Around the League - 2021 Szn

thethe said:
Confidence knowing I'll have 200 IP at a middle of the rotation type effectiveness. All his injuries were flukes. Guy is a 2 WAR pitcher right now as a floor based on what I'm seeing. I'm also not sure why you think his range is 4-4.5 unless you think he degrades this offseason.

In terms of hard contact this is a listing of pitchers that have worse barrels per PA than Bumgarner:

Cole
Scherzer
Berrios
Taillon
Ian Anderson

He scores even better when you look at barrels per contact.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by 'attendant health concerns'?
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He isn't even going to throw 200 innings this year. Probably end up around 160 innings pitched. And he has thrown 200 innings exactly once since 2016. But somehow he's going to do that over the next 3 years with a declining skill set and getting older..... Right......
 
Carp said:
He isn't even going to throw 200 innings this year. Probably end up around 160 innings pitched. And he has thrown 200 innings exactly once since 2016. But somehow he's going to do that over the next 3 years with a declining skill set and getting older..... Right......
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Well considering two of those years that are covered by 200+ inning season were complete fluke non-arm injuries. Are you actually going to forget that when making this argument?

Last year was a complete wash for a lot of guys and certainly for Bumgarner. This year he is still going very deep into games as he has his entire career. He is getting back to around 6 innings a start now and said that he shouldn't have pitched through shoulder discomfort earlier in the year.
 
thethe said:
Guys like Syndergard & Kluber are far more dangerous from my perspective. Those guys arms are ready to blow up. Might be the same with Verlander and his age.

I'm just throwing a range out there that includes the upper and lower bounds. I could be convinced he is worth anywhere from 30-60 million the next 3 years. I'm sure most would have him around 30-40.
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1 year deal with Braves still having so much fifth starter depth? Why not? Depends on salary.

It's about the number not the player.
 
thethe said:
Of pitchers that have thrown at least 100 innings this year Bumgarner is 46th is fWar/inning.

So the guy is clearly producing at a mid rotation rate.

Not even sure what the debate is about it honestly.
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This isn't selling the point you think it is.
 
Southcack77 said:
1 year deal with Braves still having so much fifth starter depth? Why not? Depends on salary.

It's about the number not the player.
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I'm concerned with pitcher attrition so having a three year (what I consider almost guarantee) hedges against that attrition rate.
 
thethe said:
Guys like Syndergard & Kluber are far more dangerous from my perspective. Those guys arms are ready to blow up. Might be the same with Verlander and his age.

I'm just throwing a range out there that includes the upper and lower bounds. I could be convinced he is worth anywhere from 30-60 million the next 3 years. I'm sure most would have him around 30-40.
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The upside is the same or greater and the financial risk is significantly less.
 
thethe said:
Well considering two of those years that are covered by 200+ inning season were complete fluke non-arm injuries. Are you actually going to forget that when making this argument?

Last year was a complete wash for a lot of guys and certainly for Bumgarner. This year he is still going very deep into games as he has his entire career. He is getting back to around 6 innings a start now and said that he shouldn't have pitched through shoulder discomfort earlier in the year.
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Won't pitch anywhere near 200 this year, and only has once in recent history, but a lock to do it going forward at more advanced age with history of "shoulder discomfort" this season?
 
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thethe said:
Are you not including 2016? 2016/2019 he was worth his money and I think you can easily make the argument he is worth it this year.

I don't want to pay his full contract unless the D-Backs are open to sending us a 45-50FV prospect.
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I said since 2016 so if you want to expend to look back 5 years, go ahead. With a good month he might eclipse $17m in value.

The Braves should be looking to get value in free agency. We can’t afford to pay market value for wins in free agency.
 
Carp said:
The upside is the same or greater and the financial risk is significantly less.
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I think the financial risk is far greater in your scenario.

I have confidence that Bumgarner produces a floor of 4 WAR the next three years.

A guy like Kluber/Syndergard could pitch 10 innings and blow out.
 
chop2chip said:
I said since 2016 so if you want to expend to look back 5 years, go ahead. With a good month he might eclipse $17m in value.

The Braves should be looking to get value in free agency. We can’t afford to pay market value for wins in free agency.
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I would say paying market value works ok on short term commitments while the Braves have so much surplus value.
 
Southcack77 said:
Won't pitch anywhere near 200 this year and only has once in recent history, but a lock to do it going forward at more advanced age with history of "shoulder discomfort" this season.
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You can worry about fluke injuries and maybe I should consider them more.

All I know is when the fluke injuries went away he threw 200 innings again.
 
thethe said:
We say that we have all these pitchers and yet so many guys fail or get hurt each year (attrition).

Bumgarner to me is a guarantee for 4WAR as a floor the next three years. He hedges against the attrition risk every team has.
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I would definitely take on Bumgarner for 3/28 which is what your argument is implying.
 
thethe said:
Well considering two of those years that are covered by 200+ inning season were complete fluke non-arm injuries. Are you actually going to forget that when making this argument?

Last year was a complete wash for a lot of guys and certainly for Bumgarner. This year he is still going very deep into games as he has his entire career. He is getting back to around 6 innings a start now and said that he shouldn't have pitched through shoulder discomfort earlier in the year.
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Dude, it doesn't matter if the injuries are flukey or not. Injuries are injuries, and they affect his ability to stay healthy going forward. Injuries linger. That's the nature of injuries.

Soroka re-tore his achilles walking in the parking lot. Does that mean we should expect him to remain completely healthy once he returns?
 
chop2chip said:
I would definitely take on Bumgarner for 3/28 which is what your argument is implying.
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I think we could get him for something around that but I would even pay a bit more since we have the flexibility and we can then save depth for other moves.

I also see that price per WAR is 8 a year now. So I could go for 3/32 all the way to 3/36 if the D-Backs are willing to let go of a prospect.

Just like bad teams in the NBA do I'm willing to take money and get value back. We have the money. Lets use it.
 
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Carp said:
Dude, it doesn't matter if the injuries are flukey or not. Injuries are injuries, and they affect his ability to stay healthy going forward. Injuries linger. That's the nature of injuries.

Soroka re-tore his achilles walking in the parking lot. Does that mean we should expect him to remain completely healthy once he returns?
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Bumgarner already showed that those were fluke injuries by throwing 200 innings in 2019. And yes, he dealt with shoulder discomfort this year but has return to pitch some of the best baseball he has pitched in 6 years.
 
If you are projecting someone to be a 4th or 5th starter and you want to pay them 10+ million a year with a 3 year commitment. Why do I care what he's done, I care what we think he will do.

I would much rather fill a 4th or 5th starter with Ynoa, Touki, Muller, Elder, and random veteran. Over that 3 years you hope to add in Soroka, your two WF first round picks, Strider, etc etc.

There are a million veterans available on 1 year deals.

Bumgarder has a ton of miles on his arm. I feel like adding him is like adding Smyly but with less upside and a 3 year commitment.
 
Russ2dollas said:
If you are projecting someone to be a 4th or 5th starter and you want to pay them 10+ million a year with a 3 year commitment. Why do I care what he's done, I care what we think he will do.

I would much rather fill a 4th or 5th starter with Ynoa, Touki, Muller, Elder, and random veteran. Over that 3 years you hope to add in Soroka, your two WF first round picks, Strider, etc etc.

There are a million veterans available on 1 year deals.

Bumgarder has a ton of miles on his arm. I feel like adding him is like adding Smyly but with less upside and a 3 year commitment.
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I mean Smyly was basically an afterthought prior to August of last year so I think your analogy is WAY off.
 
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