Arcia isn't real but will be fine until ozzie is back
GDT 6/15/22: Braves @ Gnats - Contreras Behind the Dish
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
Arcia isn't real but will be fine until ozzie is back
I think it's far more likely Strider and Soroka are part of a semi 6 man rotation where every SP gets plenty of extra rest.
I'm a fan of this. If you got the horses why not.
Are there numbers showing how a pitcher does third time through the lineup on normal or extra rest?
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Well...
In 70 PAs Harris is rocking a .400 BABIP, is soundly outperforming is .326 xwOBA with a .385 wOBA, and is only walking 4.3% of the time. If any early career profile suggest massive negative regression is coming, it's that one. I would expect some struggles are imminent, and he will have to adjust...probably to pitchers working him on the inside part of the plate.
In 107 PAs Contreras looks mostly legit. The .333 BABIP is high, but not crazy. The 11.3% BB rate suggests he has a good approach. The HR/FB rate of 40% is obviously unsustainable, but losing a few HRs won't tank his value. He looks like a legit bat that needs some time at DH in addition to 50% of the PAs at catcher.
Arcia is living off a .439 BABIP. It is a mirage.
Harris obviously won't hit the way he currently has forever. But even if he was in line with his xwOBA of 326 that would be good for ~108 WRC+. Which with his defense and base running makes him a 5-6 WAR player. It's early but it looks like his base running and defense are around prime Inciarte levels. Remains to be seen what he will become with the bat but if he's an above-average hitter he's going to be a hell of a player.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I’m not trying to paint what Arcia is doing as real but it is interesting that his wOBA is almost the same as his xwOBA… I don’t think he’s a regular starter through the year but I think he has found something in the new swing to be a useful part time player.
The walk rate from Harris is a little concerning but didn’t he walk quite a bit more in the minors? Maybe that will start to normalize a bit more
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Anytime BABIP is looked at you should also reference batted ball profile.
So Arcia hasn't been crazy 'lucky' but we should also not expect him to perform at this level. Unless of course you think he is lucky to hit the ball hard and then thats a different story.
So Arcia hasn't been crazy 'lucky' but we should also not expect him to perform at this level. Unless of course you think he is lucky to hit the ball hard and then thats a different story.
Nobody maintains a BABIP of .400+. The highest true talent BABIP is roughly .350.
Now, of course, that's not to say folks can't carry an elevated BABIP for an extended period of time. Chris Johnson's 2013 batting title is a good example of an unsustainable BABIP being sustained for an abnormally long time. Somehow the Braves didn't understand that, and gave him an extension that didn't work out too well.
So while Arcia could maybe carry a .400 BABIP for a couple months, it is far more likely it drops to something much closer to the usual MLB value of .300-.320.
I think with Harris we are seeing the fact he was rushed a bit showing up in the low walk rate. I don't think Harris will ever be a big time walk guy, but I'd be willing to bet he's not Albies level aggressive.
I'm just wondering if something is different. Of course I don't have every possible sample size from his career of a similar length but something is happening with Arcia whereby he is seeing the ball better and making better contact. Is that lucky? I'm not sure.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
I was thinking about the Harris lack of walks and almost wondered if it partially has to do with Acuna hitting behind him in the order. So he gets more pitches to hit. Obviously that's not the entire story but could account for some of it. He will certainly have adjustments to make.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
In his latest newsletter, Bowman indicated that Muller will likely be an option at some point again this year.
I am in no way discounting the possibility that Arcia may have made real improvements. The way the Braves handled him from day 1 suggests they saw someone they could unlock into being a cheap everyday SS when Swanson left.
All I'm saying is there's no way his true talent now includes a .429 BABIP. I'll bet anyone any amount of money they are willing to lose that he won't sustain that.
After almost 2000 MLB PAs could he have suddenly changed into a guy with a 10%+ walk rate, and a .200+ point ISO, thus becoming a .300/.400/.500 monster at SS immediately after putting on a Braves uniform? Maybe, but I doubt it. I doubt he become Juan Soto playing SS.
More likely over a full season he's marginally improved over his career .246/.298/.371 career line to something like .260/.330/.450. Pair slightly above average offense like that with adequate SS defense, and the Braves are looking at a 2-3 win SS for the low price of $1.5M. I'd certainly take that over dishing out $150M+ to Swanson, or giving a player like Turner $300M+.
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Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Harris will struggle. Everyone does. Plus he's young and doesn't have a ton of at bats. Teams also don't have much data on him b/c there isn't much data.
I haven't watched every pitch. What I have seen looks like he has a pretty good eye. I don't think he'll have a very high walk rate hitting 9th unless he shows more power. Don't walk the 9th hitter.
I agree with the poster who said he'd still be very excited with a 100 wrc+ His defense with an avg bat is big time for us.
Agreed. Not trying to argue his BABIP is sustainable. Just adding color as to the reason it’s so high. The question is how much of a regression should we expect in his batted ball profile because over his time with the Braves that has taken a leap which in turn has produced high BABIPs.
What the folks in favor of offering Dansby a market-value extension, or God forbid spending HUGE money chasing someone like Turner or Correa completely miss is that there's absolutely no need to do that. Even the teams that won 14 straight division titles didn't have a star at every position. Sure they had Chipper, Andruw, Javy Lopez, Justice, Furcal, Mac, Teixeira, The Big Three, Huddy, etc., but they also won with Bream, Lemke, Blauser, LaRoche, Quilvio Veras, Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright, John Burkett, and plenty of other "solid" no-names. Given health, it's reasonable to expect well-above average (if not better) production from Olson, Ozzie, Riley, Acuna, Harris, behind the plate, Fried, Wright, potentially Strider, and the pen - league-average or slightly worse players in the other spots makes that group a legitimate contender, and filling those spots with the types of reliable 1-2 win players like Arcia or one of the SSs I mentioned in the other thread should be more than acceptable. The money saved there can be spent on more solid players at other positions, the bench, and depth in the rotation. The goal should be a roster with NO black holes that can soldier through short periods where one or two of the stars is out of the lineup without losing significant ground.
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GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Slippy, we've got a 2:20p start and I ain't about to start a game thread when we're on a 14 game winning streak.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Agreed I was thinking that same thing, but someone may have to come off the bench to be the Arcia of the board
