GDT 6/14/22: Braves @ Gnats - Win it for Ozzie
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
Must have been planted by his agent...
NYCBrave
Well-known member
That was the exact number they gave today in an article on Talking Chop
Hudson2
Well-known member
Shortstops got paid well last offseason so I could see somebody giving him that but I hope it’s not us. When his defense starts to go so will a lot of his value. Fun fact, his dads name is Cooter Swanson lol.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I won’t say no way because who knows this stuff anymore. But that seems 5-7m AAV too high. Dansby isn’t a high ceiling player like Javy Baez, so I don’t see many teams dreaming on him in the same way,
I see Dansby worth between 10-12 WAR over the next five years. That’s around ~$80m. I could see Dansby plays well enough he convinces a dumb team to offer a 6th year.
2023 - 3 WAR
2024 - 3 WAR
2025 - 2 WAR
2026 - 2 WAR
2027 - 1 WAR
WaitingFor2017
Well-known member
Would AA further alienate the "casual" fan and let Dansby walk after letting Freddie walk a year earlier?
You have to think about possible extensions for Riley and Fried as well as finding an OF and SP help this offseason, too, to go along with SS.
You have to think about possible extensions for Riley and Fried as well as finding an OF and SP help this offseason, too, to go along with SS.
That’s because this talk show probably took the number directly from Ivan’s article.
The problem with that 6/156 contract Ivan came up with is it assumes he produces 4.9 war this year, and then age regresses from there..4.3 to 4.1 to 3.6 etc.
WAR projections don’t work that way unfortunately. Teams don’t just assume a player’s most recent WAR is the baseline he will decline from.
In short, teams will most certainly not be valuing Swanson as a true talent 5 win player. They will probably value him as a 3-4 win guy, and he should still clear $100M.
Average of last three years pro-rated for 162 comes out to ~4.8WAR. I'd agree with your high range and I'd think they'd keep him close to that high range until his age 32 season. Definitely could see teams going 5 years with a projected 14-15 WAR.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
talking chop has an article on this. So Enscheff can come on here and light a fire to it.
It's a STACKED SS market. Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, Anderson (club probably picks up the options), etc....
I love what Dansby is doing this year and has done for us overall. There is no way I would pay that man $100 million. He's too streaky as a hitter. Too much value tied up in his defense.
I'd probably be looking for someone to bite on a high annual value deal for less years. Or go all in and get a real impact hitter that I could move to DH or a corner position if they get old.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I’m also leery of giving contracts to players in their upper 20s who are only now having a career year in a contract year. I love Dansby but those cases don’t usually seem to work out awesome. Still… he’s a local boy and he provides some real fire when he’s on
Don't think he cares since fans are showing up at a record pace despite letting Freeman walk.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
That was the central estimate, assuming he produces as expected going forward, given that he's banked a healthy helping of fwar already.
But I agree teams won't (or shouldn't) be exclusively considering 2022, even if he ends up with ~5 fwar. I have to think he'll come in somewhere between the "Most Conservative" contract estimate ($40m over two years) and that "Central" estimate—maybe something like $110m over five years? And honestly, that doesn't seem unreasonable—especially given that playing at the top of the SS market likely means $250m+ in commitments. Correa or Turner would be fun, though.
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Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Problem with SS is we dont have anyone in the system to replace him. And the options to replace him are probably going to cost more than what Dansby gets on the FA market (Xander, Trea, Correa). Our system isnt deep enough to do another trade for a SS. I'd pay him, probably not that 6/156 price though.
We do have alot of money coming off the books though, if you assume Will Smith and Morton's options are declined, as well as some other guys on expiring contracts. Plus alot of cheap talent already on the roster. AA could make a splash, but can he convince someone to take a high AAV, lower year deal, that i'm unsure of.
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Hudson2
Well-known member
I think some team gets dumb and signs him first thinking he’ll be the cheaper of all the SS and they’re getting a bargain. AA will almost have to sign one of the other 3 at that point.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I think it might come down to the years with Dansby and not APY/AAV.
I think 5/110 is reasonable, which probably means he will top it.
My position is still that AA should wait for a Correa type deal to fall in his lap with Arcia as the backup plan.
It would be a disaster if AA plays the role of the Rangers or Tigers where he jumps out first and sets the market. I want him to be the Twins who got a sweet deal on a premium talent. To do so requires being OK with not getting a FA SS, and waiting for the bargain to become available.
I think Arcia was acquired to be that backup plan all along.
Mad Dog Murph
Well-known member
AA is not really known as GM that sets the market. Not sure he’s ever been that, so why would he suddenly change his MO now?