Whatever drop off in production from certain guys should be cancelled out by other guys improving.
The Braves won 96 games with Tim Hudson missing half the season. With Brian McCann missing April and doing absolutely nothing in the 2nd half of the season. With B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla having 2 of the worst seasons in MLB history. With Jason Heyward missing roughly 2 months of the season. With Justin Upton doing very little offensively after April. With Evan Gattis playing a lot in LF and being a major defensive liability out there. With Paul Maholm getting 26 or so starts and being pretty bad for the majority of those starts. With EOF pitching in only a few games. With Jonny Venters not throwing a single pitch in the regular season. With Brandon Beachy making only 5 starts. The Braves despite all of those issues still won 96 games. Logic tells us that the Braves should have fewer injuries in 2014 and therefore should get better overall production across the board just based on having less injuries. Logic tells us that there's no way B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla can be any worse in 2014 than they were in 2013. Logic tells us that Chris Johnson will suffer a major regression. But even if he does and hits "only" like he did in 2012 he would still be an asset offensively. Logic tells us that David Carpenter more than likely will also suffer a major regression. The year he had came out of nowhere like Johnson and unlike Johnson, Carpenter's previous track record before 2013 is spotty at best. I do really worry about him. Who knows if Freddie Freeman will regress or not? We don't know what his peak is as a hitter. Is it 2013? Is that his peak? Or could he be even better, as in hit for more power? We don't know. Although it was a very good sign when he went on a homerun bring in September and hit 6 long balls. It's a shame that didn't carry into the Dodgers series. Will Julio Teheran stay the same, regress or get better? We don't know because 2013 was his first full season in the majors. Will Mike Minor regress? I don't think so because if you look at his last 50 or so starts they're great and that's a big enough sample size to start gaining a feel for what he is capable of doing on a yearly basis. I think what Kris Medlen did was what his normal production is capable of being on a yearly basis. What will the Braves get from Evan Gattis? We're not sure. But even if he does what he did in 2013 that should be enough that the drop off from McCann wouldn't be enough to create a major hole in lost production. Even if that is the case, the improvement that we should get from B.J. Upton should make up for that difference between McCann and Gattis and make up for Johnson's expected regression.
The Braves are not 10 wins worse than they were last year and the Nationals aren't 10 wins better than they were last year. The Mets, Phillies and Marlins are all going to put horrible teams on the field so they're not even in the discussion. The Braves should win the NL East in 2014.
