They’ve lost plenty of games. They’re not unbeatable or anything. They’ve just been very lucky. Their xWL is .5 game’s different than ours. We just need to keep going and wait for their luck to even out. I have us winning 30 games the rest of the way starting tonight. That should get us where we need to be.
Around the Majors - 2022 Version
- Thread starter thethe
- Start date
They’ve lost plenty of games. They’re not unbeatable or anything. They’ve just been very lucky. Their xWL is .5 game’s different than ours. We just need to keep going and wait for their luck to even out. I have us winning 30 games the rest of the way starting tonight. That should get us where we need to be.
I wish Snit hadn’t punted so many games the first half.
we haven’t had a real challenge in the division since our 2018 run began. So he’s never felt he had to manage a full season and just waited for things to play out. Would rather not play the dodgers in the LDS.
we haven’t had a real challenge in the division since our 2018 run began. So he’s never felt he had to manage a full season and just waited for things to play out. Would rather not play the dodgers in the LDS.
Mets have a great rotation that has a sub 3.50 ERA pitcher in every rotation slot. When all of your starters are going 6 innings and giving up 3 runs or less the vast majority of the time, you're gonna win a lot of games.
That being said, they have a pretty tough schedule over the next 2 weeks with Philly, NYY, and Dodgers coming up. Meanwhile, we have Pitt, Colorado, and Miami, and Oakland coming up. If ever there was a time to overtake them, it's likely gonna be in the next 2-3 weeks. After that, their schedule gets a lot easier as ours gets a lot tougher.
That being said, they have a pretty tough schedule over the next 2 weeks with Philly, NYY, and Dodgers coming up. Meanwhile, we have Pitt, Colorado, and Miami, and Oakland coming up. If ever there was a time to overtake them, it's likely gonna be in the next 2-3 weeks. After that, their schedule gets a lot easier as ours gets a lot tougher.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Yeah we really aced this stretch of Mets/Astros no matter what happens tomorrow. We have put ourselves in the position to at least make a good run at it.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Well, it looks like DeGrom and Scherzer for the Yankees series. They have 4 with the Rockies this weekend, while we play at the Cardinals who are playing damn good ball right now. It's just gonna be so hard to gain ground if they win games like this past Sunday and beating Nola and Wheeler back to back while not even using DeGrom/Scherzer. Even if we win the WC best of 3 matchup, we get a date with the Dodgers in a best of 5. Braves could win that but man, that Dodgers team is just insane.
msstate7
Well-known member
Wouldn't the divisional round be lowest seed against dodgers? How can say with certainty that we would be the lowest seed? I don't think the cards/brewers are a lock over any of the WC teams
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Nope they don’t re-seed according to the format that was released. So if we are the 4, we will play the 1 in the NLDS.
msstate7
Well-known member
The dodgers actually get screwed in that deal then. Best record in baseball might earn them a series with a 100-win team
Giants played the Dodgers last year as well, albeit not the same format. Both 100 win teams.
msstate7
Well-known member
Not reseeding after WC round is dumb to me. The best team should get the reward of facing the team with the least wins. Nfl does it right in this case
Seems like unless we win division we are guaranteed to play Dodgers.
On bright side - better odds playing the best team in a best of 5. We have a real 4 man rotation so not being aligned somewhat less of an issue - and Mets in 5 game series that the two aces can potentially start 3 or 4 of 5 would be brutal. So weirdly could actually be our best path - vs drawing Mets in first round as an example and then Dodgers.
That said snit just killing us. Our World Series odds this year are just so dramatically higher if we just win the division. Really should be going all out…
On bright side - better odds playing the best team in a best of 5. We have a real 4 man rotation so not being aligned somewhat less of an issue - and Mets in 5 game series that the two aces can potentially start 3 or 4 of 5 would be brutal. So weirdly could actually be our best path - vs drawing Mets in first round as an example and then Dodgers.
That said snit just killing us. Our World Series odds this year are just so dramatically higher if we just win the division. Really should be going all out…
msstate7
Well-known member
I think the short series point is a good one.
WaitingFor2017
Well-known member
I know it wouldn’t have benefited us last year, but I’m of the belief that winning your division should guarantee you a playoff spot — but not a top 3 guarantee. Go with the 6 best records and rank them 1-6 and seed from there.
The Cardinals are going to get a cozy 3 seed after beating up on Pittsburgh, Chicago and Cincinnati all year. They have been awful against current playoff teams.
The Cardinals are going to get a cozy 3 seed after beating up on Pittsburgh, Chicago and Cincinnati all year. They have been awful against current playoff teams.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
actually the Cards being the #3 division winner might be a good thing. They get to play the #3 wild card team (Padres/Faillies) and if that team beats them, then they would play the Dodgers and if we win our wild card series, we get the Mutts in round 2. I think this scenario is very plausable.
msstate7
Well-known member
That's what I thought, but someone said on other thread there's no re-seed
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
The Royals are calling up Drew Waters and starting him today. Guess we'll see how that goes.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Not that this necessarily applies to Waters.
But I think you’ll see a lot of players called up in August moving forward. If you can exhaust a players ROY eligibility then you can play them next year without fear of losing the extra year of control. This might be a reason to just keep Grissom up and get him a lot of PA’s once Ozzie is back.
(This is probably a good outcome for players since it incentivizes them to be called up sooner than they should, but it could make for some less than stellar ROY fields in the future).
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CyYoung31
Shift Leader
There isn’t, which is the dumbest **** of all-time. That means the 110-win Dodgers could potentially have to play the 100-win Braves in a best of 5, while the 2nd seeded Mets get to play the 6th seed, which at this point would be about an 85-win Phillies team.
If I was a Dodger fan I would be livid if that scenario plays out.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Didn't they also put a limit on how many guys you can bring up in September? If that is the case, you're probably going to see a lot of older non-contributing players get sent down or DFA'd so they can get a look at AAA guys at the major league level.
As per Waters, don't know what to expect. His power numbers and walk rate are up since going to Omaha, but he's still K-ing at around 30%. Like I've written in the past, back when major league benches were longer, guys like Waters--who could run and play defense--would find their way onto big league rosters as a 5th or 6th OF and stick around for a while. Waters may be more than that and it will be interesting to see how his big league career gets off the ground.