Inferences to Draw from Recent Contracts

AUTiger7222 said:
I think the Braves can keep both Heyward and Justin. Payroll is clearly going up, how much? We don't know yet. But if it goes up into the $125-$130M range then we should be able to keep both. One of them will replace Uggla's AAV and then we had to the payroll a little bit more.
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I think it will have to be 140-145M to keep both. Unless you move someone else with a significant salary.

Just to run through some numbers, in 2017 we have commitments totaling 58M to Freeman, Kimbrel, Teheran and BJ.

Add about 50M if we want to keep both Heyward and Justin. So we are at 108. Minor will be making about 15. So up to 123M. It adds up fast. Simmons will be making some money by then, so will Gattis. Wood will be in his first year of arbitration.
 
nsacpi said:
I think it will have to be 140-145M to keep both. Unless you move someone else with a significant salary.

Just to run through some numbers, in 2017 we have commitments totaling 58M to Freeman, Kimbrel, Teheran and BJ.

Add about 50M if we want to keep both Heyward and Justin. So we are at 108. Minor will be making about 15. So up to 123M. It adds up fast. Simmons will be making some money by then, so will Gattis. Wood will be in his first year of arbitration.
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I don't think both Justin and Heyward are getting contracts between them to where they average out to $50M. That is a crazy number. I think Justin will get a deal that keeps him around $15M AAV and Heyward get's a deal that puts him around $22M AAV.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
I don't think both Justin and Heyward are getting contracts between them to where they average out to $50M. That is a crazy number. I think Justin will get a deal that keeps him around $15M AAV and Heyward get's a deal that puts him around $22M AAV.
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Hunter Pence just got five years at 18M year. Justin will clear that easily.

Heyward will likely get more than Freeman.
 
nsacpi said:
Hunter Pence just got five years at 18M year. Justin will clear that easily.

Heyward will likely get more than Freeman.
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Yes, I know what Hunter Pence got and that Justin is better than Pence. But I'm thinking from the logic that Justin wants to stay with the Braves and would be willing to take a little less to make it happen. At least I hope that ends up being the case.
 
thethe said:
Can't have Peraza at 3B. Need his defense at 2B to compensate for the fact he won't have a power bat. If TLS hits well then he might be flipped assuming Peraza progresses.
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That would be dumb. You'd be turfing Tommy before hitting arb. Now if you moved Tommy at arb 1 then moved Peraza over I could see that.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
Yes, I know what Hunter Pence got and that Justin is better than Pence. But I'm thinking from the logic that Justin wants to stay with the Braves and would be willing to take a little less to make it happen. At least I hope that ends up being the case.
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20M year will represents a discount from Justin. He will be one of the younger guys hitting free agency. You gotta be realistic. Small discounts. Like the ones we got from the guys we've signed so far.

Anyhow, even some discounts we'll need a payroll of at least 140M to keep both Justin and Heyward. I have doubts payroll will climb that fast even with the new ballpark. That's why I doubt we keep both.
 
nsacpi said:
20M year will represents a discount from Justin. He will be one of the younger guys hitting free agency. You gotta be realistic. Small discounts. Like the ones we got from the guys we've signed so far.

Anyhow, even some discounts we'll need a payroll of at least 140M to keep both Justin and Heyward. I have doubts payroll will climb that fast even with the new ballpark. That's why I doubt we keep both.
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Well I was trying to be realistic. How many guys in MLB history have had contracts with AAV of $25M?
 
AUTiger7222 said:
Well I was trying to be realistic. How many guys in MLB history have had contracts with AAV of $25M?
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Much older corner outfielders like Pence, Choo, Granderson and Beltran have gotten deals this off-season that suggest Heyward and Upton will be around 50M combined. Those guys are all signed deep into their declining years.
 
One of the main reasons I don't see both JUP and Heyward staying is because there is always a bat on the FA market to slot into LF. This year someone like Cruz could be had right now to fill the spot and could put up a 800+ OPS. No reason to shackle the team to a $150M+ contract just to have an 800 OPS in LF. I probably have the biggest mancrush on JUp of anyone on these boards, and even I can see that.
 
Enscheff said:
One of the main reasons I don't see both JUP and Heyward staying is because there is always a bat on the FA market to slot into LF. This year someone like Cruz could be had right now to fill the spot and could put up a 800+ OPS. No reason to shackle the team to a $150M+ contract just to have an 800 OPS in LF. I probably have the biggest mancrush on JUp of anyone on these boards, and even I can see that.
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Nelson Cruz has never done anything outside of Texas. Who was Nelson Crus before the Rangers got him? I'm sure the majority here, myself included, had never even heard of Nelson Cruz. Didn't he play for Milwaukee? What did he do there?
 
Enscheff said:
One of the main reasons I don't see both JUP and Heyward staying is because there is always a bat on the FA market to slot into LF. This year someone like Cruz could be had right now to fill the spot and could put up a 800+ OPS. No reason to shackle the team to a $150M+ contract just to have an 800 OPS in LF. I probably have the biggest mancrush on JUp of anyone on these boards, and even I can see that.
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Keeping Justin and Jason would be to have a RHB anchor in the lineup so we're not too lefty heavy.
 
According to this article by Mark Bowman all of the signing bonuses count against the 2014 payroll. With this in mind, and estimating all pre-arb players at $500K, Ramiro Pena at $600K (not knowing exactly what he got from the Braves to avoid arbitration from the Braves this year), and not factoring in Freddy Garcia because there's no guarantee that he makes the team, I've got the Braves payroll number for 2014 at just over $101.6M. Of course there are some guys listed there like Christian Bethancourt and Todd Cunningham that won't be on the opening day roster. We'll have a better indicator of knowing what the Braves payroll is once we see the 25 man roster to know which pre-arb players will be on the roster.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
Nelson Cruz has never done anything outside of Texas. Who was Nelson Crus before the Rangers got him? I'm sure the majority here, myself included, had never even heard of Nelson Cruz. Didn't he play for Milwaukee? What did he do there?
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And before the steroids.
Don't forget the steroids.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
According to this article by Mark Bowman all of the signing bonuses count against the 2014 payroll. With this in mind, and estimating all pre-arb players at $500K, Ramiro Pena at $600K (not knowing exactly what he got from the Braves to avoid arbitration from the Braves this year), and not factoring in Freddy Garcia because there's no guarantee that he makes the team, I've got the Braves payroll number for 2014 at just over $101.6M. Of course there are some guys listed there like Christian Bethancourt and Todd Cunningham that won't be on the opening day roster. We'll have a better indicator of knowing what the Braves payroll is once we see the 25 man roster to know which pre-arb players will be on the roster.
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Doing that with the signing bonuses lessens the load slightly in later years. Which is why they did what they did with Simmons deal. They are paying more in the early years to lessen the last two years. Makes sense when you got money to burn so to speak right now before everyone gets real expensive.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
According to this article by Mark Bowman all of the signing bonuses count against the 2014 payroll. With this in mind, and estimating all pre-arb players at $500K, Ramiro Pena at $600K (not knowing exactly what he got from the Braves to avoid arbitration from the Braves this year), and not factoring in Freddy Garcia because there's no guarantee that he makes the team, I've got the Braves payroll number for 2014 at just over $101.6M. Of course there are some guys listed there like Christian Bethancourt and Todd Cunningham that won't be on the opening day roster. We'll have a better indicator of knowing what the Braves payroll is once we see the 25 man roster to know which pre-arb players will be on the roster.
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Yeah, I think we have crossed the $100M mark for the 2014 opening day payroll. At the same time Wren has taken care to keep the numbers down in 2015. We still have a budget crunch in 2015 where there isn't much wiggle room even if the budget rises to 110-115M.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
According to this article by Mark Bowman all of the signing bonuses count against the 2014 payroll. With this in mind, and estimating all pre-arb players at $500K, Ramiro Pena at $600K (not knowing exactly what he got from the Braves to avoid arbitration from the Braves this year), and not factoring in Freddy Garcia because there's no guarantee that he makes the team, I've got the Braves payroll number for 2014 at just over $101.6M. Of course there are some guys listed there like Christian Bethancourt and Todd Cunningham that won't be on the opening day roster. We'll have a better indicator of knowing what the Braves payroll is once we see the 25 man roster to know which pre-arb players will be on the roster.
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Where does it say that all the signing bonuses count only towards our 2014 payroll? Usually they're prorated over the length of the contract.
 
keithlaw said:
Where does it say that all the signing bonuses count only towards our 2014 payroll? Usually they're prorated over the length of the contract.
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The article I posted is only talking about the 2014 payroll. The reason each signing bonus is mentioned is because it's saying that they are applied to this year's payroll. Here's just one example taken from the article.

Freeman's eight-year, $135 million contract calls for him to receive a $5.125 million salary and all of his $2.875 million signing bonus this year.
 
thewupk said:
Doing that with the signing bonuses lessens the load slightly in later years. Which is why they did what they did with Simmons deal. They are paying more in the early years to lessen the last two years. Makes sense when you got money to burn so to speak right now before everyone gets real expensive.
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nsacpi said:
Yeah, I think we have crossed the $100M mark for the 2014 opening day payroll. At the same time Wren has taken care to keep the numbers down in 2015. We still have a budget crunch in 2015 where there isn't much wiggle room even if the budget rises to 110-115M.
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Yep.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
The article I posted is only talking about the 2014 payroll. The reason each signing bonus is mentioned is because it's saying that they are applied to this year's payroll. Here's just one example taken from the article.

Freeman's eight-year, $135 million contract calls for him to receive a $5.125 million salary and all of his $2.875 million signing bonus this year.
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Bowman says that we're going to spend "slightly more than $4 million in signing bonuses" this year but the bonuses on the 5 extensions alone add up to $6.875 million. Plus we have the prorated portion of BJ's and Uggla's bonuses on the books. We probably paid those guys the bonuses up front but put them on the books as if they're prorated over the length of the contract.
 
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