Around Baseball Offseason Edition - Derek Jeter will retire at seasons end

AUTiger7222 said:
Baltimore has had a bad offseason. They got good deals on Jimenez and Cruz but that's all they've done. They haven't fixed the bullpen and they still don't have enough starting pitching.
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Don't forget that the O's have even less payroll flexibility than the Braves do. And have just reeled off two winning seasons after over a decade of utter failures. Rome wasn't built in a day -- their starting lineup is extremely solid (and young), and Ubaldo and Yoon (possibly Santana) could really solidify their pitching staff. Bullpens are the easiest component of a MLB team to build, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.
 
Hawk said:
Don't forget that the O's have even less payroll flexibility than the Braves do. And have just reeled off two winning seasons after over a decade of utter failures. Rome wasn't built in a day -- their starting lineup is extremely solid (and young), and Ubaldo and Yoon (possibly Santana) could really solidify their pitching staff. Bullpens are the easiest component of an MLB team to build, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.
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Plus they can trade for Kimbrel when we fall out of contention.
 
Hawk said:
Cruz was not a market value signing. He received multiple 2/3 year offers (was originally looking for $18MM per season) but took a 1 year pact with Baltimore at a discount presumably to rebuild value (a risky proposition at 33).



The Orioles needed to make these kind of acquisitions to be relevant in their division -- rumor is that they are in on Ervin Santana too. Stupendous offseason for them, so far. I pitied the team when they named Dan Duquette GM but he's made some quality moves since taking over.
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How much per year for those 2/3 year offers? He can be asking for 18 per year all he wants but he's not the player he showed in 09 and 10. He's a goodish hitter that is a bad base runner and defender. The market for those type of players aren't that great. Especially when a draft pick is involved.

Beltran for example only got 15 million a year and he's been a 3 WAR player the last year.
 
nsacpi said:
Looks like they will test the proposition about needing a proven closer. The two WS teams last year lost their closers early on and did fine.
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Well closer wasn't the only spot in their pen last year that was an issue. Their pitching staff as a whole was a mess last year.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
No team is perfect. Baltimore very easily could have one of the best offense in the American League. Evan Meek if he can get healthy can help their bullpen out. Just a few seasons ago he was pretty solid for Pittsburgh and was an all star that same season. Ubaldo helps solidify a decent rotation as well. Nothing special, but they are far from being bad.
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I never said they were a bad team. I said they've had a bad offseason. They have a great offense. I love their offense. But I don't think they have enough pitching. I think they're going to rack up 80-85 wins but fall short of making one of the WC spots.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
I never said they were a bad team. I said they've had a bad offseason. They have a great offense. I love their offense. But I don't think they have enough pitching. I think they're going to rack up 80-85 wins but fall short of making one of the WC spots.
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I'd be shocked if the Orioles didn't go 150-12 this season.

They are the Braves of AL I believe. Their rotation isn't up to par and obviously neither is their closer. 86-90 wins is what I expect and a playoff team as well. Things can change and we all know summer will bring potential starting pitching help as well.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
Wager>? What are you talking about dude? If you think the O's are a great team that's going to the playoffs then good for you. I think they end up 80-85 wins again this year, won 83 last year.
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Yes a wager. Just to keep things interesting and for fun as well.
 
thewupk said:
How much per year for those 2/3 year offers? He can be asking for 18 per year all he wants but he's not the player he showed in 09 and 10. He's a goodish hitter that is a bad base runner and defender. The market for those type of players aren't that great. Especially when a draft pick is involved.

Beltran for example only got 15 million a year and he's been a 3 WAR player the last year.
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A player's worth does not entirely define his market value ... in some cases, we've actually seen it be almost completely disregarded.

Chris Young got $7.5MM this year and is inarguably an inferior player to Cruz. Had the Mets waited to sign him until this point in the offseason do you think he would have received the same amount?

The market for outfielders (and players, in general) at this point in the offseason is waning. The Orioles got a 45% discount on Cruz's sticker price. That's $2 million cheaper than the Rangers gave Berkman (aged 37) for 256 platoon ABs last season.
 
Some data on projected WAR (from Steamer) and ages for the 2014 of corner outfield free agents:

Granderson 2.0 33
Beltran 2.0 37
Chris Young 1.5 30
Byrd 0.9 36
Nelson Cruz 1.5 33

Chris Young is the closest comp to Cruz. Beltran and Granderson are being overpaid if you believe the Steamer projections. The 2014 projections for those two look a bit low to me. I think there is more of a gap between those two and the other 3.
 
Hawk said:
A player's worth does not entirely define his market value ... in some cases, we've actually seen it be almost completely disregarded.

Chris Young got $7.5MM this year and is inarguably an inferior player to Cruz. Had the Mets waited to sign him until this point in the offseason do you think he would have received the same amount?

The market for outfielders (and players, in general) at this point in the offseason is waning. The Orioles got a 45% discount on Cruz's sticker price. That's $2 million cheaper than the Rangers gave Berkman (aged 37) for 256 platoon ABs last season.
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Young also didn't have the price tag of losing a draft pick either. And he was worth 2.5 WAR in 12 and 0.5 in 13. The past two seasons Young and Cruz have had the same value. I just think you overstate Cruz's value.
 
Hawk said:
A player's worth does not entirely define his market value ... in some cases, we've actually seen it be almost completely disregarded.

Chris Young got $7.5MM this year and is inarguably an inferior player to Cruz. Had the Mets waited to sign him until this point in the offseason do you think he would have received the same amount?

The market for outfielders (and players, in general) at this point in the offseason is waning. The Orioles got a 45% discount on Cruz's sticker price. That's $2 million cheaper than the Rangers gave Berkman (aged 37) for 256 platoon ABs last season.
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What Cruz has over Young offensively is pretty much wiped out by what Young has over Cruz defensively.
 
thewupk said:
Young also didn't have the price tag of losing a draft pick either. And he was worth 2.5 WAR in 12 and 0.5 in 13. The past two seasons Young and Cruz have had the same value. I just think you overstate Cruz's value.
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Good point about the draft pick ... certainly doesn't seem like Baltimore cares much about their 2014 draft though.

I have to say that I don't find WAR useful for monetary evaluation of players.

Cruz dealt with a lot off the field the past two years but still managed to put up pretty decent numbers. I think the signing will pay dividends for the Orioles.
 
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