You are correct under the current rules. Could they change with the new CBA?
Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread
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You are correct under the current rules. Could they change with the new CBA?
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Pederson play a few times 1B.
The reports on his defense weren't very flattering as I recall.
Schwarber's pretty much a defensive liability wherever you put him, and it's tough to imagine one of those as a fit with Ozuna around.
I don't think I'm going out on a limb assuming that QO penalties will be substantially reduced - if not completely removed - in the new CBA. It's my understanding that the guys who were offered QOs this time around will still have them attached following the lockout, but it's not out of the question to believe that wouldn't be an issue if they actually were interested in Conforto - the pick they'd receive for Freeman signing elsewhere will be higher than the one they'd give up for signing Conforto.
If the return for Olson is anything like what the FanGraphs article Enscheff linked a while back (Waters or Pache, Contreras or Langeliers, and a 40 or 45 arm) and they think they could work out an extension with the much-younger Olson, trading for him and signing Conforto would make a lot of sense - especially if you could get Conforto on a 3 year deal. He could play RF until Acuna's ready and then slide over to LF at that point - you could start the season with Heredia and whichever of Pache/Waters you didn't trade in CF, and Duvall could replace them when Ronald is added to the roster and Ozuna never HAS TO play defense.
chopdrew
Lynchburg Prospect
I've heard a lot of people speculate that McDowell's throwing program did a lot more harm than good long term. Looking at the young arms that got run into the ground, there might be something to it...
It can. However any change would more than likely start in the following offseason. That's how it happened the last time the free agent compensation rules were updated.
Correct me if I'm wrong but if the Braves sign Conforto then they would lose their 2nd round pick which is likely in the 55-60 range. IF they lose Freeman then the pick they would gain would be after Competitive Balance Round B which would be in the mid 70s.
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I am not sure but i believe only the first (10 picks/teams) they can sign a QO player and keep that first round pick.
Actually think your numbers are probably right - I didn't look to get the picks exactly right before posting that - but the point remains the same. They wouldn't technically be "losing" a pick if they signed Conforto, traded for Olson, and allowed Freeman to sign elsewhere. The pick lost/gained would be a little lower, but I don't think that would be that big a concern since you can make the argument that it's pretty tough to say that picks 50-75 aren't likely to be valued much differently.
EDIT: Actually, I take that back - the pick WOULD be higher. Freeman turned down the QO as well, and he'll be ranked higher on the list than Conforto. Pushing the scenario further - IIRC, QO free-agents that sign deals for less than $50 million don't return compensation for their former team. If the Braves got Conforto for something like 3 years/$48 million they WOULD give up a pick for signing him, but the Mutts wouldn't be rewarded with an extra pick. There's a win-win for you.
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That was in a previous version of the rules. Currently the teams highest selection is protected across the board.
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Plus trade picks for players.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
I'm assuming you mean when teams don't lose picks for signing FAs.
I like the idea of extra picks for teams that lose free agents. But taking picks away from the teams that sign them unfairly depresses the market.
Good MLBTR article on Rodon: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/carlos-rodon-rumors-free-agent-market.html
The ChiSox didn't offer him a QO, so it stands to reason there was no trade market for him at $18M...unless there was some handshake deal he wouldn't be given a QO after signing the $3M prove-it deal.
MLBTR has him at 1/25, and FG has him at 3/45. If AA was really in on Verlander, it seems likely he will be in on Rodon. A top 4 of Fried, Morton, Rodon and Anderson would be pretty legit. The Braves have proven adept at keeping SPs well rested by managing workload, and I expect they'd have to do exactly that with Rodon.
The ChiSox didn't offer him a QO, so it stands to reason there was no trade market for him at $18M...unless there was some handshake deal he wouldn't be given a QO after signing the $3M prove-it deal.
MLBTR has him at 1/25, and FG has him at 3/45. If AA was really in on Verlander, it seems likely he will be in on Rodon. A top 4 of Fried, Morton, Rodon and Anderson would be pretty legit. The Braves have proven adept at keeping SPs well rested by managing workload, and I expect they'd have to do exactly that with Rodon.
They were discussing him on XM when I went to pick up breakfast this morning, and pointed out exactly why I'd prefer to steer well clear of Carlos - the White Sox tried to manage his workload last year, yet he STILL couldn't answer the bell coming down the stretch. After his 7 inning start on July 18th, his next starts were...
07/24 - 4 IP
07/29 - 4 IP
08/07 - 5 IP
Then they put him on the IL and answered all questions the same way - this is just managing him so he's good to go when the playoffs get here. He came back with 5 IP on August 26th and September 1st, then they spaced his starts out - only pitching every-other time through the rotation...
09/10 - 5 IP
09/20 - 3 IP
09/29 - 5 IP
For all that handling him with kid gloves, he gave them 2.2 innings on October 12th against the Astros and his season was over.
He may be my poster child for not completely trusting the new metrics - 4.9 fWAR last season and the peripherals were elite, but he only gave them 45.2 innings AFTER the All-Star break. I just don't see how anyone can justify that as being helpful for a contender. I absolutely love the upside when he's on, but he only made 8 starts last season that lasted 6 or more innings - and only 2 of those came after June 18th. I could see giving him that 3/45 if the second and third years were TEAM OPTIONS in case he gives you a Hamels (or repeat of his own 2021) season in 2022, but Borass is never going to let him take a contract that protects the team as well. JMO, but I'd leave him out there as long as he stays out there and if he hasn't signed a week or two before camps open offer him the Smyly-like deal. I'd be more-inclined to expand a potential offer for Olson to include Manaea before I'd guarantee multiple years to Rodon - he just scares me to death like Paxton. I think you're going to be able to get Greinke, Kikuchi, or Pineda for Smyly-dollars, sign Duffy, Boyd, or Carlos Martinez for a song, or trade for John Means or Manaea.
I'm guessing XM talk hosts neglected to mention Rodon's IP totals the last several years as he recovered from TJS.
2019: 34 IP
2020: 7 IP
2021: 132 IP
I think with that jump in IP it is very reasonable to expect him to wear down. I would argue the ChiSox did a poor job of limiting him early in the season because, well, TLR is a dinosaur manager and probably broke his favorite toy. We have seen the Braves manage SP workloads much more effectively for several years now.
However, the fact they didn't even offer him a QO suggests to me he may be damaged goods, so some diligence will certainly be required to verify it truly was just dead arm. To me, barring any current health problems, he seems like the prototypical Dodgers-esque pickup they baby through the regular season so they can unleash him in October.
2019: 34 IP
2020: 7 IP
2021: 132 IP
I think with that jump in IP it is very reasonable to expect him to wear down. I would argue the ChiSox did a poor job of limiting him early in the season because, well, TLR is a dinosaur manager and probably broke his favorite toy. We have seen the Braves manage SP workloads much more effectively for several years now.
However, the fact they didn't even offer him a QO suggests to me he may be damaged goods, so some diligence will certainly be required to verify it truly was just dead arm. To me, barring any current health problems, he seems like the prototypical Dodgers-esque pickup they baby through the regular season so they can unleash him in October.
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NYCBrave
Well-known member
Just out of curiosity, how have you seen the Braves manage workloads? I'm actually genuinely asking. Is it shortened starts? Fake DL stints? Skipped starts? I wasn't sure I remember a whole lot of that happening last year. Fried and Anderson seemed to have legit injuries which required DL. Morton was allowed to be Morton. But it's possible I just missed what was happening.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
We have seen players, especially Fried, get extra days between starts.
I'd think with the likes of Newk, Davidson, Touki, Wright, Elder, Strider, etc we could protect a number of guys.
I'd think with the likes of Newk, Davidson, Touki, Wright, Elder, Strider, etc we could protect a number of guys.
All of those things have happened the last 3-4 seasons as AA used the 10 day DL to shuffle pitchers around, and allowed guys to routinely get an extra day of rest rather than skipping the 5th starter. As opposed to the Mets who seem to not be able to keep anyone healthy...there must be systemic differences between organizations.
I think teams like the Dodgers are using NBA-style load management processes to keep guys playing at a higher level more often rather than playing while fatigued and/or banged up. I suspect things like exit velocity and sprint speed can inform them almost in real time when guys need a break. The Braves seem to be using similar processes on pitchers, but the presence of guys like Freeman may be proving to make it hard to extend the same methods to position players.
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