Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

Spencer Strider starting against the Blue Jays today. Bichette, Gurriel, Hernandez look like the only three regulars who are traveling.
 
clvclv said:
As strange as it seems, I'm at least willing to believe this was the plan all along - at least after the Freeman situation finally came into focus. I'm now convinced that anything the talking heads float about potential moves under Alex are no more based in "fact" than ideas posters here come up with - those guys are simply guessing like we are. NOBODY saw the Jansen signing coming no matter what they say after the fact - the Yates signing was the one everyone saw as adding to the pen for the stretch run.

Don't misunderstand - I'm sure Alex ran through all the potential scenarios involving signing or trading for more starting pitching. While there may have been several seemingly better options, Wright/Ynoa/Davidson/Muller/Strider/Elder/Tarnok aren't exactly garbage as back-end pieces - ESPECIALLY when you consider how deep this pen is. With the Jansen addition Snitker will now be able to call on guys like McHugh/Minter/Thornburg in the 5th inning, and even earlier once Yates is healthy. I think waiting to address a potential 4th postseason SP until we see what kind of step forward the young arms take will wind up being the right move in the long run.

I think he correctly surmised that he needed to get the lineup "settled" first - the Olson deal HAD TO be made, one OFer HAD TO be added, and making the pen even deeper made everything that much easier. Acuna will be back sooner rather than later and Waters and/or Harris could become really nice additions to the mix in the second half. Rosario and Duvall can play either corner if they decide they don't want Ozuna to play defense. You've got Tromp and Contreras for catching depth and Contreras is athletic enough that he could be an option on the corners if needed. Assuming health, there should be no reason Alex has to address the lineup come deadline time when getting an impact bat ALWAYS seems to be more expensive than adding a competent SP. We may never see a situation where anyone is able to add the type of impactful offensive talent on the cheap that he did last year - that was just the perfect storm, and to be completely honest unbelievably lucky.

With Fried and Morton already on board, this team doesn't need another frontline guy - guys like Means/Greinke/Pineda/Marquez/Manaea will likely be available at the deadline, and there's always the chance he could even look at adding Bieber/Castillo/Mahle/Montas/maybe even Gray if they feel like Morton doesn't have one more season left in him at that point.
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This was how I saw the logic on getting a SP that wasn't a difference maker at this point in the season. WHen things come into more focus AA will be able to get an actual impact arm if its needed.

It would have been a major waste of resources to sign a starting pitcher this offseason. Thankfully AA knew the right approach.
 
thethe said:
This was how I saw the logic on getting a SP that wasn't a difference maker at this point in the season. WHen things come into more focus AA will be able to get an actual impact arm if its needed.

It would have been a major waste of resources to sign a starting pitcher this offseason. Thankfully AA knew the right approach.
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Part of the reason I wanted a 4th SP was the unknown surrounding Morton. Apparently he's completely healthy and ready to go (which probably wasn't an unknown to AA), so that lessens that uncertainty.

I still think they need another SP though, and I expect one to be acquired before opening day.
 
I also would like to have a cheap veteran who can eat innings with roughly a 4.00 - 4.50 ERA. I thought Greinke would be that, but I certainly didn't want that for 13 million. I still would not mind giving Chris Archer a shot to see if we can get him straightened out. Even if he just pitches at last years level, he would be useful, imo.
 
Carp said:
I also would like to have a cheap veteran who can eat innings with roughly a 4.00 - 4.50 ERA. I thought Greinke would be that, but I certainly didn't want that for 13 million. I still would not mind giving Chris Archer a shot to see if we can get him straightened out. Even if he just pitches at last years level, he would be useful, imo.
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Again - Makes zero sense to try and 'upgrade' the fifth starter spot.

We are going to make the playoffs. The team is too loaded not to.

You wait for 3 months. See where the team plays out and then make a BIG upgrade in the rotation. A fifth starter addition does nothing for the team in terms of ending wins and losses and will be even more irrelevant come playoff time.
 
thethe said:
Again - Makes zero sense to try and 'upgrade' the fifth starter spot.

We are going to make the playoffs. The team is too loaded not to.

You wait for 3 months. See where the team plays out and then make a BIG upgrade in the rotation. A fifth starter addition does nothing for the team in terms of ending wins and losses and will be even more irrelevant come playoff time.
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But it does make sense. Morton is old. Fried, Anderson, and Ynoa all had injury issues last season (granted Ynoa's has self inflicted). Davidson misses the majority of the season with an injury. Wright and Touki seem like AAAA players at this point. This magical pitching depth you dream of is one major injury away from turning the rotation to below average real quick. Stability is a good thing. And a cheap veteran likely isn't going to make a difference on whether we need to make a significant upgrade in 3 months or not. But he might be the difference between 2-3 actual wins in a division that should be very competitive.
 
No pitcher that is remaining is going to be worth 2-3 actual wins over what we have already in the pipeline.

If that pitcher was worth that they would have already been signed to a 10+ million dollar deal.
 
I think thethe is right here. There is a difference in saying we need to upgrade our staff and then saying what is out there that could upgrade our staff. There is not anything left that is going to upgrade anything. I also don't mind if we take a flyer on some guy in hopes to keep our rotation from seeing Newk.
 
thethe said:
No pitcher that is remaining is going to be worth 2-3 actual wins over what we have already in the pipeline.

If that pitcher was worth that they would have already been signed to a 10+ million dollar deal.
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Not 2-3 WAR. I'm talking about actual wins in the W/L column. There are plenty of veteran pitchers (either by trade of signing) who are all far more likely to be quality pitchers in 2022 than what we have available.
 
Carp said:
Not 2-3 WAR. I'm talking about actual wins in the W/L column. There are plenty of veteran pitchers (either by trade of signing) who are all far more likely to be quality pitchers in 2022 than what we have available.
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Thats a fair distinction but I still don't believe that guy is out there.

Archer has been a disaster for years now and I don't see why anyone would expect that to change.

I'd rather keep all of our remaining powder dry until closer to the deadline.
 
thethe said:
Thats a fair distinction but I still don't believe that guy is out there.

Archer has been a disaster for years now and I don't see why anyone would expect that to change.

I'd rather keep all of our remaining powder dry until closer to the deadline.
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I have to agree that I don't know who is out there better than Wright/Ynoa/Davidson/Muller/Touki/Elder/Strider/Newcombe. Of course you could trade, but we don't have much left to trade.

The bad news is there is no reason to think you are getting a 2 WAR performance out of any of those guys.

The good news is you have 8 options.

The bad news is you need 2 of those guys to be solid/ok.

The good news is your team around them is good, except for outfield defense.

The bad news is your three starters that are established are Fried (blister issues and does much better with extra rest), Morton (old and coming off an injury) and Anderson (had some health issues last year).

The good news is those guys have a track record of being pretty good.

If one of the big 3 is out for a long time or not good we are in trouble. And I don't see any way to fix it unless you are willing to trade mike harris.
 
thethe said:
No pitcher that is remaining is going to be worth 2-3 actual wins over what we have already in the pipeline.

If that pitcher was worth that they would have already been signed to a 10+ million dollar deal.
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The braves pretty much followed that approach last year, and gave starts to guys like Touki, Muller, Wilson, Davidson, Wright, Ynoa.

Remember in 2020, we had "solid veterans" like Robbie Erlin and Tommy Milone starting for us, which didn't quite work out.

We all remember signing Keuchal and signing Anibal, but those signings are a bit rare, especially with that type of quality even being available.
 
Like Carp, I'd love an innings eater who could pitch to a 4.00-4.50 ERA. Unfortunately, that person doesn't exist right now.

Quick flip through baseballsavant profiles of the starting pitchers available (Teheran, Richards, Cueto, Urena, Arrieta, Archer, Anderson, Happ) it becomes quite clear why they are all available. You look at all of their profiles and they are in the bottom 10% of virtually everything- how hard they throw it, how well they spin it, whiff rate, hard hit rate, expected batting average, expected slugging, barrel %...everything. I'd feel differently if there were a profile or two that suggested a potential turnaround season with some tweaks, but they are all just toast.

Unless there is an option that comes along due to a late spring training cut (I don't see us burning more prospect capital), then we are probably better off rolling with the kids. If we're going to end up signing someone who puts up an ERA in the 5.00-6.00 range regardless, I'd rather just throw the 6-8 young guys to best case get some upside and worst case rule some people out who we can move on from for good.

Obviously that calculus could change if a reasonable option hits the market in the next week- and Atlanta would probably be a priority destination for a vet looking to contend- but that seems unlikely.
 
thethe said:
Thats a fair distinction but I still don't believe that guy is out there.

Archer has been a disaster for years now and I don't see why anyone would expect that to change.

I'd rather keep all of our remaining powder dry until closer to the deadline.
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Granted it was 20 innings, but he had 4.29 FIP last year with the Rays. He really only had the 1 bad year. He's been injured a lot too.
 
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No matter how hard you squint at Archer's line from last year, its tough to think optimistically. He got hit harder than he ever has, and if anything he got pretty lucky that the results weren't worse.
 
NYCBrave said:
The braves pretty much followed that approach last year, and gave starts to guys like Touki, Muller, Wilson, Davidson, Wright, Ynoa.

Remember in 2020, we had "solid veterans" like Robbie Erlin and Tommy Milone starting for us, which didn't quite work out.

We all remember signing Keuchal and signing Anibal, but those signings are a bit rare, especially with that type of quality even being available.
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I would hardly qualify Robbie Erlin as a "solid veteran." He was the definition of a AAAA player. He had just over 300 career innings in the 7 years prior to coming to Atlanta.

I'll give you Tommy Milone, but he had been pretty awful the prior 4 years before his 30 innings in Baltimore. And we were extremely desperate for pitchers in 2020 with everyone being injured.

A better argument would be Cole Hamels and Brandon McCarthy. Of course, I can also point to Anibal, Keuchel, and Morton. Even Smyly was useful, even if he was an expensive 5th starter. Finding a cheaper/more durable Drew Smyly would be ideal.

As far as options available via trade, I've mentioned Jake Odorizzi. Houston would dump him for peanuts. I'm sure they'd even be willing to kick in a but of cash.
 
McCann'sCans said:
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No matter how hard you squint at Archer's line from last year, its tough to think optimistically. He got hit harder than he ever has, and if anything he got pretty lucky that the results weren't worse.
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It's hard to take much away from 20 innings of work, which was the caveat in my post. But his WHIP, BB rate, H/9, HR rate, and K rate were all right at or near career averages. Obviously his 2019 season should hold a good bit more weight when making a judgement on him. I have to think a least part of his decline is due to the Pirates being absolutely **** at coaching up pitchers. I mean almost every single pitcher worth a damn seems to turn into an all-star caliber pitcher once they leave. Musgrove, Glasnow, Cole...
 
McCann'sCans said:
Like Carp, I'd love an innings eater who could pitch to a 4.00-4.50 ERA. Unfortunately, that person doesn't exist right now.

Quick flip through baseballsavant profiles of the starting pitchers available (Teheran, Richards, Cueto, Urena, Arrieta, Archer, Anderson, Happ) it becomes quite clear why they are all available. You look at all of their profiles and they are in the bottom 10% of virtually everything- how hard they throw it, how well they spin it, whiff rate, hard hit rate, expected batting average, expected slugging, barrel %...everything. I'd feel differently if there were a profile or two that suggested a potential turnaround season with some tweaks, but they are all just toast.

Unless there is an option that comes along due to a late spring training cut (I don't see us burning more prospect capital), then we are probably better off rolling with the kids. If we're going to end up signing someone who puts up an ERA in the 5.00-6.00 range regardless, I'd rather just throw the 6-8 young guys to best case get some upside and worst case rule some people out who we can move on from for good.

Obviously that calculus could change if a reasonable option hits the market in the next week- and Atlanta would probably be a priority destination for a vet looking to contend- but that seems unlikely.
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I think AA saw the same thing we all saw, and pivoted to creating "SP depth" indirectly by signing McHugh and Jansen.

It's a pretty good pivot, but relies on a manager competent at managing a modern pitching staff. I'll put it nicely and say I'm skeptical Snit is the man to pull that off, but hopefully the FO can help guide him to deploying these arms in a reasonable manner. However, I suspect we are going to see more than a few leads lost because Snit insisted on stretching a tiring Muller or Wright or Davidson 5 innings...all in a the name of "resting the best BP in the league", and, "giving this kid a chance at the W".
 
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