GDT 8/24/22: Braves @ Pirates - Afternoon Sweeping
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Think we blow this one out boys.
Did snit learn that you don’t have to do a Sunday lineup with a day off the following day.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Huh... I didn't know Rodon was having such a good year. Fried's walk rate is sexy.
chop2chip
Well-known member
The Cy Young race in the NL is essentially a four horse race + Diaz. I think Diaz will get some votes but this year's starter class seems too strong for him to realistically win it.
Sandy: He's the favorite based on IP and ERA (and he's got the narrative because of the complete games. He'll probably win with a strong September.
Rodon: No idea why he's not getting more love. You can make a strong statistical argument that he should win. He's going to get paid this offseason.
Fried: WAR, FIP, ERA, Wins, etc... he's at the top of the leaderboards. He'd win going away if he struck out 10 per 9 instead of 8 per 9.
Nola: Always a WAR darling. He's not going to win because of his W/L record.
Gonsolin, Burnes, Wheeler, Scherzer, Strider, etc. have weaker cases for one reason or another. Gonsolin would have won the Cy Young in a blow out 15 years ago based on W/L and ERA, but his underlying stats are not nearly as strong.
click me
Sandy: He's the favorite based on IP and ERA (and he's got the narrative because of the complete games. He'll probably win with a strong September.
Rodon: No idea why he's not getting more love. You can make a strong statistical argument that he should win. He's going to get paid this offseason.
Fried: WAR, FIP, ERA, Wins, etc... he's at the top of the leaderboards. He'd win going away if he struck out 10 per 9 instead of 8 per 9.
Nola: Always a WAR darling. He's not going to win because of his W/L record.
Gonsolin, Burnes, Wheeler, Scherzer, Strider, etc. have weaker cases for one reason or another. Gonsolin would have won the Cy Young in a blow out 15 years ago based on W/L and ERA, but his underlying stats are not nearly as strong.
click me
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Oh the fun arguments against Fried early on because he "Walked so many people in the minors"
The response was always "You guys aren't seeing when those walks are coming in relation to his blister issues"
The response to that reply "You're a homer!"
chop2chip
Well-known member
weird that you can see this.. i tried posting that image and it wasn't showing up on my browser which is why I reposted.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I replied with quotes to see your linked image and then just copied it in my browser. You made me work for it.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Don't make me go dig up your Jace Peterson posts because I will if you keep this up
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I don’t agree with this. He was walking too many. But I think he decided he would sacrifice some strikeouts to reduce the free passes. He decided to pitch more in the zone which has worked for him.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Obviously you know it's a lot of BABIP luck. I think I saw his expected on base was 360 or so. That said.....if he can have a 360 OBP that would be AWESOME. Especially as he is showing some power. I don't think he's a 30 hr guy, but maybe he could slug 450-490.
Lasted longer than Justin Upton!
chop2chip
Well-known member
There will be major regression for Grissom because prime Honus Wagner couldn't maintain his luck on balls in play
xBA of .318
BABIP of .474
However, he has some strong underlying metrics that would be promising even with BABIP regression.
16.7% k (22% league average)
xSLUG .498 (.406 league average)
34% line drive (25% league average)
Where my concern lies (at the moment - small sample alert) is his batted ball data isn't very good. He can still be successful with below average EV's (see Jeff McNeill), but we should set our expectations accordingly.
86 EV (31st percentile)
107 Max EV (this is basically peak Ender level --> I expect this will be closer to league average once he has more batted ball events)
chop2chip
Well-known member
Braves would be better off drawing the Mets or Dodgers instead of the Brewers/Phillies/Cardinals, so they are guaranteed to get a night game in the playoffs.
If the Braves do end up settling for a Wild Card I feel pretty confident the team will get the prime time slots among the WC games being the defending world champs and all and a likely high 90's win total.