Around the League - 2021 Szn

[50PoundHead]

Are we conceding the fact that soler will be too expensive?

Good point. I think he'll be in the mix. Curious to see what his asking price will be. He's a free agent so there's no option in play, but like Duvall, his hot stretch is probably going to make him want to test the market. Universal DH helps his marketability.

 

[thethe]

Good point. I think he'll be in the mix. Curious to see what his asking price will be. He's a free agent so there's no option in play, but like Duvall, his hot stretch is probably going to make him want to test the market. Universal DH helps his marketability.

Got to hope that the environment plus acuna coming back makes him want to be part of a winning club.

For some reason I feel confident that Soler will be in LF come 2022.

 

[CJ9]

With them wanting to stick with Acuna in RF, it definitely feels like Duvall or Soler in LF next year. Obviously cost will matter, but I sure hope Soler is the pick. I really wouldn't be sad to let Duvall walk.

The real question for me is in center field. Do they trust Joc out there every day? I highly doubt it. Doesn't seem smart to bank on Pache being the guy either. So what's the plan?

 

[thethe]

With them wanting to stick with Acuna in RF, it definitely feels like Duvall or Soler in LF next year. Obviously cost will matter, but I sure hope Soler is the pick. I really wouldn't be sad to let Duvall walk.

The real question for me is in center field. Do they trust Joc out there every day? I highly doubt it. Doesn't seem smart to bank on Pache being the guy either. So what's the plan?

I think making it a strict platoon with late inning defensive replacement with Joc/Pache makes sense.

Joc will get majority of AB's because of handedness and we will have the stud defense past the 7th inning.

 

[50PoundHead]

With them wanting to stick with Acuna in RF, it definitely feels like Duvall or Soler in LF next year. Obviously cost will matter, but I sure hope Soler is the pick. I really wouldn't be sad to let Duvall walk.

The real question for me is in center field. Do they trust Joc out there every day? I highly doubt it. Doesn't seem smart to bank on Pache being the guy either. So what's the plan?

Centerfield is the biggest question mark going into the off-season (at least for me). I doubt Joc is back at $10 MM and neither he nor Duvall is a true CF (although Duvall did better than I thought he would out there). Curious to see if there are any possible trade targets for the position.

 

[CJ9]

Centerfield is the biggest question mark going into the off-season (at least for me). I doubt Joc is back at $10 MM and neither he nor Duvall is a true CF (although Duvall did better than I thought he would out there). Curious to see if there are any possible trade targets for the position.

Good point, I'm just now remembering the Buxton rumors before the deadline.

One small concern looking at next year's lineups, if you assume Duvall or Soler in LF, Ozuna potentially back at some point, Acuna back early in the year, Pache as a CF option -- things get right handed heavy in a hurry, even if Freddie stays. Kind of like the challenges we're dealing with now in the lineup.

 

[NYCBrave]

Centerfield is the biggest question mark going into the off-season (at least for me). I doubt Joc is back at $10 MM and neither he nor Duvall is a true CF (although Duvall did better than I thought he would out there). Curious to see if there are any possible trade targets for the position.

Something I'm starting to notice though, is that some of the smart organizations are doing away with using a "true CF". Just look at us, we are using Duvall. Dodgers have used Bellinger, Chris Taylor, etc. Yankees have even used Aaron Judge there at times. I think where we are in MLB with analytics, organizations are relying mostly on positioning to cover up any shortcoming of player not being an elite CF.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Good point, I'm just now remembering the Buxton rumors before the deadline.

One small concern looking at next year's lineups, if you assume Duvall or Soler in LF, Ozuna potentially back at some point, Acuna back early in the year, Pache as a CF option -- things get right handed heavy in a hurry, even if Freddie stays. Kind of like the challenges we're dealing with now in the lineup.

Marte is a FA hit will be 32 or 33. Jackie Bradley Jr has a player option and may be a good get if he declines his option

 

[bravesfanMatt]

probably most teams feel superior offensive CF are better over all than a light hitting elite defensive player. Sure both would be nice, but it is like the old way of thinking that you needed a speedster leading off to steal bases.. now your best OBP guys are hitting first to give your run producers better RBI chances... Unless you are twit.

 

[clvclv]

Nice work.

The Rodriguez deal looked good because the acquisition price was so reasonable. I don't know if they let him go or not, but he's been a disappointment and I was really surprised he wasn't on the post-season roster.

A month ago, I thought Duvall was a lock to be back, but his option is mutual and I wouldn't be surprised if he opted out and tried to get a firm multi-year deal somewhere. I don't like him that much as a player, but the DH can cover a guy like that to some extent. I can't see Pederson at $10 MM (his mutual option number). If you can put up with Rosario's brain f*rts, lousy plate discipline, and uneven defense, he may be a reasonably-priced option.

Interesting off-season ahead. It would be nice if we could truly count on Pache to be ready.

I personally think ALL FOUR of the OFs AA picked up at the deadline will want to test the market.

That said, the reason I mention Pederson rather than one of the others is that he's the least likely one that will get a better offer than that 1/$10 million - AND a chance to play everyday. That could stand for the entire season if he hits lefties at all - we've already seen Snitker play Duvall when he shouldn't, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get all the ABs in LF once Ronald's all the way back just to keep Ozuna from playing defense as much as possible. Waters isn't ready, and Acuna will miss at least the first part of the season (if not the first half). That leaves RF wide open if Ozuna's on the roster since he sure as *ell can't play there defensively. Even if they chose to promote Waters to be the 5th OF/late-inning defensive replacement for Ozuna/part-time DH in an effort to save money there, Joc would probably be ticketed for everyday ABs in RF until Ronald can play defensively. Maybe they let him DH earlier, but I don't expect to see him roaming the OF until June - hopefully I'm wrong.

That $10 million salary is only $7.5 million more than they're going to have to pay him to go away, and my guess is someone offers Duvall and Rosario more than that - even if only for one year. Whether that's a bad idea isn't the question - we know someone probably will. If someone offers Pederson that type of money it will be as a part-time player, and he's already accepted the offer of everyday ABs (from the Cubs) once.

 

[clvclv]

Are we conceding the fact that soler will be too expensive?

If Ozuna's part of the roster? Yes.

Alex likely isn't going to want a full-time DH taking up a big chunk of payroll. I definitely don't see him tying up the type of money it would take to bring Soler back and have TWO of those guys - especially if he can get one of the other three back for similar money, and Joc and Rosario would probably be the choices ahead of Duvall so you have another LH bat. Anyone can praise Soler's lack of major defensive miscues in this short sample all they want, I think they're lying through their teeth if they don't admit having him in RF and Ozuna in LF until Acuna's back scares them to death.

 

[clvclv]

Marte is a FA hit will be 32 or 33. Jackie Bradley Jr has a player option and may be a good get if he declines his option

Bradley would be absolutely stupid to turn down his option - nobody's going to offer him that kind of money again coming off a 35 WRC+ season, no matter how good he is defensively. He's been early-season Pache without the option to send him down. Even Ender never had that bad an offensive season.

Marte will get big money - if we're worried about fitting one of Soler/Joc/Rosario/Duvall on they payroll, there's absolutely no chance there's room for AA to bid on Marte.

 

[Southcack77]

MLBTR arbitration projections are out - AA's going to have to make some seriously tough decisions this winter if they're close (and they typically are)...

Dansby - $10,100,000
Fried - $7,100,000
Riley - $4,300,000
Jackson - $3,800,000
Rodriguez - $3,100,000
Soroka - $2,800,000
Minter - $2,100,000
Arcia - $2,100,000
Heredia - $1,600,000
Matzek - $1,500,000
Camargo - $1,400,000
Dayton - $1,200,000
Santana - $1,000,000
Newk - $900,000

Assuming they choose to let Duvall, Pederson, and Tomlin walk and Rodriguez, Arcia, Camargo, and Dayton are DFAd that puts payroll at just over $145 million if Freddie gets $25 million and Ozuna is part of the roster. That's with Pache/Heredia as your CFs, Contreras as your backup C, Anderson, Ynoa, and Muller as your #3/#4/#5 SPs, a pen of Smith, Jackson, Matzek, Webb, Minter, Santana, Lee, and Touki with no LF and two open bench spots - and that's IF Acuna were somehow ready for Opening Day (which isn't likely going to happen). DFAing Minter and replacing him with Davidson/Newk/Strider/Elder/veteran making the minimum would shave off another million and a half or so.

That would leave roughly $7 million to sign a LF, backup SS, and final bench piece. 2022 payroll's obviously going to have to be over $150 million - exercising Pederson's option would push you past that, but you could try to get by with him in RF, Ozuna in LF, and a rotating DH until Acuna's back if you think Rosario or Duvall will get more than $7.5 million (and/or multiple years) on the open market.

I do not see many, if any, particularly hard calls.

Luke Jackson maybe?

 

[zbhargrove]

With them wanting to stick with Acuna in RF, it definitely feels like Duvall or Soler in LF next year. Obviously cost will matter, but I sure hope Soler is the pick. I really wouldn't be sad to let Duvall walk.

The real question for me is in center field. Do they trust Joc out there every day? I highly doubt it. Doesn't seem smart to bank on Pache being the guy either. So what's the plan?

We'll just get Duvall back at the deadline again... let him walk lol

 

[Southcack77]

probably most teams feel superior offensive CF are better over all than a light hitting elite defensive player. Sure both would be nice, but it is like the old way of thinking that you needed a speedster leading off to steal bases.. now your best OBP guys are hitting first to give your run producers better RBI chances... Unless you are twit.

I think offensive war is probably more valuable than defensive war.

Theoretically it should not matter but I don't think it's quite there.

 

[zbhargrove]

Something I'm starting to notice though, is that some of the smart organizations are doing away with using a "true CF". Just look at us, we are using Duvall. Dodgers have used Bellinger, Chris Taylor, etc. Yankees have even used Aaron Judge there at times. I think where we are in MLB with analytics, organizations are relying mostly on positioning to cover up any shortcoming of player not being an elite CF.

Its actually a bit surprising how little of a disaster the OF defense has been. Soler will not win any defensive awards but he's been unexpectedly solid.

 

[zbhargrove]

Marte is a FA hit will be 32 or 33. Jackie Bradley Jr has a player option and may be a good get if he declines his option

I would rather have Pache at the league minimum than pay Jackie Bradley Jr anything... Pache may already be a better defender and I'm not sure Bradley will be a better hitter. Also why would he decline the option when he was awful?

 

[mfree80]

One big takeaway from this discussion is that MLB is really hurting the Braves by kicking the decision on suspending Ozuna down the road the entire season.

I hope AA knows how that is going to play out even if the rest of us don't, because it is a huge factor in the Braves off-season planning.

 

[clvclv]

I do not see many, if any, particularly hard calls.

Luke Jackson maybe?

Yes or no on Rodriguez and Minter are pretty tough calls - they haven't been good lately, but both have been shutdown guys in the not-so-distant past. JMO, but I think keeping present Minter at that salary rather than Newk at $900K would be a justifiable "splurge". Keeping him over a healthy Dayton probably isn't, but then when has Dayton ever been healthy for more than a couple months? I'm all for showing Minter, Dayton, AND Newk the door and going with Lee as your third lefty in the pen, but will Alex win that argument if Snitker says he wants a veteran guy? Who knows?

Rodriguez didn't cost much, but you can make the argument that he cost too much to acquire the way they used him. Wilson wouldn't have had any options left next season, but if Snitker continues to be allowed to carry someone who sucks to be a mop-up guy/emergency starter (or Opener) like Tomlin, Bryse won't even make as much money as Newk in 2022. Complete supposition on my part but my guess is that AA had every intention of having Rodriguez become the 8th inning Martin replacement for roughly half the money Martin was making this season. That would have meant you'd have the 4 back-end guys (2 lefties and 2 righties) already in-house and under control for next season. Rodriguez' late struggles can't be ignored by any stretch, but if you cut him loose, who do you trust enough to use in the late innings of tight games on a REGULAR basis? Webb? Probably not. Santana? Nope. Yoan Lopez or Flaa? Not likely. Given the club's history of never transitioning SPs until their careers are all but over, We'll probably never see Touki, Ynoa, or Strider ever used as difference-makers/weapons out of the pen even though all 3 could be candidates to replace Smith as Closer if they ever were.

Arcia's a pretty tough call if you don't think you can bring back Adrianza (or someone similar) for $1.5 million or less - Camargo's not an option at SS, and unless you're going to use Shewmake as Dansby's backup when he should be getting everyday ABs in Gwinnett you don't have an in-house option that you can pay the minimum.

 

[UNCBlue012]

Yes or no on Rodriguez and Minter are pretty tough calls - they haven't been good lately, but both have been shutdown guys in the not-so-distant past. JMO, but I think keeping present Minter at that salary rather than Newk at $900K would be a justifiable "splurge". Keeping him over a healthy Dayton probably isn't, but then when has Dayton ever been healthy for more than a couple months? I'm all for showing Minter, Dayton, AND Newk the door and going with Lee as your third lefty in the pen, but will Alex win that argument if Snitker says he wants a veteran guy? Who knows?

Rodriguez didn't cost much, but you can make the argument that he cost too much to acquire the way they used him. Wilson wouldn't have had any options left next season, but if Snitker continues to be allowed to carry someone who sucks to be a mop-up guy/emergency starter (or Opener) like Tomlin, Bryse won't even make as much money as Newk in 2022. Complete supposition on my part but my guess is that AA had every intention of having Rodriguez become the 8th inning Martin replacement for roughly half the money Martin was making this season. That would have meant you'd have the 4 back-end guys (2 lefties and 2 righties) already in-house and under control for next season. Rodriguez' late struggles can't be ignored by any stretch, but if you cut him loose, who do you trust enough to use in the late innings of tight games on a REGULAR basis? Webb? Probably not. Santana? Nope. Yoan Lopez or Flaa? Not likely. Given the club's history of never transitioning SPs until their careers are all but over, We'll probably never see Touki, Ynoa, or Strider ever used as difference-makers/weapons out of the pen even though all 3 could be candidates to replace Smith as Closer if they ever were.

Minter has been very good, the hell you talking about? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/a-j-minter-621345?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb