Congrats, he's talented. But you're high if you think there's an insane talent gap between him and the guys listed. Or you're just a big believer in revisionist history. Or you just prefer your Nats players to other teams players.
Quick comparison from John Sickels:
Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.
It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.
4) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Grade B: I have no idea what to do with this grade. A healthy Giolito is a Grade A prospect, but Tommy John recovery is not automatic and we can't assume that Lucas will follow the same path as Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg.
Considered the top high school pitching prospect in the 2012 draft by most experts, he hurt his elbow early in the spring but rehabbed the ligament tear without surgery. The injury dropped him from the first few picks of the draft down to 16th overall, where he still earned a $2,925,000 bonus.
Giolito is a 6-6, 225 pound right-hander, born July 14th, 1994. When healthy, he throws 95-99 MPH, mixing the heat with an excellent curveball and impressive changeup. Scouts love his personality and maturity on the mound. He has the stuff and command to be a number one starter, provided that his arm holds up.
Or from others:
Seven months later, stronger and further removed from surgery, Giolito looks every bit the part of an elite pitching prospect, and prospect bible Baseball America tabbed him No. 21 overall . He looks like a small NBA power forward at 6 feet 6, 255 pounds, sports big hands that help him spin the baseball, is still maturing physically and touched 100 late in the season. The Southern California kid with Hollywood roots and a rocket arm is ready for his first full season in the minors.
“He is a can’t-miss,” Schu said. “Only come around once in a while.”
>> Here’s is a sampling of what baseball publications had to say about Giolito. Baseball America ranked Giolito as the 21st best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him as high as No. 13. MLB.com slotted him at No. 44. Giolito is aware of the attention surrounding his potential but has tried to tune it out.
“That stuff’s always there,” he said. “It’s in the background. You see it here and there. It’s not something you focus on, because you really have to focus on the important things which are your pitching and where you want to be as an athlete. So it’s always there, but it’s not a main focus.”
Baseball America was optimistic about Giolito’s potential: “No one in the minors “just needs innings” more than Giolito, whose pure stuff may be the best on this list but who has just 39 professional innings after being a 2012 first-round pick. A healthy campaign in a full-season rotation is first and foremost.”
MLB wrote this: “Giolito throws his fastball in the mid- to upper-90s, often reaching 100 mph. He throws a hard, 12-to-6 curveball that is almost as good as his fastball. His changeup isn’t as well developed as his other two pitches, but it has the potential to be a third above-average Major League offering. He has good command and an advanced feel for pitching. If he can stay healthy, Giolito has as much potential as any pitcher in the Minor Leagues.”
But Baseball Prospectus, which pointed out some command issues, was the most laudatory of Giolito’s potential: “On paper, Giolito has the highest ceiling of any arm in the minors, and that list includes Taijuan Walker and Archie Bradley. It’s an almost irresponsible combination of size and stuff, a 6’6’’ power righty who can sit in the mid-upper-90s with a lively fastball and back it up with an unhittable hard curveball that can show intense vertical depth.
“He’s not far removed from Tommy John surgery and the command profile needs refinement, but the 19-year-old arm should dominate at the A-ball level in 2014, and when the Nationals take the governor off the semi in 2015, Giolito should erupt into the premier arm in baseball, if he doesn’t already have claim on that distinction after his full-season debut. This is what it looks like, folks. This is a future no. 1 starter at the major-league level.”
>>> Giolito said he spoke often with Taylor Jordan, another hard-throwing right-hander who underwent Tommy John surgery and overlapped with him in the instructional league in 2012. From talking to Jordan, and from charting pitches and pitch sequences while he rehabbed early last season, Giolito said that he made good use of time away from the mound.
>>> Innings are Giolito’s biggest weakness. He has thrown only 38 2/3 in his professional career, and only 36 2/3 since surgery. Even though he will be capped this season per team policy, a full and healthy year in a minor league rotation is a must for Giolito. His first uncapped season would then likely be in 2015. For all his potential, Giolito still needs the repetitions and consistency to fulfill them.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do and he’s got a lot of work to do,” Scialabba said. “And, potential is one thing but going out there and performing and doing it consistently and building the arm strength is going to take some time.”
MASN’s Byron Kerr has reported that Giolito will begin 2014 in Low-A Hagerstown, insisting in the comments that he’ll be there for Opening Day. History strongly suggests otherwise as previous HS pitchers (A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray) were held back until May, though there is the counter example of Taylor Jordan, who underwent TJ in July 2011, came back to action with Auburn and Hagerstown in the June 2012, and was sent to Potomac in April 2013.(Can we both be wrong and have him debut in Woodbridge in mid-May? ;-)
Giolito features a 80-grade fastball that can hit triple digits from a high arm angle created in part by his 6’6″ frame, though scouts noted he tended to work best when it was around 95 to 97 mph. He also boasts a 12-6 curve (clocked in the 84-86 range) that could reach the 80 mark, but alas his changeup only figures to reach 70 mark, making it merely plus, not plus-plus (for the velo whores, it comes in around 82-83).
