MLB.com's New Top 100 Prospects List

[clvclv]

Much less interested in these lists than I used to be. Great for discussion, but the rankers (all of them - not just Callis and Mayo) have their own leanings/flaws/reasoning for not dropping guys they've ranked in the past.

They're a nice guide for folks that aren't necessarily the most rabid fans, but there are always more than a few who should make lists that don't (or should be ranked higher) because of prospect fatigue. etc..

As others have pointed out plenty of times before, once you get outside of the Top 10-15 these lists would be much better if they were grouped into Tiers rather than #16-#100 since you can usually just pick any handful of them without much of a reason one is ranked higher than another.

 

[rico43]

1) Muller was never good enough to be on this list as a prospect

2) He is still eligible to be on these lists

Also, he was having an extended stay in the majors while this was being compiled. The list might not be considering guys who stuck even for a little while.

 

[Carp]

I don’t think he was on, and didn’t do anything ground breaking in AAA to get put there

Pretty strong effort in the majors and minors this year. Was already at 45+ FV coming into the season. I don't see how his value is anything but up.

 

[thewupk]

Pretty strong effort in the majors and minors this year. Was already at 45+ FV coming into the season. I don't see how his value is anything but up.

Fangraphs disagrees and dropped him to 45. I'm guessing the bad walk rate since he hit AA is a big damaging factor

 

[Russ2dollas]

Fangraphs disagrees and dropped him to 45. I'm guessing the bad walk rate since he hit AA is a big damaging factor

walk rate and low velocity.

I don't see a starter at all from Muller. I saw a lucky patch. I think he's a high leverage RP if he can get back to throwing 96+ and can control it at all.

 

[thewupk]

walk rate and low velocity.

I don't see a starter at all from Muller. I saw a lucky patch. I think he's a high leverage RP if he can get back to throwing 96+ and can control it at all.

I think that is the most likely path of success for him

 

[clvclv]

Fangraphs disagrees and dropped him to 45. I'm guessing the bad walk rate since he hit AA is a big damaging factor

FWIW their values change across the board pretty regularly. So much so that they currently have Riley as a 45 hit tool. How long ago was that different?

It's great that they're more flexible and open to adjusting their rankings than the other pundits as they get more info and data points, but this also makes their rankings finicky. All these kids are lottery tickets, and FG drops the ones making big changes like hot potatoes while they're making those changes. While a lot of these kids deserve to be dinged a bit, FG worshippers sure do tend to give up on a lot of players really quickly and at much earlier points in their development.

 

[50PoundHead]

walk rate and low velocity.

I don't see a starter at all from Muller. I saw a lucky patch. I think he's a high leverage RP if he can get back to throwing 96+ and can control it at all.

If he can throw 96+ and control it, he'll be fine as a mid-to-back of the rotation guy. I hesitate to trust reports on velocities in the minors, but he supposedly was hitting the high-90s consistently at the alternate site last year. He's a big kid and he may have troubles--like many big pitchers do--repeating his mechanics consistently. If his velocity doesn't return, he probably doesn't have much of a future as either a starter or reliever.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I just wish Muller would slow down a bit. Four seconds between pitches is wearing.

 

[50PoundHead]

I just wish Muller would slow down a bit. Four seconds between pitches is wearing.

Head to the refrigerator and by the time you get back, the inning's over.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Head to the refrigerator and by the time you get back, the inning's over.

My bladder is too weak for that many beers.

 

[Russ2dollas]

If he can throw 96+ and control it, he'll be fine as a mid-to-back of the rotation guy. I hesitate to trust reports on velocities in the minors, but he supposedly was hitting the high-90s consistently at the alternate site last year. He's a big kid and he may have troubles--like many big pitchers do--repeating his mechanics consistently. If his velocity doesn't return, he probably doesn't have much of a future as either a starter or reliever.

he said he slowed it down for control.

The thought is that it's easier to repeat mechanics for an inning vs 6. Also you don't have to pace yourself as a RP. So if he goes RP, he can rip it back up to 96.

 

[50PoundHead]

he said he slowed it down for control.

The thought is that it's easier to repeat mechanics for an inning vs 6. Also you don't have to pace yourself as a RP. So if he goes RP, he can rip it back up to 96.

He can also walk the bases load consistently at 96 as a reliever.

This is a very clumsy comparison and I doubt we'll ever see Muller in the Hall of Fame, but Randy Johnson never had a WHIP below 1.300 until he was 29 and in his fifth season. Muller doesn't throw as hard as Johnson did and hitters handle the fastball better now than they did then. But the similarity is that Johnson and Muller are both big guys and it can take a few seasons to get everything moving consistently in the same direction. I keep working Muller as a starter until it is completely obvious that he can't succeed in that role. That might take another year in AAA and living on the Gwinnett/Atlanta shuttle.