09/22/21 GDT Braves @ D-Backs Continuing To Give Arizona Its Just Deserts

[50PoundHead]

Crazy that so many even questioned if albies could hit 20 in a season.

There wasn't much in Albies' minor league portfolio that suggested he'd be able to hit with the power he has shown, but a lot of guys develop the ability to drive the ball as they physically mature (my guess is he's probably 20-25 pounds heavier than when he was first signed) and gain experience. I think the question wasn't whether he could hit for power. It was more what might change, and perhaps what he might have to surrender, as a hitter if he were to concentrate more on driving the ball and launch angle. His FB% this year is about 10 percentage points higher than it has been in any other season and his LD and GB percentages are lower (LD not by much). As Deester has pointed out over the years, Albies has a plus hit tool so, for him, it may be just been making adjustments. Not everyone can do that, but that doesn't mean the skepticism about his power potential was unwarranted.

 

[NYCBrave]

Also can the residence babies please stop this nonsense that the Phillies are going to win the division?

They still have a negative run differential which is crazy. They won two 1 run games vs Baltimore and it seems like that's the only way they win.

Pittsburgh has actually been coming off a few series wins so let's see if they give them some trouble.

 

[CyYoung31]

Also can the residence babies please stop this nonsense that the Phillies are going to win the division?

Phillies aren’t going to win it, but it’s still possible that the Braves might lose it.

 

[thethe]

Definitely not the best, but it's the only data (I can think of) we have to extrapolate. Even if Ozzie suffers 2x the average platoon penalty it's still well worth the change.

The difference between RHH Albies and LHH Albies is immense.

Yeah - Not even saying there is a better approach to analyze it.

Its interesting to see if the Braves consider it. Maybe let him do it next spring training as an experiment.

 

[chop2chip]

Also can the residence babies please stop this nonsense that the Phillies are going to win the division?

Phillies schedule is incredibly soft the rest of the year. They probably still will need to sweep the Braves to win the division (maybe win 2 out of 3 if they get some help from the Padres and Mets).

If the Braves win the series next week, it’s over. That’s a great position to be in at home, especially since we look primed to start Morton one of those games next week.

 

[McCann'sCans]

It should end up being Anderson-Wheeler, Morton-Nola, Fried-Gibson- a good setup for us. Huge start for Anderson to keep building on his last couple of outings and regaining trust to start a potential Game 3.

Most projection systems have us at 90%+, which seems about right. If the expected W-L based on run differential were real life, we'd be up 13 games and would've already clinched. Phillies overperforming by 3 games and Braves underperforming by 7, which unfortunately leaves open that 8-10% chance that we blow it.

 

[Enscheff]

It should end up being Anderson-Wheeler, Morton-Nola, Fried-Gibson- a good setup for us. Huge start for Anderson to keep building on his last couple of outings and regaining trust to start a potential Game 3.

Most projection systems have us at 90%+, which seems about right. If the expected W-L based on run differential were real life, we'd be up 13 games and would've already clinched. Phillies overperforming by 3 games and Braves underperforming by 7, which unfortunately leaves open that 8-10% chance that we blow it.

It's hard to overstate just how unlucky the Braves were in the first half, but 7 wins is a nice easy number to sum it up.