GDT 6/14/22: Braves @ Gnats - Win it for Ozzie

Enscheff said:
I think 5/110 is reasonable, which probably means he will top it.

My position is still that AA should wait for a Correa type deal to fall in his lap with Arcia as the backup plan.

It would be a disaster if AA plays the role of the Rangers or Tigers where he jumps out first and sets the market. I want him to be the Twins who got a sweet deal on a premium talent. To do so requires being OK with not getting a FA SS, and waiting for the bargain to become available.

I think Arcia was acquired to be that backup plan all along.
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Relying on Arcia as the everyday SS is a disaster. But i highly, highly doubt AA will set the market, that's not his MO.
 
Heyward said:
Relying on Arcia as the everyday SS is a disaster. But i highly, highly doubt AA will set the market, that's not his MO.
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Probably. But the Braves suddenly have two months to see if his offensive improvements are real.
 
Heyward said:
Relying on Arcia as the everyday SS is a disaster. But i highly, highly doubt AA will set the market, that's not his MO.
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Agreed. Arcia can be used to look like we are going with him as the everyday SS so he doesn’t look desperate but if Arcia ends up the SS at the end of the winter then AA miserably failed.
 
I know it’s a small sample but Arcia has a 150 wRC+ and a 11.5% walk rate. Yes he has a high BABIP but his wOBA at .391 is actually less than his xwOBA at .422

There are some promising signs in Arica’s development since he’s been with us.
 
Hudson2 said:
Agreed. Arcia can be used to look like we are going with him as the everyday SS so he doesn’t look desperate but if Arcia ends up the SS at the end of the winter then AA miserably failed.
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Disagree.

Miserably failing would be to hand out a contract equivalent of what the Rangers paid Semien or the Tigers paid Baez. Those were awful deals, and I'd much rather have Arcia than something like Swanson for $180M.
 
Enscheff said:
Disagree.

Miserably failing would be to hand out a contract equivalent of what the Rangers paid Semien or the Tigers paid Baez. Those were awful deals, and I'd much rather have Arcia than something like Swanson for $180M.
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I wouldn’t pay Swanson top money. But if AA goes into next season with Arcia he better have a lot bigger bat in LF.
 
Enscheff said:
Disagree.

Miserably failing would be to hand out a contract equivalent of what the Rangers paid Semien or the Tigers paid Baez. Those were awful deals, and I'd much rather have Arcia than something like Swanson for $180M.
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He can go cheap at SS if he lands a top tier LF bat then i guess. Acuna, Harris, FA bat with Ozuna at DH. I havent looked to see who is a FA in the outfield though.
 
Heyward said:
He can go cheap at SS if he lands a top tier LF bat then i guess. Acuna, Harris, FA bat with Ozuna at DH. I havent looked to see who is a FA in the outfield though.
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So it turns out spending money just because it's there isn't a solid strategy to building a winning team, as shown by every team that has inexplicably spent "stupid money" on FAs. Overpaying a SS is just as bad as overpaying a LF.

I don't have a creative way to improve the current roster other than SS/LF in mind, but there must be a better option than handing out terrible contracts at those positions. Surely there is a trade for a short term salary dump to be had somewhere.
 
Enscheff said:
So it turns out spending money just because it's there isn't a solid strategy to building a winning team, as shown by every team that has inexplicably spent "stupid money" on FAs. Overpaying a SS is just as bad as overpaying a LF.

I don't have a creative way to improve the current roster other than SS/LF in mind, but there must be a better option than handing out terrible contracts at those positions. Surely there is a trade for a short term salary dump to be had somewhere.
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JPX suggested Marte as a potential salary dump if D-Backs want a longer term rebuild.
 
WaitingFor2017 said:
Would AA further alienate the "casual" fan and let Dansby walk after letting Freddie walk a year earlier?

You have to think about possible extensions for Riley and Fried as well as finding an OF and SP help this offseason, too, to go along with SS.
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My son made an interesting point about this….. go out and win the WS again, and there would be no alienation. They’d understand that AA knows what the hell he is doing.
 
Enscheff said:
So it turns out spending money just because it's there isn't a solid strategy to building a winning team, as shown by every team that has inexplicably spent "stupid money" on FAs. Overpaying a SS is just as bad as overpaying a LF.

I don't have a creative way to improve the current roster other than SS/LF in mind, but there must be a better option than handing out terrible contracts at those positions. Surely there is a trade for a short term salary dump to be had somewhere.
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He's having a bad offensive year (mainly because of terrible BABIP luck), but I feel sure the Marlins would love to get Miguel Rojas' money off the books and slide Chisholm to SS. Really good defensively, great clubhouse guy (pretty sure he's their Captain), and an inexpensive short-term commitment (under contract for this year and next at $5 million per) that could buy even more time for Shewmake/Grissom to develop - you'd control both he and Arcia next season. Rojas is a solid 1-2 win player who has always hovered around the .300 xwOBA mark.

Amed Rosario only has one arbitration year left, and you KNOW the Guardians are always looking to save a buck.

While he's not so great defensively at SS, the Twins have Jorge Polanco locked up for 3/30 starting next season with the last two years as team options - would be easy to get out from under his money after EITHER of the last two seasons if Shewmake or Grissom develop. You know they're always looking to pinch pennies - ESPECIALLY if Correa stays.
 
Hudson2 said:
We’re winning without FF and we’ll win without Dansby. AA knows what he’s doing.
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I’m convinced AA acquired Arcia last year just because he knew Swanson would want too much money.

dude has his team looking at scenarios 2-3 years in advanced.
 
chop2chip said:
Marte isn’t a salary dump. They just extended him!
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Yea, that would be a legit trade, not a salary dump, from Arizona’s perspective. But, like I said, it’s also more of a dream scenario in terms of covering for Albies now / upgrading LF later.
 
Fair - I roster Marte in a fantasy league so I'm a big fan. I guess he would still hold a good amount of surplus value.
 
The Chosen One said:
I’m convinced AA acquired Arcia last year just because he knew Swanson would want too much money.

dude has his team looking at scenarios 2-3 years in advanced.
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Me too. I've always thought he was the Plan B after Swanson left. Basically the poor man's version of LA trading for Turner while Seager was still there, and the BoSox signing Story while Xander was still there. Arcia represents a low end MLB caliber SS that is very cheap, with the bonus of someone thinking they can unlock more out of him...which maybe they have already.

While I wouldn't love Arcia at SS full time, I would much prefer that to giving a FA SS a terrible contract.
 
Enscheff said:
That’s because this talk show probably took the number directly from Ivan’s article.

The problem with that 6/156 contract Ivan came up with is it assumes he produces 4.9 war this year, and then age regresses from there..4.3 to 4.1 to 3.6 etc.

WAR projections don’t work that way unfortunately. Teams don’t just assume a player’s most recent WAR is the baseline he will decline from.

In short, teams will most certainly not be valuing Swanson as a true talent 5 win player. They will probably value him as a 3-4 win guy, and he should still clear $100M.
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Funny the timing: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/if-2022-is-dansbys-swansong-in-atlanta-its-been-a-great-one/

So FG is valuing him exactly as I suggested: a 3.5 WAR player in 2023, and declining from there in the typical age related manner.

A projected 15.7 WAR over the next 6 years is what? Roughly 5/130 or 6/150? Very close to the 6/140 with an opt out Story got.

Do I want to see AA drop $150M on Swanson? Nope.
 
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