KLAW article on being wrong on Riley

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Russ2dollas

10 yr, $185 million Extension
Athletic has an interesting article from Klaw on Riley. Says he was wrong on Riley. Calls Riley a star with room to improve some in the last lines.

I thought this part was particularly interesting:
“I think the biggest thing that I’ve learned, earlier in my career, was that I either had to pick one pitch, a fastball or an off-speed pitch, and sit on that, and hopefully I got it where I could do damage,” Riley says now, talking about his transformation. “Now I’m able to process an at-bat, understand what a pitcher is trying to do and be able to recognize spin. I know where a ball needs to start for it to be a strike. I see it in this tunnel, and I have to check off on it.”

That fits the points many of us were making that Riley looked like a guess hitter. He'd go up looking for X and if he didn't get it, then he looked horrible. Riley says he was doing just that.

There is some similar stuff in the article from other DOB articles about this hitting guru, Brumley. When can we get this guy working with Waters?

https://theathletic.com/2805938/202...me-the-braves-most-valuable-player-keith-law/
 
I said all along that Riley excelled at every level…given time. I always thought he would be a little above average player and hoped there was a chance for even more. This has definitely been close to a “best case scenario”, and couldn’t happen at a better time with Acuna out.

Gives me hope for Pache and Waters. Waters is another guy I have the same feeling about.
 
Riley had far greater success at all levels than pache and waters did.

It really should not have been a shock that Riley performed well. Almost mvp type numbers is a different story altogether.
 
We’re probably seeing peak Riley this year. Still, the fact that Riley has developed into a legit MLB hitter is a massive boon for the Braves.
 
That is the most exciting part to me- he'll turn 25 at the start of next season. Might have another year or two of improvement into his prime. Can't imagine that he'll improve much on this year's numbers, but hopefully continued growth will come in the form of adjusting to future pitching changes and maintaining success.
 
CyYoung31 said:
We’re probably seeing peak Riley this year. Still, the fact that Riley has developed into a legit MLB hitter is a massive boon for the Braves.
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I think you're right. His .358 BABIP is quite likely near the top of his likely range (career .326). Of course, a fluky BABIP is often how guys have career seasons, so it's not like it's something that never happens again.

However, a legit .270/.350/.500 hitter is pretty much the top 10% outcome we all hoped Riley could become if he fixed his plate discipline.

Riley's massive progression in that department is very rare, and he will be the guy everyone points to whenever a kid needs to "learn how to hit" as proof that it can be done.
 
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Enscheff said:
Riley's massive progression in that department is very rare, and he will be the guy everyone points to whenever a kid needs to "learn how to hit" as proof that it can be done.
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That Law article in The Athletic yesterday essentially said the progression is unlike anything he's ever seen. We see guys have power surges, but rarely overhaul their entire approach and pitch recognition.
 
McCann'sCans said:
That Law article in The Athletic yesterday essentially said the progression is unlike anything he's ever seen. We see guys have power surges, but rarely overhaul their entire approach and pitch recognition.
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I have never seen it, but it's not like I've done analysis for the last 20 years or anything. These types of stats have only been available for 7(?) years.

What I have seen are guys like Acuna improve from average plate discipline to good discipline (mostly after recognizing pitchers are afraid of them), but never from terrible to good. When I say Riley was among the worst handful of MLB players at recognizing strikes and making contact on them, I was being factual. His improvement has been nothing short of remarkable, and verging on unprecedented.

Riley still strikes me as a guy who will decline early, but that's based on nothing more than some gut reaction that is no more valid than any other "eye test" nonsense I usually mock. Right now he is a legit offensive force, and there is very little flukiness in his numbers outside of an elevated BABIP.
 
The mention by Riley being able to tunnel in on a pitch now and recognize the spin brings memories of Ted Williams talking about his incredible eyesight. Ted said his eyes tested well better than 20/10.
 
CyYoung31 said:
We’re probably seeing peak Riley this year. Still, the fact that Riley has developed into a legit MLB hitter is a massive boon for the Braves.
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It probably is his peak, but most players don’t peak at MVP candidate, so this is quite good.
 
CyYoung31 said:
We’re probably seeing peak Riley this year. Still, the fact that Riley has developed into a legit MLB hitter is a massive boon for the Braves.
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Well considering ability usually peaks in the 26-29 time range... I have a hard time believing that. Not that I think he gets much better... but I believe he will sustain this type of production for quite a few years
 
So what is the aging curve of "learning ability."

It seems to me some people and even baseball players have more of it than others.
 
zbhargrove said:
Well considering ability usually peaks in the 26-29 time range... I have a hard time believing that. Not that I think he gets much better... but I believe he will sustain this type of production for quite a few years
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Just because a person’s physical peak is in their late twenties, doesn’t mean a professional athlete can’t have their best year before then. It happens all of the time. It also doesn’t mean a similar year can’t happen again. Besides, an .850 OPS isn’t that far removed from what he’s doing now.
 
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