Official official offseason thread

[JohnAdcox]

I dont want to rain on anyones parade but: Did Spotrac or the MLBTrumors articles include Michael Harris II contract money. I cant see it in the Spotrac figures nor does the said article seem to include it in their figures.

MLBTrumors mentions Harris's salary in the second paragraph.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

MLBTrumors mentions Harris's salary in the second paragraph.

Thanks but Its still a mystery to me. Spotrac lists 15 guaranteed contracts counting Odorizzi but not counting Harris. Their total is $159M and adding in arb etc $188M. Lux tax is $233m. I dont know where Enscheff got his numbers.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Thanks but Its still a mystery to me. Spotrac lists 15 guaranteed contracts counting Odorizzi but not counting Harris. Their total is $159M and adding in arb etc $188M. Lux tax is $233m. I dont know where Enscheff got his numbers.

In the article on MLBtraderumors, it talks about how the contracts given to the young guys are averaged out by the AAV when calculating against the luxury tax. So as the Braves sit, they'd be around $217M give or take

"It should be noted, too, that while the Braves’ bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season should check in around $193MM (as things currently stand), the luxury bill is quite a bit higher. That’s the one “downside” to locking in so many stars so early; those extensions come with inherent luxury hits that would not have existed had the team gone year-to-year. Luxury taxation is based on the average annual value of a contract, so keeping Strider and Harris on one-year, pre-arbitration contracts for the 2023 season would’ve meant they’d count for around $1.5MM combined against the tax threshold. Instead, they’ll now come with a combined $21.5MM hit. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez already has the Braves projected for a bit more than $217MM in luxury obligations — only about $16MM shy of next year’s $233MM first-tier threshold."

 

[Hudson2]

Regardless of what the numbers are the Braves have the money for SS and another piece if they need it. They haven’t done all of this to let the team slip. I’m not worried about payroll at all.

 

[Heyward]

Regardless of what the numbers are the Braves have the money for SS and another piece if they need it. They haven’t done all of this to let the team slip. I’m not worried about payroll at all.

Yeah we wouldnt have picked up Charlie's option if we were short for money. AA has enough to do what he needs to do. Opening day payroll will be the largest it's been.

 

[Hudson2]

Yeah we wouldnt have picked up Charlie's option if we were short for money. AA has enough to do what he needs to do. Opening day payroll will be the largest it's been.

Yep. The Braves and Swanson only have mutual interest if the Braves meet Dansbys number. This would have been taken care of already if they were close. Turner will get more than Swanson so I could see the Dodgers go after Dansby quick. I hope we sign Correa to be honest. He’s probably the best defender and all around hitter. None of these guys are gonna get 10/300 like was given out in the past.

 

[Heyward]

Yep. The Braves and Swanson only have mutual interest if the Braves meet Dansbys number. This would have been taken care of already if they were close. Turner will get more than Swanson so I could see the Dodgers go after Dansby quick. I hope we sign Correa to be honest. He’s probably the best defender and all around hitter. None of these guys are gonna get 10/300 like was given out in the past.

I want Correa too, but worried what kind of deal he gets. I think Dansby will be the last of the big 4 to sign.

 

[Hudson2]

I want Correa too, but worried what kind of deal he gets. I think Dansby will be the last of the big 4 to sign.

I think Dansby signs first. Every team will be after him thinking they’ll get the cheapest of the 4. AA won’t give the opt out and NTC so that’ll hurt with Boras and CC. Xander isn’t gonna stay at SS long so he’s out. Turner I think intrigues us but like Swanson his speed will decline first and that’ll lower his value big time. Correa is the best and safest bet long term.

 

[The Tariff King]

I think Dansby signs first. Every team will be after him thinking they’ll get the cheapest of the 4. AA won’t give the opt out and NTC so that’ll hurt with Boras and CC. Xander isn’t gonna stay at SS long so he’s out. Turner I think intrigues us but like Swanson his speed will decline first and that’ll lower his value big time. Correa is the best and safest bet long term.

Dansby isn't gonna go first lol.

He can let the big guys go for their big deals first, then use that as an indicator of how much he's worth.

I still wouldn't give Dans big money. I would have much preferred keeping Freddie than Dansby. Don't care if Dansby is the hometown guy, he's far more streakier than Freddie ever was with us. And at least Freddie also had a better eye at the plate. Dansby goes through these rough stretches where the dude is just swinging at everything under the sun.

 

[Hudson2]

I wouldn’t sign him long term either but somebody will.

 

[UNCBlue012]

I wouldn’t sign him long term either but somebody will.

Absolutely. If the Braves don't someone will. Problem is I'd much prefer Correa or Turner, who will both be more expensive. That said, if signing Dansby means we can be player for a guy like Rodon, I'm in. If not, just give me one of the better SS guys.

 

[Hudson2]

Absolutely. If the Braves don't someone will. Problem is I'd much prefer Correa or Turner, who will both be more expensive. That said, if signing Dansby means we can be player for a guy like Rodon, I'm in. If not, just give me one of the better SS guys.

I like Rodon a lot but I think when they extended Morton that took us out of any big SP market. Correa would upgrade the offense big time. Will he cost more? No doubt but how much more? Dansby I’d guess is wanting 25 per and he’ll probably get it I just hope not from us.

 

[Tapate50]

I like Rodon a lot but I think when they extended Morton that took us out of any big SP market. Correa would upgrade the offense big time. Will he cost more? No doubt but how much more? Dansby I’d guess is wanting 25 per and he’ll probably get it I just hope not from us.

I'd do that for 3 years.

All these guys are gonna drop off at the end of the contract, but Dansby is the last one I'd have faith in offensively at the end of this FA Deal.

 

[Enscheff]

Thanks but Its still a mystery to me. Spotrac lists 15 guaranteed contracts counting Odorizzi but not counting Harris. Their total is $159M and adding in arb etc $188M. Lux tax is $233m. I dont know where Enscheff got his numbers.

I suggest reading the articles we are talking about before commenting. Those mysteries will usually be solved. In this case I literally had a link to the article in question in my quote, and then very clearly quoted the linked article by putting quotes around the blurb I quoted…with quotation marks, which are commonly used for quoting source material….that you didn’t read.

 

[Heyward]

Absolutely. If the Braves don't someone will. Problem is I'd much prefer Correa or Turner, who will both be more expensive. That said, if signing Dansby means we can be player for a guy like Rodon, I'm in. If not, just give me one of the better SS guys.

If we didnt keep Morton, i think we'd be in the SP market for Rodon. We're probably mostly good, and will focus on landing a shortstop. Need to add a BP arm as well.

 

[Hudson2]

I'd do that for 3 years.

All these guys are gonna drop off at the end of the contract, but Dansby is the last one I'd have faith in offensively at the end of this FA Deal.

After what Baez got somebody will give Dansby 5 years for sure.

 

[Heyward]

I'm not opposed to keeping Dansby like most are, just depends what the AAV is. I get the concerns with how he'll age and other stuff.

 

[50PoundHead]

I wouldn’t sign him long term either but somebody will.

Here's the odd thing (at least to me). Anthopoulos went 8 years on Olson and Dansby is the same age. Granted, Swanson plays a premium defensive position and his defense may fall off and erode a good portion of his value, but the same could be said for Olson if his contact skills or power regress dramatically. It just seems that Olson gave such a deep discount in AAV in return for additional years (and his arbitration was bought out) and I don't know if Swanson wants to go the same route or if Anthopoulos wants to go there either.

Buzz around Correa is 7/210 MM. Like Swanson, Correa is 28. I have to believe Turner's market (age 29) will be similar though probably not quite as lucrative as Correa's. Bogaerts is under contract at $20 MM through 2025 with a vesting option through 2026 at $20 MM if he gets 535 PAs in 2025, so that's $60 MM to $80 MM. He's 30 and I doubt anyone is going to be handing out anything past three years for him, meaning his AAV would have to be in the neighborhood of $27 MM for the opt out to make sense IF he were to vest, but he'd easily get more than $20 MM AAV on a three-year deal.

Curious to see how the internal analytics rank these guys, especially on defense.

 

[NYCBrave]

With all of these potential names being thrown around for us to sign, I still really don't think we have as much to spend as most on here assume we do. We will see.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

With all of these potential names being thrown around for us to sign, I still really don't think we have as much to spend as most on here assume we do. We will see.

Agreed. We definitely address SS. I could see some contracts shed such as Pena, Ozuna, Rosario, etc to free up some cash.

I think we do add a pen arm, but I think it will be on the cheaper end such as a Kimbrel or Chapman who should cost less than $10m.