The Nats overconfidence.
2. The hot start. The Braves had a block of games early in the year where they were 20-1. You don't lose divisions when you can do that.
3. We handled them head to head.

I can't see any of that repeating itself this year.

 

[Gary82]

I have three factors that won that division last year.

1. The Nats overconfidence.
2. The hot start. The Braves had a block of games early in the year where they were 20-1. You don't lose divisions when you can do that.
3. We handled them head to head.

I can't see any of that repeating itself this year.

The hot start definitely set the tone for the season.

 

[Mrs. Meta]

The hot start definitely set the tone for the season.

As well as the post season!

 

[cajunrevenge]

If I had told you heyward would hit below .200 until mid june, o'flaherty and venters would miss most of the season, bj would b the worst hitter in the majors, simmons would post a obp under .300, beachy would only make a handfull of starts and hudson would miss the final 2 months no one would have given the braves a chance. Lets not pretend the braves need a perfect storm of luck to win the division.