Around the League - 2021 Szn

Carp said:
Dude, it doesn't matter if the injuries are flukey or not. Injuries are injuries, and they affect his ability to stay healthy going forward. Injuries linger. That's the nature of injuries.

Soroka re-tore his achilles walking in the parking lot. Does that mean we should expect him to remain completely healthy once he returns?
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This. Past injuries tend to make future ones more likely.

Also fluky injuries have a way of happening to aging players.

Saying someone thew 200 innings at 30 means he will throw 200 Innings at 33, 34, and 35 makes little sense.

Especially when the 200 is an outlier.
 
Southcack77 said:
This. Past injuries tend to make future ones more likely.

Also fluky injuries have a way of happening to aging players.

Saying someone thew 200 innings at 30 means he will throw 200 Innings at 33, 34, and 35 makes little sense.

Especially when the 200 is an outlier.
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How is the 200 the outlier based on his career?

He was pitching at 200 IP rates with no problem until fluke injuries. Not like he has getting shelled and then had to be removed because of injuries.
 
Since coming back from an IL stint Bumgarner now has 5 straight starts where he only failed to go 7 innings once (6.2 IP).

Acting like he is on this massive decline is some kind of take....
 
thethe said:
I think we could get him for something around that but I would even pay a bit more since we have the flexibility and we can then save depth for other moves.

I also see that price per WAR is 8 a year now. So I could go for 3/32 all the way to 3/36 if the D-Backs are willing to let go of a prospect.

Just like bad teams in the NBA do I'm willing to take money and get value back. We have the money. Lets use it.
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He's owed 3/60m.

You also said you didn't think the D-Backs should pay half his salary. That's part of the reason why there was push back.

you've hedged.

I would still rather give single year deals to vets in this price range than commit to Bumgarner for three seasons at that number.
 
thethe said:
Since coming back from an IL stint Bumgarner now has 5 straight starts where he only failed to go 7 innings once (6.2 IP).

Acting like he is on this massive decline is some kind of take....
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He's a sightly above average pitcher right now. I think most people are willing to accept that. But his stuff has been on decline for years now (injury related or not, decline is decline).

Expecting that trend to change as he moves towards his mid 30's isn't very smart.
 
thethe said:
How is the 200 the outlier based on his career?

He was pitching at 200 IP rates with no problem until fluke injuries. Not like he has getting shelled and then had to be removed because of injuries.
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Because he's only done it once in the last 5 years.

I don't know what to tell you about fluke injuries. They're just injuries.

I can't say what is and what isn't use related, but shoulder problems for aging pitchers aren't fluky.
 
Southcack77 said:
He's owed 3/60m.

You also said you didn't think the D-Backs should pay half his salary. That's part of the reason why there was push back.

you've hedged.

I would still rather give single year deals to vets in this price range than commit to Bumgarner for three seasons at that number.
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When I said that it was because I thought the contract was straighlined. Since learning it wasn't then I changed my stance. I'd still take him at 100% of his value as long as the D-Backs gave us one of their best prospects. I personally think Bumgarner has at least 6 WAR the next 3 seasons. Hold me to that claim.
 
thethe said:
I mean Smyly was basically an afterthought prior to August of last year so I think your analogy is WAY off.
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I don't think so. I just don't see the risk/reward of Bumgardner making sense.

Maybe he's a 2 WAR pitcher. Maybe. But he's got a ton of miles on a mid 30s arm. More likely looking at a 3-4 WAR over the 3 year contract.

If Liberty were not artifically capping the salary, then maybe you get him. Maybe he's a playoff arm. But if we have the payrolls we are likely to have, I'm not putting 10+ million in Bumgardner. I'd rather use that money to upgrade my studs. I'd want to get our top 3 starters that will pitch in playoff series upgraded. Or impact bats.

I don't see the 4th or 5th starters being the thing that keeps the Braves from winning playoff series. We seem to be able to find a way. We keep drafting college pitchers. We seem to find a 1 year vet every year.

I don't see any reason to add a 3 year commitment to anyone who isn't a massive upgrade.
 
Southcack77 said:
Because he's only done it once in the last 5 years.

I don't know what to tell you about fluke injuries. They're just injuries.

I can't say what is and what isn't use related, but shoulder problems for aging pitchers aren't fluky.
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Yeah - I'm not talking about this years issue but pitchers do get inflammation often and take rests so that isn't uncommon. Definitely something to monitor. What we do know is that he has been a borderline #2 starter since he has come back though.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I don't think so. I just don't see the risk/reward of Bumgardner making sense.

Maybe he's a 2 WAR pitcher. Maybe. But he's got a ton of miles on a mid 30s arm. More likely looking at a 3-4 WAR over the 3 year contract.

If Liberty were not artifically capping the salary, then maybe you get him. Maybe he's a playoff arm. But if we have the payrolls we are likely to have, I'm not putting 10+ million in Bumgardner. I'd rather use that money to upgrade my studs. I'd want to get our top 3 starters that will pitch in playoff series upgraded. Or impact bats.

I don't see the 4th or 5th starters being the thing that keeps the Braves from winning playoff series. We seem to be able to find a way. We keep drafting college pitchers. We seem to find a 1 year vet every year.

I don't see any reason to add a 3 year commitment to anyone who isn't a massive upgrade.
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All of this is logical. What I do know is the last two years we have been scrambling for starting pitching. I'd rather avoid that next year.
 
Also the guy that regularly had 200 IP seasons was a top rotation guy and he hasn't been that in years.

The middle to backend guy has done it once and isn't likely to do it again.
 
Southcack77 said:
Also the guy that regularly had 200 IP seasons was a top rotation guy and he hasn't been that in years.

The middle to backend guy has done it once and isn't likely to do it again.
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The guy has gone 35.2 innings in his last five starts. Super small sample size but I'd be willing to wager that most guys that can still do that are 200 inning pitchers.
 
Whether you think he's worth it or not doesn't really matter. AA isn't going to be getting any vet pitcher like Mad Bum for multiple years.

2018: We signed Sanchez
2019: We signed Keuchel
2020: We signed Hamels
2021: We signed Morton and Smyly

All 1 year deals. All have done fairly well besides Hamels. The other notable SP acquisition was Gausman but he was a pre-FA vet with a couple of years left.

Expect more of the same next season. AA will look to sign 1, maybe 2, 1 year guys or make a move for someone like Gausman who has a couple of years before he hits FA.
 
I'm still in the get vets on a 1 year deal. 1 year deals cant hurt you. And there's always available inning eaters in free agency.
 
I don't really have a dog in the fight here or even know where the Bumgarner push came from, but Bumgarner as a 4th-ish starter would be fine by me as long as we aren't paying him nearly $20m. On the one hand he might be rejuvinated a bit to get back into contention, on the other hand he chose Arizona for a reason. That said, the conversation made me look up his baseballsavant profile- interesting numbers if nothing else. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/madison-bumgarner-518516?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Fastball has ticked back up this year after dipping all the way down to 88 last year. Its sitting 90.6 this year, and I think the highest he ever sat was around 92 so maybe not a huge deal there. His barrel numbers are as low as they've been since 2016. His XwoBACON (obviously the most important stat) has dropped back below career average after a few bad years. I don't think there is any world where he gets back to who he was, but he could easily give you two years of significantly better pitching than what I think a guy like Smyly is capable of (even if his results have been reasonably good this year).
 
I still like the idea of getting Price from LA for the last year on his deal to help LA move some money around to bring back Scherzer and Kershaw.
Obviously they'd need to throw in the money that Boston is covering
 
What's the fascination with old dudes who are not what they are getting paid for anymore?

There are cheaper options with more upside almost every year.
 
Southcack77 said:
What's the fascination with old dudes who are not what they are getting paid for anymore?

There are cheaper options with more upside almost every year.
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Price is at 14 million since the Red Sox are giving the Dodgers 16 million. Not sure you're gonna find a starter in FA cheaper than that who can give you what Price likely can.
 
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