Talkin' 'bout all extensions thread

Russ2dollas said:
Agree.

I feel like Minor is really good but replaceable. He just seems like the kind of guy the Braves produce consistently. IF he wants to do a team friendly deal, then great. Otherwise I think I'd go through Arb with him.

Extending pitchers is a risk. As good as CK is, that makes me really nervous. Tehran I feel better about b/c of his chances to be an ace or really good 2.

I'd rather save money for Hewyard and potentially JUp (extend through his Bro's contract).

You can't extend everyone, and I feel the best about extending the position guys. They are less risky investments and they produced less frequently by the Braves.
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Minor is hardly replaceable, he's our best lefty since Glavine.

I would agree they dont have to extend him now unless it was uber-team friendly, but wouldnt be the end of the world if they bought out 2-3 FA years.
 
I have trouble stomaching fan-run publications, but Baseball Prospectus published an interview with John Hart yesterday that is worthy of reflection:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22868

Below are a few notable blurbs relating specifically to the Braves, but the interview goes into great length on John's philosophies about player development and the creativity required to retain the 'core' in today's market. Worth the read.

BP: You once said that one of the things you had learned as a GM was that "Stability leads to flexibility." You mean that once you have your core locked up, you can count on that amount of money being assigned to that amount of production, and then you can work around that?

JH: It really does. Every organization has a different mindset. I had to be a little more nimble in Cleveland. We maybe traded a few of our guys to gather payroll flexibility in certain points, but the idea of going in is that we can manage this payroll and this roster, and that will also allow us the ability to be creative if we find a free agent that we like. They're our core players, they're our better players and we know what we're paying them. And that does lead to stability.

And I think in this case, every guy that’s been signed here, these are players that you're looking to be stable with and build around them. That gives you the ability to do it, and quite frankly, I think that was a little bit of the mindset as to why these players wanted to sign here. I think Frank did a great job. His strategy was Freeman one, along with Heyward. I think Kimbrel, you read some of his quotes, it was like, ‘This makes sense to me because I know who I'm going to be with. This is showing me, number one that the Braves believe in me, and number two we're going to have a core of good players that are going to grow together.’

BL: Once you get the first deal done, you can use that to convince the next guy that he should stick around.

JH: That's exactly right. I'm going to say this. I think in the case of John and Frank, they watched what happened when McCann hit free agency. They watched Hudson get overpaid. I'm sure they looked up and said, "Nuh-uh, not with this young core..."
 
Always really like John Hart, thought he did a great job with the resources he had available in Cleveland. Didn't do that great of a job in Texas, but that ownership situation was a huge mess, and prompted him IMO to make some moves that he probably shouldn't have done to win now.

I always thought Johns best asset was his ability to evaluate talent, especially hitters.
 
Heyward said:
Minor is hardly replaceable, he's our best lefty since Glavine.

I would agree they dont have to extend him now unless it was uber-team friendly, but wouldnt be the end of the world if they bought out 2-3 FA years.
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Replaceable...prob not. But I think we could get close. If we have to give somewhere, I'd give on pitchers who are not elite. IMO Minor is very good, but he's not sniffing elite.

But you're right about him being a lefty. If he was a righty then he prob is more replaceable.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Replaceable...prob not. But I think we could get close. If we have to give somewhere, I'd give on pitchers who are not elite. IMO Minor is very good, but he's not sniffing elite.

But you're right about him being a lefty. If he was a righty then he prob is more replaceable.
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Truth be told, there's like 7-10 at most "elite" pitchers.

Maybe he wont get into the Kershaw/Verlander/Felix tier but he could be in the 12-15 range within a few years.

The performance in the playoffs was pretty damn gutsy and showed the talent Mike has.

He's not replaceable by any stretch, not by a wide margin.
 
Heyward said:
Truth be told, there's like 7-10 at most "elite" pitchers.

Maybe he wont get into the Kershaw/Verlander/Felix tier but he could be in the 12-15 range within a few years.

The performance in the playoffs was pretty damn gutsy and showed the talent Mike has.

He's not replaceable by any stretch, not by a wide margin.
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No just that. Against NL playoff teams Minor posted a 5-0 record with an ERA under 2. Dude raises up his level in big games.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?
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I think Minor will sustain a 3.5 WAR per season level over the next five or six years if he stays health. Given injury risks, in the open market that needs to be discounted about 10%, so his market price would be that of a 3 WAR pitcher. At 6M per WAR, his market price is 18M/year.

The way arbitration works, this means he makes 3.85M in 2014, 7M in 2015, 12 M in 2016, 15M in 2017 if he goes to arbitration every year. A total of about 38 M in 4 arb years. If we want to pay for 2 free agent years they are worth 18M per year.

Let's say we want to sign him for 2015-2019, a five year extension. His market value those five years are 7M, 12M, 15M, 18M, 18M or a total of 70M.

The guys we have signed so far have given us a discount equivalent to about half a win per year. I think we are at the point where we can ask for a bigger discount. Say the equivalent of a win per year or 30M over five years. So if Minor's reps agree to 40M over the 2015-2019 period, I'd do it. That's the kind of discount I would consider in his case.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
My first offer would be 6 years for $90M and go negotiate from there. That's an AAV of $15M per season.
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Way too high. We're talking zero discount here. What you are proposing is what he would get if he went to arbitration each year and then hit free agency.
 
nsacpi said:
Way too high. We're talking zero discount here. What you are proposing is what he would get if he went to arbitration each year and then hit free agency.
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Well I was trying to be realistic with what he might agree to considering the deal Homer Bailey just got.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?
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Something realistically after this year would be 5/68 if he posts another 3-4 WAR season in 2014.

2015: 27 - 7.5
2016: 28 - 10.5
2017: 29 - 14.5
2018: 30 - 16.5
2019: 31 - 17
2020: 32 - 17 (option) 2 buyout

It sucks that Minor is a super 2. That jacks his arby prices up quite a bit. Of course what I suggested be undershooting it if salaries continue to inflate at the rate their going.
 
thewupk said:
Something realistically after this year would be 5/68 if he posts another 3-4 WAR season in 2014.

2015: 27 - 7.5

2016: 28 - 10.5

2017: 29 - 14.5

2018: 30 - 16.5

2019: 31 - 17

2020: 32 - 17 (option) 2 buyout

It sucks that Minor is a super 2. That jacks his arby prices up quite a bit. Of course what I suggested be undershooting it if salaries continue to inflate at the rate their going.
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There's no way in heck I'd offer near that much.
 
skillet said:
There's no way in heck I'd offer near that much.
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Then you aren't going to sign him. If Minor duplicates his 2013 year then he worth a lot more then 12-13 million in his free agency years. Bailey just got 19 million for his free agency years. He's also just one year from hitting free agency. Minor would be 3 years so you would pay a tad bit less in his free agency years.
 
thewupk said:
Then you aren't going to sign him. If Minor duplicates his 2013 year then he worth a lot more then 12-13 million in his free agency years. Bailey just got 19 million for his free agency years. He's also just one year from hitting free agency. Minor would be 3 years so you would pay a tad bit less in his free agency years.
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Then I wouldn't sign him. There's no reason at this point, when we still have him under control for 4 more years, to offer him a premium, best case scenario for him deal at this stage. Why would we do that?
 
skillet said:
Then I wouldn't sign him. There's no reason at this point, when we still have him under control for 4 more years, to offer him a premium, best case scenario for him deal at this stage. Why would we do that?
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To keep him long term. You aren't going to be able to low ball players like that anymore. Look at the contract Freeman got. It's exactly like this what I proposed for Minor. To get any sort of real discount on a players free agency years you will need to sign them a year or two after they have been in the majors like we did with Julio and Simmons.

And if you let him go year to year then there is virtually no way to keep him long term without paying then current market value which will likely be higher.
 
thewupk said:
Something realistically after this year would be 5/68 if he posts another 3-4 WAR season in 2014.

2015: 27 - 7.5
2016: 28 - 10.5
2017: 29 - 14.5
2018: 30 - 16.5
2019: 31 - 17
2020: 32 - 17 (option) 2 buyout

It sucks that Minor is a super 2. That jacks his arby prices up quite a bit. Of course what I suggested be undershooting it if salaries continue to inflate at the rate their going.
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Also too high. Though the option for 2020 provides some value.
 
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