Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

Garmel said:
Wut?
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In Enscheff's scenario Freeman is on the books when Fried is gone.

I'd rather just let Freeman walk and extend Fried now for an addition 2-3 years after he is a FA and allocate that 25-30M towards Fried.
 
If you’re looking for a riskier way to allocate $30M than a 1B in his mid-30s, it would be to give that cash to a SP in his 30s while already controlling him for the entirety of his 20s.

So, well done.
 
Enscheff said:
If you’re looking for a riskier way to allocate $30M than a 1B in his mid-30s, it would be to give that cash to a SP in his 30s while already controlling him for the entirety of his 20s.

So, well done.
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Elite pitchers seems to be ageing well lately.

Top 10 fWAR for pitchers in 2018

Degrom
Scherzer
Verlander
Cole
Bauer
Nola
Corbin
Kluber
Severino
Carasco


So the injury risk is there but how do weight that against hitters that lose bat speed as they age?
 
CyYoung31 said:
You’re not winning this one, man.
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Why would I care about 'winning'?

Fried is a personal favorite and elite pitchers age very well in recent history.

If anything Fried has already bucked the pitching ageing curve because his velocity should have decreased by now. Its going in the opposite direction.
 
thethe said:
Why would I care about 'winning'?

Fried is a personal favorite and elite pitchers age very well in recent history.

If anything Fried has already bucked the pitching ageing curve because his velocity should have decreased by now. Its going in the opposite direction.
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You obviously don’t care about winning. I agree with you there.
 
thethe said:
Elite pitchers seems to be ageing well lately.

Top 10 fWAR for pitchers in 2018

Degrom
Scherzer
Verlander
Cole
Bauer
Nola
Corbin
Kluber
Severino
Carasco


So the injury risk is there but how do weight that against hitters that lose bat speed as they age?
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Did you really just post a leaderboard from a single season back in 2018 as "proof" SPs are now aging well?

Analysts, stop what you're doing! Stop running data over entire player populations! This guy who is always wrong about everything found a single season where some older pitchers performed well as a group! Stop!! Listen to this man!!

Is this real life? Is Ashton about to jump out and scream that we've been punked?
 
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Enscheff said:
Did you really just post a leaderboard from a single season back in 2018 as "proof" SPs are now aging well?

Is this real life? Is Ashton about to jump out and scream that we've been punked?
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What top level pitcher has degraded outside of an injury?

Should Fried have already been experiencing velocity reductions?
 
Enscheff said:
I’ve long stated 3/90 with an option is what I would pay for a 1B in his 30s.

However, I lack a lot of context and data AA has access to. Maybe they have analysis that shows he won’t age like a typical 1B. Maybe they have data that shows he benefits the club financially in some unique way. Maybe they know payroll will be $200M 3 years from now, so there’s plenty of room to overpay a declining 1B in the future.

We’ve all seen the data about aging guys at 1B, but the best chance to win for the next 2-3 years may very well be tied to the fact that it will hamper the chances to win in 2025 and beyond. If the plan is to take on a mini rebuild after Fried and Morton are gone anyways, maybe paying Freeman huge money in the last couple years of his deal while the team rebuilds isn’t so bad.
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Interesting point about the 3 year window. That's the amount of time left we have with Soroka (if at all) and Fried. Who knows what the roster will even look like at that point and if we'll have enough coming up through the minors to reload properly.
 
thethe said:
Now weigh that against hitter degradation because of bat speed.
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I don't have to. That work has already been done. I've posted those aging curves. FAs have been priced according to those aging curves for several years now. Everyone understands them, except you.

In fact, I'm sure you would understand them if they backed up whatever silly point you had stuck in your head at the time.
 
Enscheff said:
I don't have to. That work has already been done. I've posted those aging curves. FAs have been priced according to those aging curves for several years now. Everyone understands them, except you.

In fact, I'm sure you would understand them if they backed up whatever silly point you had stuck in your head at the time.
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So how is Fried doing against the normal pitching ageing curve?
 
NYCBrave said:
Interesting point about the 3 year window. That's the amount of time left we have with Soroka (if at all) and Fried. Who knows what the roster will even look like at that point and if we'll have enough coming up through the minors to reload properly.
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That's part of the calculus why a 5-6 year deal for Freeman might not matter. If there's a rebuild coming anyways, who cares if Freeman is pulling down huge cash during that rebuild?

If the Braves end up trading away Anderson, Albies and Acuna 3 years from now to jumpstart a rebuild, then whatever they are paying Freeman is irrelevant.

I really hope that isn't the plan, but it's something to consider I guess. Harris probably isn't the next Acuna, Pache and Waters are scuffling, and no other impact guys appear to be coming up. It's not impossible to envision a pretty poor Braves team 3 years from now.
 
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/

The general takeaway was that, as suspected, pitchers age differently than hitters. Generally, pitchers see their velocity peak in their early 20s and steadily decline by a full mile per hour by age 26. After that, velocity drops more sharply and continues a steep decline into a pitcher’s 30s.

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And then you have elite pitchers like Scherzer/Verlander/Degrom/etc... that don't seem to follow this.

Fried is INCREASING his velocity at 27.
 
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