2022 MLB Draft Thread
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Tapate50
Well-known member
Longenhan likes Owen a lot...and thinks JR Ritchie got pushed down a bit because he didn't hold velo late in outings, otherwise the stuff was there for a top pick.
He said Phillips was high velo guy, with really average secondary offerings. Said we have good track record reworking those secondary pitches during rehab.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Braves go against a lot of the old scouting pattern of avoiding shorter (6-0 or below) RHPs. They've mined that vein fairly effectively.
Hope they get them all signed. As I said earlier, curious about the bonus numbers and how that shakes out. Could see a couple of way underslot guys early today if they need to push more money toward Richie. Of course, we have to remember that Anthopoulos isn't afraid to walk away from a high draft pick (witness Carter Stewart in Atlanta and Tyler Beede and Phil Bickford while in Toronto). I'd hope they have a number in place, but the strategy of waiting until a lower slot to draft Richie makes sense if he's viewed as someone who will be difficult to sign.
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50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Except that they aren't built similarly. Allard was a rail in high school. Murphy looks like he's more filled out physically. I think that plays to Law's critique that there isn't much room for more physical development for Murphy, but that's an entirely different issue.
striker42
Well-known member
Strider is an interesting case. This is a great interview with him: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atlanta...ect-spencer-strider-nerds-out-on-his-arsenal/
He'd been throwing 2 seamers his entire life, then he has TJ surgery, does a mechanical overhaul, and figures out he should start throwing 4 seamers. IIRC, he has one season after coming off TJ, sees a velocity jump, and gets drafted. We were fortunate in getting Strider before everyone realized exactly what he had become.
striker42
Well-known member
The lack of room for physical development is the issue I'm talking about. Allard was even skinnier than Murphy but they're pretty much the same height and neither had a frame that you could project a jump in velocity from. Murphy and Allard on draft day are both undersized guys with low 90's fastballs that move well and with excellent secondary stuff.
My main concern with Murphy is exactly what Law is concerned about. It's the primary knock on Murphy pretty much everywhere. You can look at the kid and know he's going to be an undersized pitcher (same with Allard). If Murphy was 6-4 with broad shoulders he'd have been a top 15 pick with his control and secondary stuff. If Murphy can get his fastball to sit 94+ then you're looking at a potential TOR starter. I just don't know where that velocity will come from.
Tapate50
Well-known member
So you are saying we have a TOP notch draft team?
striker42
Well-known member
I've never said we don't. I don't know if you can judge our draft/international signing team at the moment considering the sanctions from the Coppy era, the truncated 2020 draft, and the missed year for a lot of minor leaguers. I'm often quite happy with our later round picks, I've just had a tendency to disagree with the first round approach.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Agree.
That said, it seems like the new drafting under AA has been better at finding guys later in the draft than early. The first rounders in particular have not been the high upside guys most want to see in a first round guy. Even when they went for crazy velocity, it was a guy that most people seemed to think we as reliever.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I said this earlier in the thread. There isn’t much separating guys drafted in the first three rounds (outside of a few guys). Your example you mentioned is exactly why no one should be too excited or upset about any particular pick. There’s not near enough sample size on any of these guys to draw any sort of conclusion.
it’s still too early on pretty much every AA first round pick.
there’s more non-early picks than early picks, so not surprising there’s more guys who have been deemed a “successful pick” in later rounds. expectations are also lower. just goes to show much of the draft is a crapshoot and highly dependent on the organizations who are scouting AND developing them.
the large majority of it is a total crapshoot. of course there are some studs but you’re right, from a certain point in the first round on it’s a lot of similar players and everything comes down to team preference and philosophy.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
“The plan all along was to try to get upside. The guys that could impact the major league level,” Brown said. “We took some young guys that we really feel good about. We think they can impact the major league level. Not only with their fastball, but these guys have secondary stuff. They are strike throwers. We’ve felt good about the plan of taking upside that could one day impact the major league team.”
Director of scouting sees them as upside guys.
Ceiling of mid rotation does not seem upside to me, like Shuster. If Shuster is a great 4th starter for 10 years he will likely be in the top 30 of WAR for that draft. So for me it can be a successful pick, very successful pick and still not be an upside play. But Brown seems to either have another definition or he thinks Murphy can be more than a mid rotation guy.
Interesting question...
How many teams out there are dying to draft and develop kids they hope can turn into Anderson? Guys they think Shuster has a good chance to turn into - productive mid- to back-end MLB starting Pitchers that contribute for 3-5 years or more?
(Clue - a whole lot of them.)
These are the lifeblood of successful organizations - players developed internally that contribute. Very few "stars" were drafted and developed by the same teams they wind up becoming stars for anymore - you're looking for as many 2 WAR players that you don't have to go outside of your system and actually PAY to fill out your roster. If you have 3-4 SPs like that for depth behind your Frieds/Wrights/hopefully Striders, you can afford to pay for the players available in the open market that you need to make you contenders.
Three $20-ish million AAV players, three $15-ish million AAV players, and three $10-ish million players supplemented by a bunch of 2 WAR arb-eligible or renewal players will make you a contender without ever getting close to flirting with the luxury tax.
Tapate50
Well-known member
FG Day One Review:
Atlanta had a remarkable first day, taking three high school pitchers and a late-season pop-up college arm. Owen Murphy and JR Ritchie both have prototypical prep pitching profiles as projectable righties with vertically-oriented fastball/breaking ball combinations. Phillips had a huge velo boost this spring, into the upper-90s, then blew out. The Braves will need to polish his secondaries after his TJ rehab. Burkhalter’s stuff was incredible during the College World Series, another “tip-of-the-iceberg” prospect for the Braves. He could end up with three above-average pitches. Part of why he fell is because his delivery features a lot of effort that points to the bullpen.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/
ARZ had a heckuva first day.
Atlanta had a remarkable first day, taking three high school pitchers and a late-season pop-up college arm. Owen Murphy and JR Ritchie both have prototypical prep pitching profiles as projectable righties with vertically-oriented fastball/breaking ball combinations. Phillips had a huge velo boost this spring, into the upper-90s, then blew out. The Braves will need to polish his secondaries after his TJ rehab. Burkhalter’s stuff was incredible during the College World Series, another “tip-of-the-iceberg” prospect for the Braves. He could end up with three above-average pitches. Part of why he fell is because his delivery features a lot of effort that points to the bullpen.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/
ARZ had a heckuva first day.
IslandBrave
Mashin' to Mississippi
Round 3
3
Baldwin, Drake
Missouri State (MO)
USA
C
L/R
4YR JR
6' 1" 210lbs
DOB:03/28/01
A two-time all-Wisconsin hockey forward in high school, Baldwin led the state with 43 goals as a junior. Both the Badger State and Missouri State are underrated sources of baseball talent, and he has played his way into the first five rounds of the 2022 Draft. After splitting time between catcher and DH a year ago, he has taken over full-time duties behind the plate and emerged as one of the better offensive prospects at that position. Baldwin employs a simple approach with a modest leg lift at the plate, making consistent hard contact to all fields. The left-handed hitter rarely chases pitches out of the zone, doing damage when pitchers challenge him and accepting walks when they don't. He's doing a better job of tapping into his power this spring, showing 20-homer potential, and his pop plays to all fields. Though he's a well below-average runner, Baldwin is athletic and takes charge behind the plate. There were questions about his receiving entering 2022, but he has made strides and the consensus is that he's adequate and can get to average with more development. He has average arm strength but he'll need to improve the quickness and accuracy of his throws to combat the running game.
3
Baldwin, Drake
Missouri State (MO)
USA
C
L/R
4YR JR
6' 1" 210lbs
DOB:03/28/01
A two-time all-Wisconsin hockey forward in high school, Baldwin led the state with 43 goals as a junior. Both the Badger State and Missouri State are underrated sources of baseball talent, and he has played his way into the first five rounds of the 2022 Draft. After splitting time between catcher and DH a year ago, he has taken over full-time duties behind the plate and emerged as one of the better offensive prospects at that position. Baldwin employs a simple approach with a modest leg lift at the plate, making consistent hard contact to all fields. The left-handed hitter rarely chases pitches out of the zone, doing damage when pitchers challenge him and accepting walks when they don't. He's doing a better job of tapping into his power this spring, showing 20-homer potential, and his pop plays to all fields. Though he's a well below-average runner, Baldwin is athletic and takes charge behind the plate. There were questions about his receiving entering 2022, but he has made strides and the consensus is that he's adequate and can get to average with more development. He has average arm strength but he'll need to improve the quickness and accuracy of his throws to combat the running game.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I like the sound of his offensive profile.