GDT 9/28/21: Braves vs Philthies - The series that defines our year

Runnin said:
They are better than average and they've been pretty good against us this year. Having the best hitter in the league is enough in a close game. Will Smith pitched him almost perfectly tonight. That alone should be enough to get fans off his ass.
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Relievers we have that have a higher fWAR than Smith

Minter
Matzek
Chavez
Jackson
Martin
Smyly

Seems a bit silly to have our 7th best reliever closing games.
 
CyYoung31 said:
My problem with Will Smith is that he’s been downright terrible for over a month now. I was one of his biggest defenders before August. (Of his performance, I still think he’s a douche.)
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Will Smith in the last month.

12 innings, 1.08 WHIP, 2.25 ERA, 12K/9.

Perfect? No. "Downright terrible"? Not by a long shot.

In August he probably was "downright terrible".
 
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JCarbo76 said:
Craig Kimbrel. The guy with the 4.80 ERA since being traded to the Chisox. 1 for 4 in save opportunities. 10 walks and 5 homers allowed in 22 innings.
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Of course, I was talking about the young Craig Kimbrel, who btw was also know to walk the bases loaded and then strike out the side.
 
CyYoung31 said:
My problem with Will Smith is that he’s been downright terrible for over a month now. I was one of his biggest defenders before August. (Of his performance, I still think he’s a douche.)
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It's a legit point, but after these last two saves, I think he's in the role for the duration.
 
thewupk said:
That should wrap it up

If that's it for Morton this season then he ends with a 4+ WAR and 3.20 FIP. Both the 2nd best of his career. Got our moneys worth and more.
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I was a skeptic when he signed, not that he wouldn't be good, but I thought Anthopoulos had bid against himself on the price. Happy to be wrong. Very good acquisition and glad he's coming back.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Will Smith in the last month.

12 innings, 1.08 WHIP, 2.25 ERA, 12K/9.

Perfect? No. "Downright terrible"? Not by a long shot.

In August he probably was "downright terrible".
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He’s walking almost 6 batters per 9 innings with an xFIP of 4.22. And if you actually watch the games you’d know that he’s been getting extremely lucky. So, yes, when you take August and September as a whole, he’s been pretty bad for the last two months. He wasn’t good in July either, for that matter.
 
I think people rightfully have a bit of a hangover from August when Smith allowed an OPS of .977 with an ERA approaching 6.00 and a FIP of 8.35.

Despite the past two outings, he's been much better in September, allowing an OPS of .587. The biggest boost in September? He's been keeping the ball in the ballpark for once, which has avoided some of the potential catastrophes that he's set himself up for. The biggest issue? Walk rate is almost 6 per nine, which is just an insane tightrope for a closer to walk. It feels like he's either nibbling at the edges and walking guys or he's giving up bombs, neither of which is particularly comforting.

While I'd agree that he has some serious stones to get out of the messes he makes, I'm also in the camp of wishing we had made Matzek or Jackson the closer a week or two ago. Now its too late.
 
I just hate it that one of the times Will Smith sucked this month, I had to sit and watch it front row behind the dugout in San Francisco.
 
McCann'sCans said:
I think people rightfully have a bit of a hangover from August when Smith allowed an OPS of .977 with an ERA approaching 6.00 and a FIP of 8.35.

Despite the past two outings, he's been much better in September, allowing an OPS of .587. The biggest boost in September? He's been keeping the ball in the ballpark for once, which has avoided some of the potential catastrophes that he's set himself up for. The biggest issue? Walk rate is almost 6 per nine, which is just an insane tightrope for a closer to walk. It feels like he's either nibbling at the edges and walking guys or he's giving up bombs, neither of which is particularly comforting.

While I'd agree that he has some serious stones to get out of the messes he makes, I'm also in the camp of wishing we had made Matzek or Jackson the closer a week or two ago. Now its too late.
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I think you’re probably right in your first paragraph.
 
Braves BP arms ranked by xwOBA (min 100 PAs):

Matzek - .265
Minter - .268
Chavez - .272
Smith - .285
Jackson - .305
Martin - .306
Webb - .306
Santana - .313

I do wish Snit could get away from the dinosaur idea of a "closer", and would instead use the best guy based on platoon matchups in the higher leverage spots. Problem is, the Braves LHP BP arms are their best guys overall, and they don't really have a dominant RHP out of the BP.

Braves BP arms ranked by xwOBA vs RHH (min 50 PAs):

Chavez - .239
Matzek - .256
Minter - .286
Smith - .295
Martin - .300
Jackson - .306
Webb - .319
Santana - .330

So Matzek is a stud, and Chavez is showing some small-ish sample success vs RHH. I'm not convinced Chavez is some BP stud, though he may be very good vs RHH.

Smith may not be elite, but he is a decent option. He should pitch in about the 3rd or 4th highest leverage situation (which will end up being the 9th on some nights), and Snit should try to have him face primarily LHH where that slider is even more devastating. I wish AA didn't give him 3 years at premium dollars.
 
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Moral of hte story is to not give any pitchers from SF a contract.

Something is in the water over there to help their pitchers performance.
 
Enscheff said:
Braves BP arms ranked by xwOBA (min 100 PAs):

Matzek - .265
Minter - .268
Chavez - .272
Smith - .285
Jackson - .305
Martin - .306
Webb - .306
Santana - .313

I do wish Snit could get away from the dinosaur idea of a "closer", and would instead use the best guy based on platoon matchups in the higher leverage spots. Problem is, the Braves LHP BP arms are their best guys overall, and they don't really have a dominant RHP out of the BP.

Braves BP arms ranked by xwOBA vs RHH (min 50 PAs):

Chavez - .239
Matzek - .256
Minter - .286
Smith - .295
Martin - .300
Jackson - .306
Webb - .319
Santana - .330

So Matzek is a stud, and Chavez is showing some small-ish sample success vs RHH. I'm not convinced Chavez is some BP stud, though he may be very good vs RHH.

Smith may not be elite, but he is a decent option. He should pitch in about the 3rd or 4th highest leverage situation (which will end up being the 9th on some nights), and Snit should try to have him face primarily LHH where that slider is even more devastating. I wish AA didn't give him 3 years at premium dollars.
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It’s amazing the difference between Jackson’s actual numbers and his expected numbers. He’s been money this year.

The moral of this story is that Matzek should be the “closer” or whatever title you want to give the highest leverage reliever, which is pretty much what we’ve all been saying since at least July.
 
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CyYoung31 said:
It’s amazing the difference between Jackson’s actual numbers and his expected numbers. He’s been money this year.

The moral of this story is that Matzek should be the “closer” or whatever title you want to give the highest leverage reliever, which is pretty much what we’ve all been saying since at least July.
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Matzek is almost exclusively used in high leverage scenarios. It’s an unintended benefit of your best relief pitcher not being the “closer” when you have old school cool as your manager.
 
chop2chip said:
Matzek is almost exclusively used in high leverage scenarios. It’s an unintended benefit of your best relief pitcher not being the “closer” when you have old school cool as your manager.
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But not if the highest leverage situation is in the 9th. That’s the problem.
 
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